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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 01-28-2017

Rising oil prices and spending cuts over the past two to three years have improved the cash flow position for many of the oil majors, lessening the prospects of a deeper debt spiral, credit downgrades and dividend reductions. As recently as a few months ago, debt among the largest oil companies was rising at a worrying pace, with ExxonMobil – usually considered the most financially sound out of its peers – reported an eye-watering $46 billion of debt at the end of the third quarter in 2016. Exxon even lost its coveted AAA credit rating last year as ratings agencies warned about its growing leverage.

Is The Oil Crisis Over? Oil Majors Report Positive Cash Flow | OilPrice.com

Surging debt dogged the world’s largest oil companies during crude’s collapse. Now, sweeping cost cuts and rising prices have combined to lessen the need to borrow. Since prices began to sink in 2014, the five “supermajors” more than doubled their combined net debt to $220 billion. That may be as bad as it gets. At $50/bbl, they can balance their books and pay dividends without borrowing for the first time in five years, according to analysts at Jefferies International. All of the drillers will probably report profit growth in the next two weeks.

Big oil debt tops out as cost cuts combine with price rally

BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest overseas investor in U.S. shale, boosted spending on its onshore oil and gas division as rising prices lure drillers to add rigs and spur a deals spree. The company boosted spending on the unit to $165 million in the three months to Dec. 31, from $108 million the previous quarter, according to a BHP statement. It also boosted overall planned petroleum exploration spending by 17% to $820 million for fiscal 2017, after its successful bid for Mexico’s Trion field and positive drilling results in the Gulf of Mexico.

BHP lifts shale spending as oil gains lure drillers to add rigs

President Donald Trump signed several executive orders this week intended to juice the American energy sector, calling for expedited environmental reviews and the advancement of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines. He also is trying to erase any sign of climate change by scrubbing government websites of climate data and even any mention of the phrase. No doubt more directives will be forthcoming in the next few days, not to mention the regulatory actions his agencies – EPA and Interior chief among them – will take to remove all restrictions on oil and gas drilling once his nominees get into place.

Oil Price Meltdown – Is Trump Setting The Oil Markets Up For Another Bust? | OilPrice.com




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 01-30-2017

It could take more than a political standoff between President Donald Trump and Mexico to keep U.S. shale gas from flowing south. While Mexico works to reverse declining oil and gas production, the nation’s burning record amounts of natural gas pulled from tight-rock formations north of the border. Pipeline deliveries of the fuel from the U.S. have more than doubled in the past two years, and Mexico’s now tied with Chile as the biggest buyer of tanker shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas leaving Louisiana’s coast.

U.S. gas one trade that may survive Trump’s Mexico showdown

Chevron Corp. posted its first annual loss since at least 1980, signaling the difficulties faced by the world’s biggest oil companies as they struggle to emerge from the worst collapse in a generation. The company had a $497 million loss last year and failed to replace all of the crude and natural gas it pumped with new reserves, San Ramon, California-based Chevron said in a statement on Friday. Shares slumped the most in five months.

Chevron’s first loss in decades signals hard time for giants

A U.S. energy regulator filed his letter of resignation on Thursday. And with that letter, he may have just brought federal decisions on multi-billion-dollar natural gas pipelines to a halt. Norman Bay said he’ll leave the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, effective Feb. 3. His announcement followed President Donald Trump’s decision to replace him as the agency’s chairman with his fellow commissioner, Cheryl LaFleur.

Resignation threatens to bring U.S. pipeline rulings to halt

In the span of 50 years we’ve had at least two paradigm shifting events in oil and gas geology. First--recognition of and understanding of plate tectonics as the dominant tectonic force that shapes our world, and second, understanding that we can exploit reserves from shale source beds and other various rocks that were thought to be too impermeable to produce either gas or oil. We have become so successful in finding and adding oil and gas to our production mix through unconventional methodologies that, instead of freezing in the dark as Hubbert’s peak oil model suggested would happen, we have cratered the price of both oil and gas to 20 year lows…and, depending upon how you look at it, threatened our existence as an industry in the process and have completely upended the historical power balance between the U.S. and foreign government owned NGO’s.

The size of the North American oil and gas prize—and what it means




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 01-31-2017

Oil dropped from a three-week high amid doubts that OPEC and other producers will make promised output cuts while drilling increases in the U.S. Futures fell as much as 1.5% in New York after failing to extend Thursday’s 2% rally. Prices climbed yesterday as Algeria’s Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa said OPEC and other producers are due to reach the 1.8 MMbpd reduction target next month. U.S. crude production rose to the highest level since April last week as higher prices increased drilling.

Oil falls from three-week high amid doubts over cuts

However..

OPEC appears to have persuaded investors that it’s making good on promised production cuts. Money managers are the most optimistic on West Texas Intermediate oil prices in at least a decade as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers reduce crude output. Saudi Arabia has said more than 80% of the targeted reduction of 1.8 MMbopd has been implemented. Oil shipments from OPEC are plunging this month, according to tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics SA.

