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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-04-2015

Congress is set to begin consideration of a measure to lift the decades-old ban on U.S. crude exports after a government study concluded the move wouldn’t raise gasoline prices for consumers, people familiar with the plan said. A panel in the House of Representatives is planning to vote on a measure to lift the ban, which dates back to the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, as early as next week, according to three lobbyists working on the matter, who asked not to be named because the markup hasn’t been announced yet. The full House may vote on it later in September, leaving ahead the more difficult task of gaining enough support for repeal in the Senate, they said.

Oil export bill said to be set to move as price fears ease

A potential boost in natural gas supply from Iran and Egypt may exacerbate a worldwide glut, reshape the global market and threaten U.S. export ambitions, according to Citigroup Inc. Projects from North America to East Africa and Australia may be impacted as Iran progresses with its "supergiant" South Pars gas field and after Eni SA’s discovery of massive resources offshore Egypt, Citigroup analysts including Anthony Yuen said in a report Sept. 2. The two developments may displace demand for LNG in the Middle East and beyond, possibly deterring future U.S. export projects, according to the bank.

Gas exports from Iran, Egypt seen threatening U.S. ambitions

OAO NOVATEK and China’s Silk Road Fund (SRF) have concluded a framework agreement on the acquisition by SRF—a $40-billion medium- to long-term investment fund—of a 9.9% equity stake in the Yamal LNG project. The Yamal LNG project envisages the construction of an LNG plant with an annual capacity of 16.5 million tons per annum. According to the agreement, the transaction is scheduled to close after the satisfaction of stipulated conditions precedent, including the receipt of all necessary approvals. Following the completion of the deal, the shareholder structure of OAO Yamal LNG will be as follows: OAO NOVATEK (50.1%), Total (20%), CNPC (20%) and SRF (9.9%).

Russia’s NOVATEK sells 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG to Chinese investment fund

INPEX Corp. has submitted a revised plan of development (POD) for Abadi gas field in the Masela Block, Arafura Sea, Indonesia, as a result of a greater volume of natural gas reserves being confirmed, among other factors. With the cooperation of strategic partner Shell, INPEX is preparing for the development of Abadi gas field, as operator, through its subsidiary INPEX Masela, Ltd. The Revised POD envisions the adoption of a Floating LNG (FLNG) plant with an annual LNG processing capacity of 7.5 million tons.

INPEX revises development plan for Abadi LNG project offshore Indonesia




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-06-2015

Andy Hall, one of the best-known oil traders who’s been bullish on prices, said the decline in the oil market isn’t a repeat of 1998 or 2008. The absence of “extreme contango,” which occurs when commodities prices close to delivery are cheaper than those to be delivered at later dates, suggests that “the world, whilst moderately oversupplied, is not awash in oil,” Hall said in a letter to investors.

Hedge Fund Manager Hall Says World Market ‘Not Awash in Oil’ - Bloomberg Business

While OPEC’s fight to snatch market share from rival oil producers might look like a costly failure as prices languish below $50/bbl, an entirely different picture could emerge next year. Supplies outside OPEC are expected to contract in 2016 for the first time since 2008, sliding by 200,000 bpd, according to the International Energy Agency. With consumption set to grow by 1.4 MMbpd, OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia could seize the chance to broaden their market as competitors damaged by the price slump fall off.

For OPEC, this year’s painful oil slump will bring gains in 2016

Investors sent a surprising message to U.S. shale producers as crude fell almost 20% in August: keep calm and drill on. While most oil stocks have fallen sharply this month, the least affected by the slump share one thing in common: they don’t plan to slow down, even though a glut of supply is forcing prices down. Cimarex Energy Co. jumped more than 8% in two days after executives said Aug. 5 that their rig count would more than double next year. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. rallied for three days when it disclosed a similar increase.

Blame oil glut on investors who still love drilling over profits

Global LNG capacity would more than double from 341 mtpa in 2015 to 811 mtpa by 2019 based on proposed natural gas liquefaction projects, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData. The company’s latest report states that the scale of the North American project pipeline is unparalleled, totaling 32 individual liquefaction plants with over 287 mtpa of capacity through the end of the decade. Dramatic liquefaction capacity growth is also anticipated in Africa, Europe and Asia.

North America spearheading rise in LNG liquefaction capacity growth




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - Putncalls - 09-07-2015

'admin' pid='62452' datel Wrote:

Congress is set to begin consideration of a measure to lift the decades-old ban on U.S. crude exports after a government study concluded the move wouldn’t raise gasoline prices for consumers, people familiar with the plan said. A panel in the House of Representatives is planning to vote on a measure to lift the ban, which dates back to the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, as early as next week, according to three lobbyists working on the matter, who asked not to be named because the markup hasn’t been announced yet. The full House may vote on it later in September, leaving ahead the more difficult task of gaining enough support for repeal in the Senate, they said.

