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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - Palm - 12-17-2014

3 reasons to stop betting that oil will continue to plunge
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-to-stop-betting-that-oil-will-continue-to-plunge-2014-12-15?siteid=yhoof2


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-17-2014

'Palm' pid='53296' datel Wrote:3 reasons to stop betting that oil will continue to plunge http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-to-stop-betting-that-oil-will-continue-to-plunge-2014-12-15?siteid=yhoof2

Darn, did I miss one?




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-18-2014

The refusal of Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies to curb crude oil output in the face of plummeting prices has set the energy world on a painful course that will leave the weakest behind, from governments to U.S. wildcatters. A grand experiment has begun, one in which the cartel of producing nations -- sometimes called the central bank of oil -- is leaving the market to decide who is strongest and how to cut as much as 2 MMbopd of surplus supply.

OPEC refusal hits oil’s weak links from Iran to U.S. shale

Oil patch executives including billionaire Harold Hamm have vowed to drill on, asserting they can profit well below $70/bbl, with output unlikely to fall for at least a year. Marginal producers in less profitable U.S. shale areas, as well as countries from Iran to Russia and operations from Canada to Norway will see the knife sooner, according to analyses by Wells Fargo & Co., IHS Inc. and ITG Investment Research.

OPEC refusal hits oil’s weak links from Iran to U.S. shale

Significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of emerging economies and an additional 2 billion people in the world will contribute to a 35% increase in energy demand by 2040, according to a report by Exxon Mobil.

Exxon sees energy demand rising 35% by 2040

Proved reserves of crude and lease condensate in the U.S. rose 9.3% in 2013 as drillers showed they could extract more oil than previously thought from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. Reserves increased 3.1 Bbbl to 36.5 Bbbl, the Energy Information Administration said today in its annual U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves report. It was the fifth year in a row that proved reserves increased. They also exceeded 36 Bbbl for the first time since 1975.

U.S. oil reserves highest since at least 1975 on shale boom

Shale drillers are planning on production growth with fewer rigs despite a worldwide glut that has sent crude prices to a four-year low. Companies including Devon Energy Corp., Continental Resources Inc. and EOG Resources Inc. said they expect to pump more from their prime properties while cutting back in their least productive prospects. That puts the onus on OPEC nations, led by Saudi Arabia, to cut output if they want to stem the slide in global oil prices.

Shale output unchecked by rig cutback as top fields become focus




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - Li'loilady - 12-19-2014

'admin' pid='53377' dateline='<a href="tel:1418904 Wrote:

Significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of emerging economies and an additional 2 billion people in the world will contribute to a 35% increase in energy demand by 2040, according to a report by Exxon Mobil.

Exxon sees energy demand rising 35% by 2040

Natural gas import demand in Asia-Pacific will increase by 170% – by x 2.7 – by 2040.




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-20-2014

the UK, and specifically its North Sea oil industry which according to the BBC is in a "crisis" and according to Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, the industry was "close to collapse".

"It's A Huge Crisis" - The UK Oil Industry Is "Close To Collapse" | Zero Hedge

U.S. shale producers may begin producing less as crude prices drop to five-year lows -- with some North Dakota Bakken operators already treading water -- as rig counts nationwide are poised to decrease by nearly 600 in the next six months, according to Genscape.

U.S. rig count poised to shed 600 rigs within six months, Genscape says

Global oil markets are experiencing a “problem” that is temporary and caused mainly by a slowdown in the global economy, Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said, according to state-run Saudi Press Agency. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, will stick to its policy to maintain output, Naimi said, according to SPA. “It is difficult if not impossible for the kingdom or OPEC to carry out any measure that would lead to a decrease in its market share or the increase of others’ market share,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s Naimi says difficult for OPEC to cut oil output

Crude oil production from U.S. wells is poised to approach a 42-year record next year as drillers ignore the recent decline in price pointing them in the opposite direction. U.S. energy producers plan to pump more crude in 2015 as declining equipment costs and enhanced drilling techniques more than offset the collapse in oil markets, said Troy Eckard, whose Eckard Global LLC owns stakes in more than 260 North Dakota shale wells.

