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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-03-2015

Oil fell after the first monthly gain since June as Saudi Arabia stepped up production, lifting OPEC’s output beyond its collective quota for a ninth month. Futures decreased as much as 1.4% in New York. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.6 MMbpd in February, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Oil drops as gain in Saudi Arabian output boosts OPEC production

Hedge funds raised bearish wagers on oil to an all-time high, speculating crude has further to fall as the supply glut keeps swelling. Money managers increased short positions in West Texas Intermediate crude by 17% in the seven days ended Feb. 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-long positions slid to the lowest in seven weeks.

Bearish oil wagers surge to record as glut keeps growing

No longer able to bet on itself, Russia hopes to make it easier, and more attractive, for others. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology (MNR) has forwarded proposals to dramatically overhaul existing foreign investment regimes – particularly, concerning foreign investment in the development of major oil and gas deposits.

Russia Prepared To Sell Strategic Deposits, But Who's Buying?

Oil prices don’t change based on weekly rig count reports. Yet every week, there are proclamations by analysts that oil prices are poised to recover because of some change in the Baker Hughes North American rig count. Others state that U.S. tight oil production will continue to rise despite falling rig counts because of the miracle of shale rig efficiency. What this really means is that nobody has any idea about when oil prices will rebound. As I have previously written, that is because nothing has happened so far to cause a change in oil prices.

Don’t Read Too Much Into The Rig Count




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-04-2015

On Wednesday, Feb. 25, EU Energy Commissioner Maros Sefcovic presented an Energy Union proposal to supply Eastern Europe with gas from domestic sources. This draft document, which was made available to The Guardian, details another “paper” plan by EU officials that is completely out of touch with any sort of realistic system for providing energy as well as the interests of the oil and gas industry in the end-users’ countries.

This Is Why The EU Energy Union Will Fail

From June of 2014 until now, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen approximately 57 percent. As the above chart shows, there have been drops of a similar percentage five times in the last 30 years. The rate of recovery has been different each time, but recovery has come. In addition, since 1999 the chart shows a consistent pattern of higher lows. In other words, oil is a volatile market, but prices are in a long term upward trend.

Here’s What Will Send Oil Prices Back Up Again

In his remarks, American Energy: Keeping the Momentum Going, Lance cited the nation’s oil and natural gas industry for supporting 9.8 million domestic jobs, and the recent energy renaissance for providing 40% of the growth in the nation’s gross domestic product over the past two years. He explained that lifting the export ban would enable surplus U.S. light oil that exceeds U.S. refiners’ processing capacity to sell on the world market. This would create additional demand for light oil from the nation’s growing shale producing fields, helping sustain the energy-driven economic stimulation and job creation that has contributed to the rebounding U.S. economy.

Oil exports could sustain benefits of U.S. energy renaissance, ConocoPhillips CEO says

Glencore Plc, the world’s biggest listed commodities trader, said 2015 could be a boom year for oil amid the biggest price swings in six years. “It is looking very well structured for oil trading,” CEO Ivan Glasenberg said in a conference call with analysts Tuesday. “If it continues like this, oil could have a blow-out year.”

Glencore sees ‘blowout’ year for oil traders as volatility surges

OAO Lukoil said profit fell 39% last year as crude prices slumped and Russia’s second-largest oil producer reported asset impairments from Kazakhstan to West Africa. Net income dropped to $4.75 billion from $7.83 billion in 2013, the Moscow-based company said in an emailed statement on Tuesday. Impairments of $2.34 billion were partly countered by a $1.89 billion hedging gain from oil trading.

Lukoil profit drops 39% after impairments, oil-price slump

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. has cut its planned capital expenditure for 2015 to $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion, about 33% less than last year, the company announced Tuesday. “In the current market, we believe it is prudent to reduce capital investments and position the company for the future, rather than to pursue year-over-year growth,” Al Walker, Anadarko’s chairman, president and CEO, said.

Anadarko cuts 2015 budget by a third, reduces rigs




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-05-2015

Exxon Mobil Corp. shook off the chill of sanctions and continued to snap up drilling rights in Russia last year, giving it more exploration holdings in Vladimir Putin’s backyard than in the U.S. Taking the long view, Exxon boosted its Russian holdings to 63.7 million acres in 2014 from 11.4 million at the end of 2014, according to data from U.S. regulatory filings. That dwarfs the 14.6 million acres of rights Exxon holds in the U.S., which until last year was its largest exploration prospect.

Exxon’s Russia Exposure Surges as Long View Outweighs Sanctions - Bloomberg Business

Dutch church bells that for centuries have tolled to warn of floods across the low-lying countryside are sounding the alarm for a new threat: earthquakes linked to Europe's largest natural gas field.

The world's 10th largest gas field has a problem - Business Insider

Phase two of the three-part bust cycle in shale oil has just begun, as I outline in my upcoming online e-book Shale Boom, Shale Bust, due out in a few weeks. Two of the most leveraged companies in the energy space -- Hercules Offshore  (HERO - Get Report) and SandRidge Energy  (SD - Get Report) -- have recently been downgraded by separate analysts to zero, a potential death sentence. Believe me, in this second phase of restructurings and outright failures, this is only the beginning.

