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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-19-2015

Not everyone's convinced, however, that oil is really on the verge of a new boom. Energy analyst Chris Nelder, for one, has spent a lot of time scrutinizing the claims of the oil triumphalists. Our newfound oil resources, he argues, aren't nearly as promising as they first appear. And peak oil is still as relevant as ever.

Peak oil isn’t dead: An interview with Chris Nelder - The Washington Post

Eagle Ford Shale wells are producing roughly 500 barrels per day of oil on average by some estimates. Given the widely cited 70% decline rate over the first year of production in a new well, and an $8 million well cost, that makes the extraction cost roughly $40-50 per barrel of oil produced. If refracking a well allows a recovery of even half the amount of oil as the original well, then the price per barrel extracted falls to $20 per barrel.

Could This New Business Model Save Fracking? | OilPrice.com

Although some US oil companies are struggling with low oil prices, a new wave of innovation is hitting the oil patch, allowing for a significant reduction in drilling costs.

This Innovation Will Help U.S. Companies Win The Oil Price War - Yahoo Finance

BHP Billiton Ltd. is lowering the priority of its Scarborough LNG project with Exxon Mobil Corp. in Australia amid a fall in prices and increasing competition from the U.S. “LNG prices are down quite a bit from last year,” Tim Cutt, BHP’s petroleum president, told reporters Monday in Melbourne. The project “falls a bit lower” on the list of opportunities, he said.

BHP lowers priority of Australian LNG project with Exxon




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - johnwgrant - 05-19-2015

Note: the Peak oil isn't dead interview with Chris Nelder is a 2 year old article.

I found this paragraph reflects the consensus view UNTIL oil was crushed down to $43/barrel this year... We shall see who's right - Goldman or Nelder - going forward....

CN: A number of analysts have argued that the floor on oil prices is now around $85 per barrel. It might vary from place to place. An existing well in the Bakken might be profitable when oil's at $70 or $75. For Arctic drilling, prices might have to rise to $110 per barrel. But the floor is around $85.


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-19-2015

["Note: the Peak oil isn't dead interview with Chris Nelder is a 2 year old article."]

Sorry, didn't notice that as it was linked from a recent article but this seemed considerably more comprehensive.


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-20-2015

Over the last few years, analysts and academics worried about peak oil have been on the defensive. The fracking revolution has brought an abundance of oil and gas that no one thought possible a decade ago. So we can declare peak oil dead, right? Chris Nelder, an energy analyst who’s written extensively on the subject, has a simple answer: no.

Peak Oil in an Era of Fossil Fuel Abundance : Greentech Media

Finding new sources of oil has always been the primary strategy of the oil industry. But digging more efficiently is perhaps of greater importance when finances are stretched and untested areas more risky. Instead, producers are faced with three options: 1. increase production from existing assets; 2. monetize known resources; 3. reduce exploration and production costs.

3 Ways Oil Companies Can Survive Low Prices | OilPrice.com

ConocoPhillips said it’s capable of supplying U.S. oil to the global market and reiterated a call to end the nation’s ban on crude exports. The U.S. shale boom has resulted in a glut of light-sweet crude, as production outpaces demand from refineries, Ryan Lance, CEO of the Houston-based company, said in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. Removing the ban on overseas sales of U.S. oil would benefit consumers because it would reduce domestic as well as overseas gasoline prices, he said at a conference in the Malaysian capital.

Conoco sees selling U.S. oil to world amid call to end crude ban

A plunge in oil has forced companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to Chevron Corp. to cut or delay spending on projects that supply super-cooled gas linked to the price of crude.

BHP lowers priority of Australian LNG project with Exxon




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-21-2015

Saudi Arabia shipped more crude in March than in any month since November 2005 as the world’s biggest oil exporter battled for market share amid a global glut. The kingdom exported 7.9 MMbpd of crude, up 548,000 bpd from February, according to figures published Monday on the website of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative.

Saudi March oil exports reach 9-year high in market push

Gazprom has revived a deal with Saipem to build a gas link through the Black Sea, which was suspended after Russian President Vladimir Putin scrapped the South Stream pipeline to Europe last year. Italy’s biggest oil and gas contractor will start laying the new route to Turkey next month as the Moscow-based exporter shifts contracts, including pipe supplies, to the new project, Gazprom management board member Oleg Aksyutin told reporters.