Oil export bill said to be set to move as price fears ease

A potential boost in natural gas supply from Iran and Egypt may exacerbate a worldwide glut, reshape the global market and threaten U.S. export ambitions, according to Citigroup Inc. Projects from North America to East Africa and Australia may be impacted as Iran progresses with its "supergiant" South Pars gas field and after Eni SA’s discovery of massive resources offshore Egypt, Citigroup analysts including Anthony Yuen said in a report Sept. 2. The two developments may displace demand for LNG in the Middle East and beyond, possibly deterring future U.S. export projects, according to the bank.

Gas exports from Iran, Egypt seen threatening U.S. ambitions

OAO NOVATEK and China’s Silk Road Fund (SRF) have concluded a framework agreement on the acquisition by SRF—a $40-billion medium- to long-term investment fund—of a 9.9% equity stake in the Yamal LNG project. The Yamal LNG project envisages the construction of an LNG plant with an annual capacity of 16.5 million tons per annum. According to the agreement, the transaction is scheduled to close after the satisfaction of stipulated conditions precedent, including the receipt of all necessary approvals. Following the completion of the deal, the shareholder structure of OAO Yamal LNG will be as follows: OAO NOVATEK (50.1%), Total (20%), CNPC (20%) and SRF (9.9%).

Russia’s NOVATEK sells 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG to Chinese investment fund

INPEX Corp. has submitted a revised plan of development (POD) for Abadi gas field in the Masela Block, Arafura Sea, Indonesia, as a result of a greater volume of natural gas reserves being confirmed, among other factors. With the cooperation of strategic partner Shell, INPEX is preparing for the development of Abadi gas field, as operator, through its subsidiary INPEX Masela, Ltd. The Revised POD envisions the adoption of a Floating LNG (FLNG) plant with an annual LNG processing capacity of 7.5 million tons.

INPEX revises development plan for Abadi LNG project offshore Indonesia

Eni's new gs field with siesmic based volume estimate is 200 miles of shore, a mille underwater and the wells need to be 15.000 feet deep.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/analysis-egypts-gas-superfield-find-and-its-energy-future-1686342139




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-07-2015

So this leads us to the elephant in the room, the gusher Marcellus shale natural gas production. There is no question that anyone who has done any research understands that natural gas production has peaked in every region except the Marcellus region. However, given the decline in rig counts and the geology of decline rates, it is a fool's errand to believe that there isn't a risk of a black swan supply shock from the Marcellus when production has grown from 2 Bcf/d in 2007 to north of 16 Bcf/d. When the 2015 hedges roll off and the tide goes out, the market will focus on how much money CHK and others are losing in the Marcellus.

Refuting The Natural Gas Bears | Seeking Alpha

That is how the Wall Street Journal phrases what is going on in the natural gas industry, where gas exploration companies continue to innovate the same drilling techniques that sparked the original shale gas revolution. By now we have all heard about fracking and horizontal drilling. But companies continue to expand these techniques and fine tune them. Now, according to Wall Street Journal, a few companies in Louisiana have begun using “supersize” versions of horizontal drilling. Comstock Resources and Chesapeake Energy, among others, have enjoyed huge successes by extending the lateral portions of horizontal wells far beyond what has been done in the past, adding thousands of feet to their lengths.

“Supersize” Fracking Could Keep Natural Gas Prices Low For Years | OilPrice.com

Cheap oil should be good economic medicine for almost anybody who isn't trying to sell the stuff. Yet only one country has been able to take full advantage of the 14-month collapse in the price of crude: the U.S.

Why the U.S. Gets the Most Out of Cheap Oil - Bloomberg View

Angola risks losing investment from foreign oil companies as costly government regulations and low world prices make the country, vying to be Africa’s largest producer, less attractive to operate in, an industry executive said. A series of measures introduced by Angola’s government in recent years has pushed production costs up as much as $500 million annually, said Jean-Michel Lavergne, general manager for Total E&P Angola, the country’s biggest driller.

Foreign Oil Drillers Sour on Regulation-Happy Angola, Total Says - Bloomberg Business




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-09-2015

Tomnay outlines the current market conditions, which are shaping the global LNG market, "Global LNG supply is presently around 250 MMtpa and there is a further 140 MMtpa under construction. Recognizing that the global market will struggle to absorb such a large supply uptick, for some time now we've been forecasting a soft global market. However that bearish prognosis is now being exacerbated by a demand downturn."

Wood Mackenzie: Where are all the LNG project postponements?

When oil goes down, the western companies are hurt more than the Russian companies,” said Maxim Edelson, a Senior Director at Fitch Ratings in Moscow. Because Russian tax rates adjust automatically to lower prices the nation’s companies enjoy a buffer to the slump in crude while “a lot of the hit is taken by the government.”