Shale Oil Bust Enters Phase Two, Led by Hercules and SandRidge - TheStreet

The U.S. Energy Information Administration early Wednesday reported that crude inventories rose by 10.3 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 27. Analysts polled by Platts had forecast a crude-stock climb of 3.7 million barrels, while sources said the API reported a 2.9 million-barrel rise.

Oil below $50 as crude supply jumps over 10 mln barrels - MarketWatch




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-06-2015

Exxon Mobil Corp. is sticking to production targets established when oil traded for more than $100/bbl, signaling confidence that demand for crude-based fuels will continue to expand. Exxon’s oil and natural gas output will grow by 2% this year and 3% annually in 2016 and 2017, the world’s largest energy producer by market value, said in a presentation to investors and analysts Wednesday. The outlook assumes an average crude price of $55/bbl.

Exxon says output growth on track even as crude price drops

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, pledged to supply as much oil as its customers need as recovering demand helps rebalance the global market. The strategy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to defend its market share against higher-cost producers, such as shale drillers, will prove to be effective, Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said in Berlin on Wednesday. The kingdom will only cut output if customers refuse to buy its crude, which is unlikely because Saudi supply is the world’s most reliable, he said.

Saudi Arabia to keep pumping as much oil as customers want

Oil held above $50/bbl as investors weighed Saudi Arabia’s signal that demand is improving against data forecast to show U.S. inventories expanded from a record. Futures were little changed in New York after rising 1.9% on Tuesday following an air attack on a Libyan oil port while Israel and the U.S. disagreed over nuclear talks with Iran. Saudi Arabia increased the pricing terms for its Arab Light grade to Asia by the most in three years after the kingdom’s oil minister said last month that demand is growing.

Oil holds above $50 as Saudis signal demand before supplies data

On 13th January both WTI and Brent reached lows and the WTI-Brent spread closed completely and was temporarily reversed. Since then Brent has staged a much stronger recovery than WTI, the former rising $14.7 (32.6%) to 23rd Feb, the latter rising a meager $3.64 (7.9%). While speculation is likely playing a role in the short term moves, the underlying situation of a glut of LTO in the USA persists as is borne out by the production figures detailed below.

Global crude oil production growth is grinding to a halt - Business Insider




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-07-2015

If oil rigs lead to new wells, fewer rigs should lead to less oil, right? Not necessarily. Bloomberg's Tom Randall explains. (Video by: Sadie Bass, Steven Jackson.) (Source: Bloomberg)

Why Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop the Drilling - Bloomberg Business

As the U.S. runs out of space to store its glut of crude-oil supplies, prices for the commodity could sink to as low as $30 a barrel. When storage is full, there is pressure on those holding oil in storage to “dump that inventory,” said Charles Perry, chief executive officer of energy-consulting firm Perry Management. So a space shortage could cause a drop in prices to the $30 to $40-per-barrel range, he said.

Storage dearth may drive oil prices to $30 - MarketWatch

Oil fell in New York after U.S. crude supplies increased to the highest level in more than three decades, adding to a global glut.

Oil Falls as Surging U.S. Crude Supply Seen Boosting Global Glut - Bloomberg Business

Evans made a decision in 2012 that will shape the direction of Magnum Hunter Resources. Throughout a two-year period, MHR liquidated over $700 million of their oil wells while prices were at their peak, raising abundant capital that would promptly be turned around and invested in natural gas wells, specifically in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. “We made a decision to focus totally on natural gas, so we’re 90-percent natural gas today.

Could Natural Gas Be A Better Bet Than Oil?




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-08-2015

In a world of $55/bbl oil, Exxon Mobil Corp. is relying on shale fields in Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota to help fund the next wave of big overseas projects it needs to thrive in the future. Exxon unveiled plans Wednesday to double the amount of oil it pumps from U.S. shale fields during the next three years, even as it moves more cautiously on investments in big projects elsewhere. Decades after quitting many U.S. fields to pursue bigger reserves from the Middle East to the North Sea, Exxon now sees its U.S. assets as its most reliable cash engines.

Exxon looks to U.S. shale fields to drive global growth

Global trade in LNG will exceed $120 billion this year, taking it past iron ore as the most valuable commodity after oil, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Competition will increase because the spot market is expanding and buyers are less reliant on long-term contracts, analysts including Jeff Currie in New York wrote in an emailed report on Thursday. The U.S. will supply more LNG in the next several years, giving Asia, the biggest consuming region, more bargaining power, the analysts said. About 73% of global LNG is sold under long-term contracts generally linked to oil with a time lag of as long as nine months

Goldman sees LNG as biggest commodity after crude this year

The recovery of the global oil market from sharply lower oil prices will be gradual, and it will be driven mostly by a supply response, said ConocoPhillips Chief Economist Marianne Kah. Her comments came during a presentation to The 5th Norwegian Finance Day, held Wednesday by the Norwegian Consulate General at the Federal Reserve Bank in Houston.