Gazprom revives Saipem deal to build Turkey gas link through Black Sea

California (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost about 1% of the oil production flowing from its shale formations this month, and the decline is just starting. Output from the prolific tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’s Eagle Ford shale will slide 54,227 bpd this month, based on Energy Information Administration estimates. It’ll fall another 86,000 bbl in June to a five-month low of 5.56 million, the agency said Monday.

Shale oil production cuts to get bigger next month, EIA says

North Dakota publishes Historical Oil Production by County. However confidential wells are not included in these totals. But they also publish a State Summary Report which does include confidential well data for the previous two months. Working with both we can get a pretty good estimate of production from each county.

One Of Shale’s Major Plays Is Flattening Out - Yahoo Finance




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - jft310 - 05-22-2015

Saudi Arabia expanded its share of China’s oil market last month, outpacing rival producers as they compete to meet record demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer.
China’s imports from the Middle East producer jumped 37 percent from a year earlier to the highest level since July 2013, according to customs data. The world’s biggest crude exporter was the No. 1 supplier to the Asian nation, accounting for 17.4 percent of its overseas purchases, up from 15.1 percent in March. The next three largest sellers -- Russia, Iran and Angola -- lost market share.
Record imports by China are contributing to a recovery in benchmark oil from a six-year low amid speculation the purchases will help shrink the global supply glut that drove crude’s collapse in 2014. Saudi Arabia has led OPEC’s policy of maintaining production to defend its market share and force U.S. shale drillers to curb the highest American output in more than three decades.
“Saudi Arabia is China’s top choice,” Li Li, a research and strategy director at ICIS China, a Shanghai-based energy consultant, said by phone from Guangzhou. “Refineries in China like the Saudi medium-to-heavy grade as most of them are familiar with that crude.”
The world’s second-biggest oil consumer bought 5.26 million metric tons of crude from Saudi Arabia in April, versus 3.84 million a year earlier, according to data e-mailed by the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs on Friday.
Record Imports
China’s overseas purchases totaled 30.29 million tons, or an unprecedented 7.4 million barrels a day, last month, government data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped more than 10 million barrels a day of oil for a second month in April, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. That demonstrates the kingdom “is intent on maintaining its policy to preserve its market share,” the IEA said in a report May 13.
The Middle East producer shipped more crude in March than in any month since November 2005 while pumping at a rate of 10.29 million barrels a day, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative show.
China, which is forecast to account for 11 percent of global oil use this year, stepped up purchases to fill its emergency supplies as oil prices plunged last year and is expected to make available more capacity to store emergency stockpiles later in 2015.
Market Competition
“In a buyer’s market, everybody wants to lock supplies with China,” Gao Jian, an analyst with Shandong-based energy consultant SCI International, said by phone. “Oil producers have to compete head to head.”
While Russia’s sales to China rose 26 percent from a year earlier to 3.15 million tons in April, it’s market share declined to 10.4 percent from 11 in the previous month, the customs data show.
Iran’s exports to the nation slid 11.6 percent to 2.91 million tons, accounting for 9.6 percent of total overseas purchases versus 10.1 percent in March. Imports from Angola fell 30 percent to 2.86 million tons, the lowest since July 2014, while the African producer’s market share decreased to 9.4 percent from March’s 13 percent.


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-22-2015

While some smaller shale companies and service firms have heralded the re-frack as a way to reduce costs, the process has, at best, produced mixed results. According to one report, 86 percent of refracks in the Bakken shale resulted in net positive value compared to just 52 percent of refracks in the Eagle Ford.

3 Ways Oil Companies Can Survive Low Prices | OilPrice.com

The rally in crude prices may not last as U.S. shale output remains robust, according to Malaysia’s state oil company. “It will take many years until we see oil prices anywhere near the $100 mark,” Petroliam Nasional Bhd. President and CEO Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. “We’ve underestimated the resilience of U.S. shale production. We’re still grappling our way to climb out of this big drop.”

$100 oil seen years away by Petronas as shale output resilient

Anadarko Petroleum, on behalf of the co-venturers in Mozambique's Offshore Area 1, has announced the selection of a consortium consisting of CB&I, Chiyoda Corporation and Saipem (CCS JV) for the initial development of the onshore LNG park in Mozambique.

Anadarko appoints contractor for Mozambique LNG development

What’s next for oil prices? After rallying by about 40% since their lows earlier this year, forecasts now by major banks paint a mixed picture but one that increasingly looks like a W-shaped recovery. The average forecast in a MoneyBeat survey of 10 banks is for Brent, the global benchmark, to fall to an average of $63.35 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, down from around $66 on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. marker, will average $58.40 a barrel next quarter, down from about $59 a barrel on Tuesday, according to the survey.