Move Over Exxon, Russian Drillers Are Oil World's Top Performers - Bloomberg Business

Mexico is willing to work with OPEC if the group tries to stabilize crude markets amid a global supply glut and slide in prices, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after talks with Mexico’s labor secretary. Mexico is the third-largest producer in the Western Hemisphere, according to BP Plc data. The Latin American nation isn’t a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, though it has cooperated with OPEC before by cutting output in efforts to buttress prices. The group supplies about 40% of the world’s oil.

Iran says Mexico to help if OPEC tries to manage oil market

Indonesia is on track to resume full OPEC membership in December after a break of almost seven years, according to three people familiar with the matter. The Asian nation, which suspended membership in January 2009 after becoming a net oil importer, received formal notification that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 12 members all support its return, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public. The move is subject to final approval at the group’s ministerial meeting on Dec. 4, they said.

Indonesia said to be on course to rejoin OPEC in December




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-10-2015

A funding squeeze threatens to cut U.S. oil output by as much as half a million barrels a day by the end of the year, with shale producers among the worst affected, Citigroup Inc. said. “Capital markets thus far have plugged shale’s funding gap but are showing signs of tightening, with impacts for drilling, oil supply and global prices,” Richard Morse and Ed Morse, analysts at Citigroup in New York, said in a note. Access to high-yield credit markets for debt-strapped producers is “sharply contracting,” they said.

Citigroup sees U.S. oil output losing 500,000 bpd

The main reason behind the crash this time? As everybody who watches the financial networks knows, China is falling apart, and so is its oil demand. But there is just one thing… The data actually shows that China’s oil demand is holding up just fine. There has been no drop in China’s continued growth in oil demand in 2015. Focus on my wording there please. Not only is China’s demand for oil not falling, it is continuing to grow at a rate that is in line with recent years.

Everybody Panic… China’s Oil Demand Is Crashing!!! - The Daily Reckoning

U.S. oil exploration and production companies have been living on the Federal Reserve's easy money throughout the sharp downturn in crude prices, but their credit supply is about to run dry, oil analyst Stephen Schork said Wednesday. "The E&Ps have been bleeding. They're going to start to hemorrhage in the next couple of months," the publisher of the Schork report told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

US drillers about to start hemorrhaging: Schork

Now that the back end of the price curve has now crashed, exploration and production companies are unable to hedge to the same degree, he said. These drillers face a re-evaluation of their credit in the fall, and banks are likely to significantly reduce their ability to borrow, Schork added.

US drillers about to start hemorrhaging: Schork

It’s the cheapest opportunity in six years to be a shareholder in Europe’s largest oil and gas company. BG Group Plc, the oil and gas producer Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed to buy for about $70 billion, is trading at a price equivalent to paying just over 14 pounds ($21.53) for a Shell B share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest valuation for Shell since the global recession of 2009 and a discount of 13% to the company’s current share price.

Shell cheapest in 6 years for buyers braving takeover doubts




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-12-2015

Gazprom PJSC sold about a third of the natural gas offered in its first-ever auction for European buyers, instead targeting higher prices amid a regional glut and plunging commodity costs. The world’s biggest exporter signed deals with 15 traders for more than 1 billion cubic m of gas to be delivered in Germany this winter, its export unit said Thursday in an e- mailed statement. Gazprom offered 3.24 billion cubic m of gas, or about 2% of the planned exports to Europe this year, to 39 bidders from Vitol SA to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The auction prices were higher than Gazprom’s average contract rates, as well as European market prices, the company said without elaborating.

Gazprom prefers price over volume in first EU gas auctions

OPEC members and other oil-producing nations will respond to a request by Venezuela that the supplier group meet to try to stabilize crude prices, Qatar’s Energy and Industry Minister Mohammed Al Sada said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has come under pressure from some of its 12 members since deciding last year not to reduce output. Brent crude has dropped more than 50% in the last year amid a surplus in global supply. Venezuela has proposed that OPEC hold a session to arrest the slide and wants to invite non-OPEC producers, such as Russia, while Iran said Mexico would join any OPEC effort to cut supply.

Oil producers seen by Qatar as studying request for OPEC summit

Oil bears are cashing out. Hedge funds slashed short positions in West Texas Intermediate by 13 percent in the week ended Sept. 1 as the largest three-day rally in 25 years sent crude up by almost $10 a barrel before it dropped again. It was the biggest liquidation of bearish bets since May.

Oil Bears Cashing Out From Crude Market's Roller-Coaster Ride - Bloomberg Business

Hedge funds covered only a small part of their gross short position in U.S. crude oil futures and options during the recent rally, implying there is a lot more short-covering still to come. Money managers held short positions equivalent to 136 million barrels at the end of trading on Sept. 1, according to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.

