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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - ArtM72 - 05-26-2015

QCLNG - $US20.4B for two 3.3 MTPA units, pipelines wells etc.? The video at https://vimeo.com/71793499 states 440 MMscf/d for each unit. Pretty expensive, No?


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-26-2015

According to Cornerstone Analytics, demand is up some 1.7M/D in 1Q15 vs. initial estimates from others of less than 1M/D average rise for the year. So the price drop is clearly seeing a demand response. The recent monetary easing in rates and reserves by China will only help to increase demand further from here. Remember the cries that the oil “glut” was because of weak Asian demand (another in a long series of deceptions)? Cornerstone Analytics goes on to say this morning, that OPEC can’t meet its call and that will become self-evident as prices rise to $85 for Brent by years end.

Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face | OilPrice.com

Millions of barrels of untapped oil that U.S. shale drillers discovered during the boom years are about to disappear from their inventories. Six years ago, the industry pushed the Securities and Exchange Commission to make it easier for companies to claim proved reserves for wells that wouldn’t be drilled for years. Some prospects considered sure-things when crude was $95/bbl are money losers at today’s $60. When crude crashed in 2008, 44 U.S. companies wiped 630 MMbbl from their books.

Oil’s whodunit moment coming with millions of barrels to vanish

Saudi Arabia expanded its share of China’s oil market last month, outpacing rival producers as they compete to meet record demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer. China’s imports from the Middle East producer jumped 37% from a year earlier to the highest level since July 2013, according to customs data. The world’s biggest crude exporter was the No. 1 supplier to the Asian nation, accounting for 17.4% of its overseas purchases, up from 15.1% in March. The next three largest sellers—Russia, Iran and Angola—lost market share.

Saudi oil supply outpaces rivals in grab for record China demand

The rally in crude oil is reviving the U.S. shale boom, threatening speculators who are the most bullish on prices since July. Money managers increased their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 3.9% in the seven days ended May 5, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s a level last seen toward the start of last year’s price crash. Short positions declined to the lowest this year.

Crude-oil bulls threatened as shale patch revives drilling plans




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - MartiniStocks9756 - 05-27-2015

For my first post, I thought I would add some information that the drilling in the shale patch in Ohio is not stopping.   Drilling Down Uptick in Permit Activity for Southern Utica By Dan O'Brien | May 27, 2015 YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – The Ohio Department of Natural Resources issued 16 new permits for horizontal wells in the Utica shale last week, an improvement from permit counts in recent weeks, the regulatory agency reports. All of the permits were issued to companies exploring in the southern tier of eastern Ohio’s Utica shale play, ODNR says. American Energy LLC received 11 permits, five in Guernsey County and six in Harrison County. Triad Hunter LLC received three permits to drill in Monroe County. CNX Gas, a subsidiary of Consol Energy, received a single permit to drill in Monroe County. And XTO Energy, a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil, was awarded a single permit to drill in Belmont County. No new permits were issued for Mahoning, Trumbull or Columbiana counties. Through May 23, there are 1,494 wells drilled in the Utica and 897 of them have been placed into production, according to ODNR. The rig count, that is the number of drilling rigs operating in the Ohio portion of the Utica at any given time, last week stood at 26. There were no new permits issued in Lawrence or Mercer counties in western Pennsylvania, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-27-2015

Hello Martini, welcome aboard. Doesn't look like shale is capitulating, although the rig count has been greatly reduced (from something like 1500 to somewhere in the 600 or so). This is bound to have an effect on production sooner or later though:

It is true that these rig counts remain substantially below 2014 highs and the lag from spud date to first production is about 5 months in the Bakken and 3 months in the other plays. In other words, the effects of lower rig counts have not yet been reflected in current production data which lags about 3 months itself. Published EIA production for February and April is an estimate.

The oil market can't ignore fundamentals forever - Business Insider

So there are two lags operating, and in addition we have steep declining production rate of existing wells (up to 70% in the first year), so it's difficult to see how this isn't going to affect production in the future at least to some extent.




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-27-2015

Saudi Arabia has begun drawing down its foreign currency reserves for the first time since 2009 to cover a record state budget deficit caused by the plunge in oil prices, data from the Saudi central bank indicated on Thursday.

UPDATE 1-Saudi drawing down FX reserves to cover deficit, data suggests | Reuters

Six years ago, the industry pushed the Securities and Exchange Commission to make it easier for companies to claim proved reserves for wells that wouldn’t be drilled for years. Some prospects considered sure-things when crude was $95 a barrel are money losers at today’s $60. When crude crashed in 2008, 44 U.S. companies wiped 630 million barrels from their books.