Oil Prices: Where Next? Here Are the Forecasts - MoneyBeat - WSJ




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-23-2015

Oil climbed after U.S. crude stockpiles dropped, as refineries bolstered operating rates. Crude inventories declined 2.67 MMbbl last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Refinery operating rates rose for the third time in four weeks. Gasoline supplies unexpectedly fell ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, which heralds the start of the U.S. summer driving season.

Oil rises after U.S. crude supply drops amid refining boost

U.S. crude inventories shrank for a second week to 484.8 MMbbl in the period to May 8, a level that’s more than 100 MMbbl above the five-year seasonal average, according to government data. While the world’s largest consumer is pumping oil at a reduced pace as drillers cut the number of active rigs, output remains near a record.

$100 oil seen years away by Petronas as shale output resilient

South Sudanese rebels said they have taken control of the country’s main oil fields that are still producing crude, after defeating government forces in Upper Nile state on Tuesday. The insurgents loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar, allied with local militia, are occupying the area around Paloch, rebel spokesman Lony T. Ngundeng said on Tuesday. “Our forces have controlled all the oil fields,” he said by phone from the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. “There’s not any damage to the installations.”

South Sudanese rebels say they seized oil-producing fields

OPEC earned close to $730 billion in net oil export revenues in 2014, which was a decline of 11% from 2013. Low oil prices and reduction in the net oil exports were the major factors behind this decline. This was the cartel’s lowest revenue earning since 2010.

How Much Does OPEC Really Earn? | OilPrice.com




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-24-2015

Spot and short-term LNG trades are defined by the International Group of LNG Importers in Paris as deals lasting four years or less. They accounted for 16%  of all transactions in 2006, and that share may expand to 45% by 2020

Shale set to pummel another market, as U.S. LNG plants arrive

Total has started-up gas and condensate production from the onshore Termokarstovoye field, in the Yamalo Nenets Autonomous District of the Russian Federation. The field will produce around 6.6 MMcmgd and 20,000 bcpd, with a combined production capacity of 65,000 boed.

Total brings Russian gas field onstream in northern Siberia

Oil slid to a three-week low as the dollar strengthened and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said a continuing surplus would send prices back down to $45 bbl by October. New York futures fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak since March as a stronger dollar reduced oil’s investment appeal. Crude is poised to revisit earlier lows as producers’ easy access to cash will prolong a surplus and weigh on prices later this year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Oil falls to 3-week low as Goldman sees $45 crude by October

British Columbia and a group of companies led by Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. reached a preliminary deal on taxes and royalties for a proposed C$36 billion ($30 billion) liquefied natural gas project. The government and Petronas-led Pacific NorthWest LNG said the memorandum of understanding sets a path toward forging a final investment decision on the project.

Petronas-led group signs pact on $30 billion Canada LNG project




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-25-2015

A lot of people have got very excited as the price of WTI has bounced back from the lows reached a few months ago. If oil fails to break and hold above $62 this time around, however, their enthusiasm could well be misplaced, as the fundamental factors that caused the price decline in the first instance are still in place. That, combined with the technical importance of this challenge of the resistance, makes a drop back below $50 look more likely than a continued rally. When short-term technical indicators and long-term fundamentals both suggest a move in the same direction, as is the case here, investors are well advised to pay attention.

Why Oil’s Rally Is Over | OilPrice.com

Some market watchers, such as Cornerstone Analytics (CA), have consistently stated that the underestimation of demand, coupled with over-estimation of supply, will mask the growing call on OPEC oil in the second half of this year. CA recently noted that global demand outstripped supply by some 4 million barrels in April . This comes in addition to the mounting evidence that the oil market, via rig count declines, slowing production growth, higher demand and huge API crude inventory declines, is starting to readjust.

OPEC Struggling To Keep Up The Pace In Oil Price War | OilPrice.com

The more than 40 year old crude oil export ban is no longer serving its original purpose. And, as the authors point out, it is currently causing nearly the opposite effect as was originally intended. Continuing it at this point is not only leading to a sequence of diminishing returns, but leaving important benefits – both foreign and domestic – on the table.

Crude oil may be our most strategic weapon « Hot Air

The transfer of operational control of Train 1 marks the start of commercial operations at QCLNG. First production from Train 1 occurred in December 2014, with 16 cargoes shipped to date. QCLNG’s Train 2 is currently under construction, and is expected to start operations in the third quarter of 2015.

BG takes full operational control of Queensland Curtis LNG in Australia