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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-04-2015

'Putncalls' pid='57607' datel Wrote:With respect the the Telegraph. The reason NG is 2.50 in the US is because it's a byproduct of oil production. The oil in the shale is very light and mixed with NG. It's so light you can almost put it in a diesel motor or burn it as kerosine. Over production of a money losing commodity is not the way capitalism works.

The really awesome efficiency increases captured in that Telegraph quote is (usually) the way capitalism works (on steroids here, it seems)..




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-04-2015

One of the most prominent themes this quarter will be record reductions in well costs achieved since the beginning of this year that management teams will showcase as the sector's key response to the change in the macro environment. I expect that the average cost reduction already achieved and reflected in the leading-edge AFEs, for resource plays, will be in the 20%-25% range from the respective costs in 2014. Moreover, I expect operators to guide for additional well cost reductions of 5%-10% for the remainder of the year.

U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements | Seeking Alpha

Oil explorers idled rigs in U.S. fields for the 21st straight week, extending an unprecedented retreat in drilling that has curbed domestic output and helped crude prices rally. Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. declined by 24 to 679, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday, the lowest level since September 2010. Those seeking gas fell by three to 222, the Houston-based field services company said. The total U.S. count, which includes four miscellaneous rigs, slipped by 27 to 905.

U.S. oil rigs fall for 21st week as supply shows signs of easing

Oil producers are taking advantage of the biggest monthly price increase since 2009 to sell more of their future output, threatening to slow the rally. New York-traded crude for next-month delivery gained 25% in April on signs a record drop in drilling rigs is starting to reduce production, easing the biggest U.S. oil glut in 85 years. December 2016 contracts were up just 8.7% in that period.

Oil producers’ sale of future output puts lid on price gains

The huge gas resource base in North America offers significant potential for LNG exports, but currently it is the U.S., not Canada, that is building an LNG export industry, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis. However, with potentially lower LNG related costs in Canada due to the oil price collapse, Canada may have the opportunity to potentially be cost competitive with U.S. LNG.

Lower Canadian costs offer competitiveness with U.S. LNG, Wood Mac says




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - my2cows - 05-05-2015

I like this one, and a point I have made to many myself, and why I don't invest in US oil production. Basically, he's arguing that it was the fed's easy money and wall street chasing returns with easy money that boosted production, not profitability... Even when oil was 100 dollars per share, the largest shale oil producers were not profitable

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000376584




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-05-2015

'my2cows' pid='57642' datel Wrote:

I like this one, and a point I have made to many myself, and why I don't invest in US oil production. Basically, he's arguing that it was the fed's easy money and wall street chasing returns with easy money that boosted production, not profitability... Even when oil was 100 dollars per share, the largest shale oil producers were not profitable

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000376584

For every view you have an opposing one. Others say that interest rates would be low without central banks (due to the world savings versus investment balance) and the efficiency increases (as measured as output per rig) is enormous and ongoing..




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - my2cows - 05-05-2015

'admin' pid='57643' datel Wrote:

efficiency increases (as measured as output per rig) is enormous and ongoing.

For sure, on the efficiencies.... but it hasn't helped enough to make any of these shale drillers profitable, and without the massive debt banks were willing to lend to the frackers... US output would be several million barrels per day less. Maybe Einhorns scathing rebuke of these unprofitable businesses will slow investment in such companies until they're actually profitable.




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-05-2015

The meteoric rise in U.S. oil production has ended, easing a global glut and driving a rebound in crude prices from below $50/bbl, according to crude trader and hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall. Oil production from Texas to North Dakota peaked at almost 10 MMbpd in February and has been falling since then, Hall said in a letter Friday to investors in Astenbeck Capital Management LLC, his commodities hedge fund. A drastic reduction in drilling rigs is starting to shrink U.S. oil output, according to U.S. government data cited by Hall.

Renowned oil trader sees rally as U.S. production falling

Well cost reductions by E&P operators are running well ahead of guidance. Feedback from oil service providers indicates a radical change in the industry’s cost structure for the next two years. With activity re-focused on best locations, the industry is likely to see solid well-level returns at WTI prices in the $60-$70 per barrel range.

U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements | Seeking Alpha

Stunningly, we're in a situation where in the year 2014, Americans consumed less petroleum than they did in the year 1997, despite the fact that the economy was 46% larger than it was in 1997

WH economist: Oil price benefits near for U.S. economy

Oil production from Texas to North Dakota peaked at almost 10 million barrels a day in February and has been falling since then, Hall wrote. A drastic reduction in drilling rigs is starting to shrink U.S. oil output, according to government data cited by Hall. That’s helped drive a 36 percent rally in the past six weeks, and prices will continue to rise because it will be harder for producers to ramp up than it was to cut back, Hall said in his letter. Lower crude prices have also boosted demand, while the risk of supply disruptions across the Middle East is growing amid sectarian tensions.

The Shale Boom Has Already Gone Bust - At Least for Now - Yahoo Finance




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-06-2015

Net oil-importing regions such as the US, Europe, and Asia are set to be the recipients of a sizeable $900 billion stimulus, while oil-exporting nations are set to fund it. This wealth transfer is most starkly exhibited by the loss of $357 billion by the Middle East this year…and a $393 billion gain by Asia

Four Key Catalysts To Watch In The Oil Sector

Oil rose above $60/bbl in New York for the first time since December, extending the biggest monthly advance since May 2009 on signs the U.S. supply glut is easing. Futures rose as much as 3.1% in New York after gaining 25% in April. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, last week shrank for the first time since November, according to government data.