COLUMN-Hedge fund short-covering in oil has further to run: Kemp | Reuters




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-13-2015

To be able to find them back (they are in another thread):

Oil supplies outside OPEC will decline next year by the most in more than two decades as the price rout curbs U.S. shale output, according to the International Energy Agency. Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will fall by 500,000 barrels a day to 57.7 million in 2016, the Paris-based adviser said Friday in its monthly report. While fuel demand this year will be the strongest since 2010, record-high oil inventories in developed nations won’t start to diminish until the second half of next year, and the revival of Iranian exports with the removal of sanctions may swell supplies further, it said.

IEA Sees Oil Supply Outside OPEC Falling by Most Since 1992 - Bloomberg Business

A renewed plunge in oil prices and the winding down of other financial lifelines is forcing shale drillers to auction off once-prized assets and settle for less in potential deals. This week, companies such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. said they are embracing the strategy as they confront the reality of a prolonged, painful crash. While executives have assured investors that it won’t be a fire sale, recent deals suggest that prices have fallen significantly from even a few months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shale drillers turn to asset sales as early swagger wanes

The oil bust’s toll on corporate payrolls continues to grow. Job cuts in the petroleum industry reached nearly 196,000 globally last week, according to a Houston energy consultant, after ConocoPhillips said it would cut 10 percent of its workforce and other energy firms announced more layoffs.

Global Job Cuts in the Oil Industry Nearing 200,000 : Greentech Media




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-13-2015

If there are no postponements, Wood Mackenzie says the market could see an additional 100 MMtpa of LNG sanctioned in the next six to 18 months, extending the likelihood of an oversupply of LNG in Asia to 2025.

Wood Mackenzie: Where are all the LNG project postponements?

Six liquefied natural gas projects under construction at a cost of $200 billion will struggle to break even because of the oil price slump, the International Energy Agency said, and there is little prospect of three in the planning stage going ahead. The agency said even if oil prices recovered and averaged $US60 a barrel for the next few years, Australia's LNG industry – one of the world's biggest – will struggle to be profitable.

LNG: $200b worth of Australian projects 'probably not breaking even'

The projects not expected to proceed include Woodside Petroleum's Browse floating project and its Sunrise venture in the Timor Sea and ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton's Scarborough project off Western Australia. The IEA also doubts any existing LNG projects in Australia will receive the green light to expand this decade.

LNG: $200b worth of Australian projects 'probably not breaking even'

The small Pacific nation of Papua New Guinea, however, is seen as one of the few places where new plants will probably succeed because it costs less, according to Deutsche Bank AG and Bloomberg Intelligence. That helps explain Woodside Petroleum Ltd.’s bid unveiled Tuesday for Oil Search Ltd., Exxon Mobil Corp.’s partner in the $19 billion PNG LNG project. “Oil Search has the lowest-cost LNG growth opportunities globally,” John Hirjee and Andrew Lewandowski, Deutsche Bank analysts in Melbourne, wrote in a report after Woodside’s offer was announced. "The assets are strongly positioned to deliver accretive growth in the medium-term."

Woodside's $8 Billion Oil Search Bid Targets Lower Costs in PNG - Bloomberg Business




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 09-14-2015

Few things have more potential to spook the oil market than the prospect of Russia joining forces with OPEC. Speculation that such a move was afoot last month drove crude to its biggest three-day gain in 25 years. Despite the market buzz, there are sound economic and technical reasons why this is unlikely to happen.

Why Putin won't be helping OPEC cut oil production

Drillers in the U.S. idled 16 rigs this week, representing the third consecutive week of decline for the Baker Hughes rig count. The Houston-based service company reported 848 rigs turning to the right on Friday. The new total is the lowest-recorded count since Jan. 17, 2003, when 845 active rigs were reported. This week, the number of rigs seeking oil fell by 10 to 652, representing the second straight week of decline after rising for six straight weeks.

U.S drillers drop rigs for third consecutive week

U.S. shale oil production will drop 9% next year as a crude price below $50/bbl “slams brakes” on years of supply growth, the International Energy Agency said. “Oil’s downward spiral to fresh six-year lows below $50/bbl has dimmed the prospects for a recovery in U.S. drilling activity,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly market report Friday. “Unless oil prices bounce back in coming months, supply is forecast to fall by 385,000 bpd next year to 3.9 MMbopd.”

IEA sees U.S. shale oil output shrinking in 2016 on price slump

INPEX Corporation has updated the expected production start-up schedule and raised the anticipated production capacity of the Ichthys LNG project, which it is currently developing as operator alongside its project partners. Production, which was initially expected to start toward the end of December 2016, is now expected to start in the third quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, INPEX will raise the annual LNG production capacity by approximately 6%.

INPEX delays start, raises capacity of Ichthys LNG project