Exxon shows why U.S. oil output rises as prices plummet




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-20-2014

Here is Marks' sketch of the self-correcting aspects that are likely to emerge from the recent drop in oil prices: A decline in the price of gasoline induces people to drive more, increasing the demand for oil. A decline in the price of oil negatively impacts the economics of drilling, reducing additions to supply. A decline in the price of oil causes producers to cut production and leave oil in the ground to be sold later at higher prices.  As Marks writes: "In other words, lower oil prices — in and of themselves — eventually make for higher oil prices."

Howard Marks On Oil - Business Insider

The price of benchmark Brent crude has fallen 46 percent since June on the back of a glut in global supply and waning demand, and has put pressure both the oil and commodity sectors. Now, green energy firms are also suffering, as investors see the lower oil price as a disincentive to invest in greener technology – or so-called "cleantech."

Green tech: Oil price slump's latest victim

The boomtown in the heart of Canada's oil sands region is getting nervous. Fort McMurray, surrounded by the boreal forest of northern Canada, has long drawn thousands with jobs that paid six-figure salaries to a region that produces more crude than anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere. But a slide in oil prices since June has fueled a sense of unease in the community of nearly 73,000 which for over a decade has rarely known anything but the good times.

In Canada's oil sands, a boomtown starts feeling the chill

It may be a little late for Russian capital controls. The collapse of the ruble has prompted a flight of capital as investors and savers in Russia seek shelter outside the country's borders. A CNBC.com analysis of money flows monitored by the Russian Central Bank shows that large cash hoards have already left the country. Nations in the ex-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have been disproportionate recipients of those funds. Ukraine is also a major destination for Russian cash.

Capital flight from Russia: Data show cash has already fled




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - ArtM72 - 12-20-2014

'admin' pid='53443' datel Wrote:

Here is Marks' sketch of the self-correcting aspects that are likely to emerge from the recent drop in oil prices: A decline in the price of gasoline induces people to drive more, increasing the demand for oil. A decline in the price of oil negatively impacts the economics of drilling, reducing additions to supply. A decline in the price of oil causes producers to cut production and leave oil in the ground to be sold later at higher prices.  As Marks writes: "In other words, lower oil prices — in and of themselves — eventually make for higher oil prices."

Howard Marks On Oil - Business Insider

The price of benchmark Brent crude has fallen 46 percent since June on the back of a glut in global supply and waning demand, and has put pressure both the oil and commodity sectors. Now, green energy firms are also suffering, as investors see the lower oil price as a disincentive to invest in greener technology – or so-called "cleantech."

Green tech: Oil price slump's latest victim

The boomtown in the heart of Canada's oil sands region is getting nervous. Fort McMurray, surrounded by the boreal forest of northern Canada, has long drawn thousands with jobs that paid six-figure salaries to a region that produces more crude than anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere. But a slide in oil prices since June has fueled a sense of unease in the community of nearly 73,000 which for over a decade has rarely known anything but the good times.

In Canada's oil sands, a boomtown starts feeling the chill

It may be a little late for Russian capital controls. The collapse of the ruble has prompted a flight of capital as investors and savers in Russia seek shelter outside the country's borders. A CNBC.com analysis of money flows monitored by the Russian Central Bank shows that large cash hoards have already left the country. Nations in the ex-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have been disproportionate recipients of those funds. Ukraine is also a major destination for Russian cash.

Capital flight from Russia: Data show cash has already fled

Admin -

Those analysis briefs all seemed to be very rational.  I wonder if there are any irrational inputs to the oil prices.  I haven't followed this threat all the closely.  I'll have to go back and check.

Thks for your continue work on this.  Very informative.

Art




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-20-2014

["Admin -

Those analysis briefs all seemed to be very rational. I wonder if there are any irrational inputs to the oil prices. I haven't followed this threat all the closely. I'll have to go back and check.

Thks for your continue work on this. Very informative.

Art"]

Well, my pleasure, thanks. It's just some of my own background reading on oil (and to some extent, Russia) and then I thought I could just as easily put it in a thread. I see plenty of irrational stuff (the big sell-off in alternative energy, for instance), but it's my opinion most short-term stock price movement are fairly random, or in any case, that people generally look for more meaning and rationality than is often warranted.


RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-21-2014

"We've argued for a few years that credit standards were dropping as investors—chasing yield—became less disciplined and less discerning. But we knew buying opportunities wouldn't arrive until a negative 'igniter' caused the tide to go out, exposing the debt's weaknesses," the Oaktree Capital Management chairman wrote in a note to clients late Thursday. "The current oil crisis is an example of something with the potential to grow into that role. We'll see how far it goes."

Howard Marks: Oil prices expose 'debt's weaknesses'

Russia's economic crisis is an "extremely grave" situation not only for the country itself, but for the rest of the European Union, the former president of the European Central Bank (ECB) told CNBC.

Russia situation 'extremely grave': Trichet

The Russian ruble isn't the only currency getting hit by the plunge in oil prices. The slide in the ruble, which has lost nearly half its value since July, has raised concerns of a wider economic fallout if the drop continues. As oil prices have fallen, currencies of other developing countries that rely heavily on exports also have been sliding. The list includes Nigeria, Angola and Algeria, which depend on hard currency from the sale of oil to finance government operations and pay for imported goods.

Crude price slide hits oil exporter currencies

The real question is "Will the crisis in Russia be transmitted to Europe and perhaps the U.S.?" The answer that we hear is, "no." After all, Russia only accounts for only 2.7 percent of world GDP and 1.7 percent of world trade. Additionally U.S. bank lending to Russia is 0.1 percent of GDP and lending to Russia is equally insignificant among other important lending countries like Japan, the U.K., and Germany are below 1 percent of GDP. Moreover, the losses from declining oil prices are concentrated among oil producers and the positives are dispersed among many consumers. That's the argument. We don't really buy it.

Why Russia crisis could have a ripple effect—commentary

While the case is compelling, there is more to think about. As market historians will tell you, the Southeast Asia crisis began in Thailand in 1997. At the time Thailand was an even smaller percent of global GDP and global trade. Thailand was not nearly as important an export destination in 1997 as Russia is today. Moreover, U.S. bank lending and lending to Thailand by other larger countries was even less significant. But, as insignificant as the crisis in Thailand was thought to be, it was not. The crisis was transmitted throughout the world in ways that very few anticipated. There are ordinarily three important transmission mechanisms

Why Russia crisis could have a ripple effect—commentary




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 12-21-2014

"Irresponsible" levels of output by producers from outside the OPEC oil cartel is among the main causes of the slump in prices, the United Arab Emirates energy minister charged Sunday.

'Irresponsible' non-OPEC output behind oil price plunge: UAE - Yahoo Finance

One of the most prolific oil and gas basins on the planet sits just off Cuba's northwest coast, and the thaw in relations with the United States is giving rise to hopes that Cuba can now get in on the action.

Hopes, fears, doubts surround Cuba's oil future - Yahoo Finance

OPEC has decided against reducing output, so the plunge in oil prices is likely to continue. The market looks like it will be oversupplied by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day next year, as long as OPEC refuses to budge. However, the supply and demand situation could shift the other way rather quickly, driving the price of oil back up before too long.

Why oil price plunge could be short-lived

The world needs only meager demand growth for oil to eliminate the current supply glut. As the following slide from a recent Whiting Petroleum (WLL) investor presentation shows, just maintaining the current global demand growth trajectory would require 7 million additional barrels of oil per day of supply by the end of the decade.

Why oil price plunge could be short-lived

Dec 21 (Reuters) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday that the best way to address current conditions in the oil market was to "let the most efficient producers produce".

Saudi Oil Min: Let the most efficient producers produce | Reuters

Iraq Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said on Sunday Iraq's total oil production would reach four million barrels per day (bpd) after Baghdad reached an agreement on exports with Kurdish regional authorities.

Iraq oil min says total production to reach 4 mln bpd | Reuters

The selloff in oil prices is expected to spur more energy mergers next year, as giants such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) , Chevron (CVX) , Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT) snap up weaker players.

3 Oil Companies That Are Likely Takeover Targets as Prices Plunge - TheStreet