Millions of Barrels of Oil Are About to Vanish - Bloomberg Business

While the 12 counties with Bakken production between North Dakota and Montana have lost themajority of their horizontal rigs over the last eight months, core areas of the shale play remain attractive, especially as oil prices creep towards $70/bbl, says an analyst with research and consulting firm GlobalData. According to Jonathan Lacouture, GlobalData’s upstream analyst for onshore Americas, IP30 rates, which measure a well’s average production over its first 30 days of active life, show that there are clear productivity differences between each county.

Core Bakken assets remain economical despite low oil prices, GlobalData says

With a global oversupply of crude and ever-changing price environment, the crude oil supply chain between the U.S. and Canada has reacted quickly to rebalance supply and demand by moving U.S. crude north to the Canadian East coast, adding new infrastructure to de-bottleneck oil sand storage hubs, and conducting maintenance at Canadian oil sands production facilities, according to Genscape analysis.

Canadian crude oil supply chain adapts to U.S. glut, Genscape says




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-28-2015

Forget politics and religion. One of the biggest debates on Wall Street these days is whether oil and energy stocks are toxic or terrific. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) put out a note last week telling clients now is the time to buy. Hedge funds have already pounced. The 50 largest hedge funds bought a lot of energy stocks (e.g. Williams Partners (WPZ), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Kinder Morgan (KMI)) in the first quarter, according to their latest stock disclosures.

Smart money is buying energy stocks. Should you? - May. 24, 2015

The U.S. is about to change the global LNG market forever. When the first tanker carrying LNG from shale fields leaves the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana in December, it will turn consumers into traders with more bargaining power. That will transform a market dominated by long-term contracts into one where spot trading gains prominence, similar to crude oil.

Shale set to pummel another market, as U.S. LNG plants arrive

The market drew support from figures showing strong demand across Asia and the United States. "Global oil demand continues to surprise to the upside, with April data showing no signs of slowdown despite a pick-up in prices," Energy Aspects said in a note. Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports rose 9.1 percent year-on-year to 3.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the Finance Ministry said. In China, crude imports hit a record 7.4 million bpd last month, with healthy car sales countering a slowing economy. In the United States, the peak summer driving season started with Memorial Day on Monday, and the American Automobile Association said road travel was expected to reach a 10-year high over the long weekend.

Oil prices gain as firm demand outweighs dollar strength | Reuters

“Having to do things like drill in the Arctic” and “deal with Mr. Putin” are some of the reasons hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said he’s “really negative” on integrated oil companies. “They’re replacing $20 oil with $80 oil, that’s the problem,” Chanos said in an interview

Oil Becoming ‘Mundane Return-on-Capital’ Business to Chanos - Bloomberg Business




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-29-2015

After 17 months of civil war spanning a swathe of South Sudan bigger than Syria, President Salva Kiir’s survival may hinge on the fate of a single oil field. Paloch in Upper Nile state, the only region still pumping crude in a nation with sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest reserves, has re-emerged as the rebels’ prime target.

South Sudan oil field becomes battleground in civil war as economy reels

Non-OPEC liquids growth potential of 5.5 MMbopd over the next five years has been reduced by over 2 MMbopd to 3.3 MMbopd, according to Rystad Energy’s most recent forecasts. Latest oil field research shows investments in oil and gas production are estimated to drop 20% in 2015 compared to 2014. Outside OPEC, $200 billion in yearly capex is considered to be axed over a two-year period. Ultimately, for every billion dollars being cut in development capex on marginal projects, the production shortfall would amount to 10 Mbopd.

Non-OPEC production growth reduced by over 2 MMbopd towards 2020: Rystad Energy

BG Group’s assets in Tanzania give Shell another chance at East Africa’s huge gas opportunity. However, in the race to become Africa’s newest LNG exporter, Mozambique appears to be leaping ahead of Tanzania, its northern neighbor. As in West Africa, independent exploration and production firms led entry into East Africa and racked up success unlocking not only new oil plays but also enormous gas plays, where none had been expected.

Which East African Nation Will Win The LNG Race? | OilPrice.com

Crude plunged for eight of nine weeks prior to the group’s November gathering, when the kingdom faced down opposition from the majority of fellow members, who advocated output reductions to tackle a global glut. With oil companies around the world cutting investment, U.S. output peaking and prices up, Saudi Arabia’s strategy will be extended at OPEC’s semiannual meeting on June 5, say Societe Generale SA and Bank of America Corp.