U.S. oil rises above $60 for first time this year as glut fades

Oil supply and demand don’t fully justify the 60% drop in prices between June and January as speculation also played a role, according to OPEC. A rise in supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at a time when demand for oil was weak was the main reason for the drop, OPEC said in its monthly bulletin on Monday. Brent oil, benchmark for more than half of the world’s crude, tumbled from mid-June to a six-year low in January as U.S. output climbed to the highest level in more than four decades and OPEC members pumped more barrels.

OPEC says speculation played important role in oil’s decline

Here we get an amplified view of the World less USA & Russia. The peak was in February 2006 and February 2015 is over 2,600,000 barrels per day below that point. We have discussed, in several posts, why many of us believe that the USA has peaked, or will peak this year; but what about Russia? Is Russia at her peak also?

The Return Of Peak Oil – Worrying Signs From U.S. And Russia - Yahoo Finance




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-07-2015

China confirmed the reshuffle of the leadership of its biggest oil companies, helping clear a path in a crucial area of the economy for President Xi Jinping as he plans his overhaul of the nation’s bloated state sector. Changes to the top executives at China National Petroleum Corp., Sinopec Group and China National Offshore Oil Corp. could accelerate market-driven reform of the oil and gas industry. The new chairmen will also be challenged to steer the oil giants through Xi’s corruption crackdown, which has wracked the industry, and a tumble in global crude prices.

Leadership reshuffle at China big oil clears path for reform

OPEC oil production was little changed in April near the highest level since November 2012 as Saudi Arabia pumped 10 MMbpd.

OPEC oil output near 2 1/2-year high as Saudis show no letup

“Deepwater exploration has an important role to play as we go forward,” Fryklund suggested. “Even though we’ve had shale fever for the last few years.” Fryklund expects the Gulf of Mexico “continuing to be the pipeline through new plays. The Miocene play has flattened a bit, but there are opportunities for discoveries in the Lower Tertiary and the Jurassic.” He also mentioned Brazil’s pre-salt and East Africa as some of the regions that could be expected to contribute new production in the coming decades.

OTC ’15: Deepwater offers opportunities to fill supply gap of 20 MMbopd by 2040

The United States is edging towards an historic agreement to swap crude oil with Mexico. The deal is important as it brings some relief to US producers struggling with a light oil glut at home and for Mexican national oil company, Pemex, which is hoping to mix the lighter crude coming out of US shale fields with its heavier blend. However, the arrangement is not just about the relationship between the US and Mexico. It’s also about broader North American energy integration. And critically, many experts see the deal as another crack in the US crude oil export ban.

This Deal Could Completely Change North American Energy Dynamics




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-08-2015

The single most important development in the last years in the Canadian upstream industry is the rise of oil sand production. With an increasing price level and more advanced technology, it became profitable to mine bitumen and upgrade them to synthesized crude oil on a big scale. In some of my articles I have already calculated production costs of the biggest oil sand producers in Canada (part I, part II).

How Much Does It Cost To Produce 1 Barrel Of Oil? (23 Canadian Companies In 2014) | Seeking Alpha

Russian oil and gas condensate production, among the world's largest, remained at a post-Soviet record level of 10.71 million barrels per day in April, underpinned by a recent recovery in oil prices, Energy Ministry data showed on Saturday.

Russian oil production remains at post-Soviet high in April | Reuters

Clashes are growing between cities and states across America over oil and gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the practice of high pressure injections of water, sand and chemicals underground to free deposits of oil and gas. Energy-rich states are rushing to quash some of the local activism. Following is a summary of state debates.

Details of the debate in US states on oil drilling, fracking

With Siberia’s aging oil fields slowly running dry, Russia is turning to a natural gas by-product to help maintain crude production and meet President Vladimir Putin’s target of 10 MMbopd. As companies including OAO Gazprom, OAO Novatek and OAO Rosneft get new Siberian gas fields up and running, they’re also boosting output of condensate, a prized, ultra-light form of crude that’s a common component of underground gas reserves.

Russia keys on condensates after sanctions hit Arctic oil




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-09-2015

In its mid-year update to the 2015 Canadian Drilling Activity Forecast, released Thursday, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) is forecasting a total of only 5,320 wells to be drilled across Canada in 2015. This decrease of 4,780 wells from PSAC’s original drilling forecast, released in October 2014, represents a 47% drop.

PSAC cuts 2015 Canadian drilling forecast in half

EOG Resources, the biggest shale-oil producer, will resume major growth in output once crude prices are stable at $65/bbl. The company will likely start to ramp up activities again in the fourth quarter, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer William Thomas said on conference call Tuesday. The company yesterday reported a $169.7 million net loss for the first quarter, it’s first negative results in more than two years.

EOG will resume major oil growth at ‘stable’ $65 oil price

The U.S. will become one of the world’s largest oil exporters if domestic production continues to surge and policy makers lift a four-decade ban that keeps most crude from leaving the country, a government-sponsored study shows.

U.S. seen joining biggest oil exporters if ban is lifted

As oil prices climbed above $68 on Tuesday for the first time since December, analysts at some of the world’s biggest banks were holding onto views that this would be a bad year for crude—just not as terrible as they originally predicted. Rather then extending last year’s losses, Brent, the global benchmark, has rallied about 50% from a six-year low in January as demand accelerated and the rapid growth in supplies started to slow.

Oil analysts practice cautious capitulation as crude surprises