ConocoPhillps’ chief economist sees gradual market recovery

Recent well performance in the Eagle Ford Shale play has declined among key operators. This is due in part to especially poor well performance by a few operators. Excluding those operators, well performance for 2013 and 2014 was still poorer than in 2012 but improved in 2014 compared with 2013.

Inefficiencies Abound In U.S. Shale




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-08-2015

Global trade in liquefied natural gas will exceed $120 billion this year, taking it past iron ore as the most valuable commodity after oil, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

Goldman Sees LNG as Biggest Commodity After Crude This Year - Bloomberg Business

Oil was to have been Brazil's "passport to the future," but the grand dreams tied to state company Petrobras have been brought to a screeching halt not only by falling crude prices, but by a crisis of its own making.

Brazil's oil dreams are falling apart - Business Insider

The idea that Russia could achieve a strategic advantage over its neighbors through its energy resources is well known. After the start of the conflict in Ukraine last year, Western media and energy experts suggested that Russia could use its energy power as part of its “hybrid war.” It is therefore worth looking closely at what is real and what is false in the Kremlin’s capabilities in the oil and gas sector.

The Myth of Russia’s Energy Strength

It needs to be noted that Baker Hughes does not count rigs that are not actively drilling. Rigs that are “Moving In, Rigging Up” are not counted in the Baker Hughes count though they are counted by some others including the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

Where Have All The Rigs Gone?

The main oil production changes from December to January are: World total liquids down 40,000 bpd OPEC down 240,000 bpd N America down 10,000 bpd Russia and FSU down 70,000 bpd UK and Norway down 40,000 bpd (compared with January 2014) Asia up 60,000 bpd 1. Global oil production has now been flat, just over 94 Mbpd since September 2014 (5 months).

Global Crude Oil Production Growth Grinding To A Halt




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - Tusker - 03-09-2015

94 Mbpd since September 2014. You don't say. Well than, let's do some numbers.

94M x 365 = 34.31B

Gosh... a report I read lately mentioned that only 18B of oil was discovered in 2014. And I do not recall if it was 10P,50P,90P.

So... let us figure it is 1P. Of course, 50P would be more likely.

That RRR sure does not look pretty. Nice having some Nat Gas & Condensates around.

Now you'all come on back now, ya hear.


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-09-2015

U.S. energy explorers shut rigs targeting oil for the 13th straight week, extending the biggest retrenchment in drilling on record and dragging the total count to the lowest level since 2011. Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. dropped by 64 to 922, the lowest since April 2011, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. The count is down 43% from the 2014 peak of 1,609. More rigs were idled in the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico, the nation’s biggest oil field and one of its oldest, than any other play.

Rigs seeking U.S. oil slide to 3-year low in record retreat

Oil drillers expecting prices to rebound after the biggest drop in six years have come up with an alternative to storing their crude in tanks: They’re keeping it in the ground. It’s a new twist on an old oil-trading technique, known as a contango storage play, in which a trader buys cheap crude in an oversupplied market and saves it to lock in profits at higher future prices. Drillers who have spent millions drilling holes through petroleum-rich shale rock are just waiting for prices to go up before turning on the spigot.

Shale drillers storing oil underground, waiting for price recovery

The recovery of the global oil market from sharply lower oil prices will be gradual, and it will be driven mostly by a supply response, said ConocoPhillips Chief Economist Marianne Kah. Her comments came during a presentation to The 5th Norwegian Finance Day, held Wednesday by the Norwegian Consulate General at the Federal Reserve Bank in Houston. There were a number of drivers that brought about the free-fall of crude prices, said Kah. These include slowing economic growth, particularly in China; a warm start to the North American winter; rising U.S. tight oil production, a temporary return of Libyan oil production; and last, but certainly not least, OPEC’s decision at its November 2014 meeting to not function as a swing producer.

ConocoPhillps’ chief economist sees gradual market recovery




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 03-10-2015

Lower oil prices have forced energy companies to shut down many of its least profitable rigs. However, actual oil production has yet to fall as the active rigs are substantially more efficient and cost-effective. As such, Goldman Sachs analysts are convinced prices will go a lot lower, and will need to stay low  in order to get to the point where rig shutdowns lead to a significant pull back in production.

Goldman The oil market lower prices - Business Insider

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it didn't expect oil demand to recover so quickly and its forecast for crude at $40/bbl may be too low. While the bank projects that crude will reverse its recent advance, the failure of global inventories to increase amid weather-related disruptions and stronger-than-expected demand means there’s a risk prices will miss its target for the next two quarters, according to report dated March 8. Morgan Stanley also said the strength of the global physical market was a surprise.

Goldman says $40 oil call may be too low as demand surprises

The global crude-oil market will return to balance in the second half of this year as demand growth picks up and high-cost producers trim output amid lower prices, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said. Consumption in 2015 will increase by 1.2 MMbopd after rising more slowly than expected last year by less than 1 MMbopd, El-Badri said Sunday at a conference in Manama, Bahrain.

Oil glut seen easing in second half of year by head of OPEC

That presumably means less than a 12% reduction in production from new wells, for two reasons. First, it is the least promising new prospects that will be cut first. Second, there has been a learning curve improving productivity of new wells.

U.S. oil production still surging | Econbrowser