OPEC seen backing Saudi Arabia’s plan to keep supplies elevated




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-30-2015

Oil speculators missed out as record demand from U.S. refineries helped trim supplies from their highest level in more than eight decades and drive prices higher. Hedge funds and other money managers reduced their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 7.1% in the seven days ended May 19, the most in two months, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short positions anticipating lower prices expanded by 30%.

Oil bears miss out as record U.S. refinery demand drives rally

Alberta forest fires have prompted the shutdown of about 9% of Canada’s oil sands production. Cenovus Energy Inc. closed its 130,000 bpd Foster Creek operations and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. shut its 80,000 bpd Primrose project after a forest fire broke out on the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range in northeastern Alberta, the companies said.

Alberta forest fires shut 9% of Canada’s oil sands capacity

Storage withdrawals and falling rig count have been the main sources of hope that U.S. tight oil production will fall and that oil prices will rebound. That hope is fading as it is now clear that recent withdrawals from U.S. crude oil storage are because of price, not falling supply, and that the drop in rig count has stalled.

The oil market can't ignore fundamentals forever - Business Insider

The past year has been seen oil prices drop to below $50 per barrel. But now that prices seem to be stabilizing, a number of new trends and investment opportunities emerge.

Four Opportunities Presented By Stabilizing Oil Prices | OilPrice.com




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 05-31-2015

The rally in crude oil is reviving the U.S. shale boom, threatening speculators who are the most bullish on prices since July. Money managers increased their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 3.9% in the seven days ended May 5, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s a level last seen toward the start of last year’s price crash. Short positions declined to the lowest this year.

Crude-oil bulls threatened as shale patch revives drilling plans

According to Cornerstone Analytics, demand is up some 1.7M/D in 1Q15 vs. initial estimates from others of less than 1M/D average rise for the year. So the price drop is clearly seeing a demand response. The recent monetary easing in rates and reserves by China will only help to increase demand further from here. Remember the cries that the oil “glut” was because of weak Asian demand (another in a long series of deceptions)? Cornerstone Analytics goes on to say this morning, that OPEC can’t meet its call and that will become self-evident as prices rise to $85 for Brent by years end.

Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face | OilPrice.com

Saudi Arabia expanded its share of China’s oil market last month, outpacing rival producers as they compete to meet record demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer. China’s imports from the Middle East producer jumped 37% from a year earlier to the highest level since July 2013, according to customs data. The world’s biggest crude exporter was the No. 1 supplier to the Asian nation, accounting for 17.4% of its overseas purchases, up from 15.1% in March. The next three largest sellers—Russia, Iran and Angola—lost market share.

Saudi oil supply outpaces rivals in grab for record China demand

EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $61/b in 2015 and $70/b in 2016, $1/b higher and $5/b lower than in last month's STEO, respectively. Average WTI prices in 2015 and 2016 are expected to be $6/b and $5/b below Brent, respectively. The current values of futures and options contracts for December 2015 delivery suggest (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) the market's expectations (at the 95% confidence interval) for WTI prices in that month range from $41/b to $97/b.

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 06-01-2015

LNG is expected to surpass iron ore as the second most valuable physical commodity after oil this year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, who predict it will top $120bn. This has mobilised commodity traders who have been positioning themselves for increased trading activity and a move towards more LNG contracts being based on current price of gas, known as the spot price.

LNG trade prepares to come out of oil’s shadow - FT.com

The Energy Department has issued a conditional authorization for the Alaska LNG Project, LLC to export domestically produced LNG to countries that do not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S. Subject to environmental review and final regulatory approval, Alaska LNG, in the Nikiski Area of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, is authorized to export LNG up to the equivalent of 2.55 Bcfd of natural gas for a period of 30 years.

DOE authorizes Alaska LNG exports to non-FTA countries

Oil explorers idled rigs in U.S. fields for the 25th straight week, drawing out an unprecedented retreat in drilling that has curbed the country’s shale oil boom and helped crude prices rally. Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. declined by 13 to 646, the lowest since August 2010, field services company Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. Most of the losses were outside of major basins, with drilling subsiding in states including California and Louisiana.

Oil drilling retreat in U.S. drags on for 25th straight week

The U.S. is about to change the global LNG market forever. When the first tanker carrying LNG from shale fields leaves the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana in December, it will turn consumers into traders with more bargaining power. That will transform a market dominated by long-term contracts into one where spot trading gains prominence, similar to crude oil.

Shale set to pummel another market, as U.S. LNG plants arrive