OPEC convinces investors that its oil output cuts are real

The North American upstream industry is set to stage a comeback, according to new data presented by World Oil, the premier trade publication for the international upstream industry. According to proprietary survey data—gathered from U.S. operators, U.S. state agencies and international petroleum ministries/departments—World Oil forecasts the following for 2017: • U.S. drilling will jump 26.8% higher, to 18,552 wells

U.S. operators plan major drilling boost as industry shakes off downturn

Oil traded near $53/bbl after drilling in the U.S. climbed to the highest in more than a year, countering OPEC’s efforts to clear a supply glut. Futures were little changed in New York after falling 1.1% on Friday. Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose last week to the most since November 2015, according to Baker Hughes, while American crude output is at the highest since April, government data shows. Oil supplies from OPEC are sliding this month, according to tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics SA.

Oil trades near $53 as U.S. drilling accelerates amid OPEC cuts




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-02-2017

Exxon Mobil Corp. missed analyst estimates after a $2-billion writedown in the value of U.S. natural gas fields. The fourth-quarter profit of $1.68 billion, or 41 cents a share, compared with a profit of $2.78 billion, or 67 cents, a year earlier, the Irving, Texas-based oil producer said in a statement on Tuesday. That was below the lowest of 21 estimates of analyst surveyed by Bloomberg.

Exxon misses estimates as $2-billion writedown erodes cash

OPEC appears to have persuaded investors that it’s making good on promised production cuts. Enter your email Sign Up Money managers are the most optimistic on West Texas Intermediate oil prices in at least a decade as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers reduce crude output. Saudi Arabia has said more than 80 percent of the targeted reduction of 1.8 million barrels a day has been implemented. Oil shipments from OPEC are plunging this month, according to tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics SA.

OPEC Convinces Investors That Its Oil Output Cuts Are Real - Bloomberg

West African oil producers will next month send the most crude to Asia in at least five years, the latest sign of how refineries in the world’s biggest demand region are scouring the world to replace supplies cut by OPEC’s Middle East producers. Shipments on the trade route, among the longest for supertankers, are set to soar to 2.19 MMbopd in February, the highest level since at least August 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from traders. China and India will be the biggest buyers. In recent weeks, a similar picture emerged from both the North Sea, where unprecedented eastbound flows have been observed, and also the U.S.

West African oil floods to Asia in latest sign of OPEC’s impact

Oil-services giant Halliburton told employees to stay put. Another global oil company is reconsidering whether to place a crude trader in Houston. And universities that train energy workers across the country estimated that hundreds of students may be affected. Of all the energy sectors that may feel the pain of President Donald Trump’s order to temporarily ban people from seven majority-Muslim countries, oil and natural gas companies—industries he vowed to help during his election campaign—stand to be hit the hardest. On Monday, energy companies led declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as investors weighed Trump’s first week in office.

Oil braces for Trump ban fallout as Halliburton says stay put




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-02-2017

The North American upstream industry is set to stage a comeback, according to new data presented by World Oil, the premier trade publication for the international upstream industry. According to proprietary survey data—gathered from U.S. operators, U.S. state agencies and international petroleum ministries/departments—World Oil forecasts the following for 2017: • U.S. drilling will jump 26.8% higher, to 18,552 wells • U.S. footage will increase 29.8%, to 151.5 MMft of hole. • U.S. Gulf of Mexico E&P activity, focused on deepwater projects, will go up approximately 9.4%, with increasing well depths and footage. • Canadian activity will begin to improve, gaining 21.6% to 4,212 wells. • Global drilling should increase moderately to 39,742 wells, for a 6.1% pick-up. • Global offshore drilling, reflecting stagnant capex outside North America, will only increase 1.4%, to 2,604 wells.

U.S. operators plan major drilling boost as industry shakes off downturn

The U.S. for the first time is pushing more crude and refined petroleum products into Latin America than it brings back, signaling a change in the global trade map that could be tested if President Donald Trump introduces border taxes. The scales tipped in favor of the U.S. in October, when it recorded a surplus of 89,000 bopd, the first gain for the U.S. since records began in 1993, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In November, the surplus grew to 184,000 bopd, the EIA said Tuesday. That compares to a 4.3-MMbbl deficit in 2005.

U.S. enjoys first-ever oil trade surplus with Latin America

Crude prices may have stabilized, but it’s still not a great time to be Big Oil. Investors eliminated about $53 billion in market value for producers over three days as the twin titans of U.S. oil posted their worst annual financial outcomes in decades. With Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA and BP Plc due to announce 2016 results in coming days, the grim headlines may not yet be over.

‘Nasty year’ leaves oil investors wary as profits fall short

It could take more than a political standoff between President Donald Trump and Mexico to keep U.S. shale gas from flowing south. While Mexico works to reverse declining oil and gas production, the nation’s burning record amounts of natural gas pulled from tight-rock formations north of the border. Pipeline deliveries of the fuel from the U.S. have more than doubled in the past two years, and Mexico’s now tied with Chile as the biggest buyer of tanker shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas leaving Louisiana’s coast.

U.S. gas one trade that may survive Trump’s Mexico showdown




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-04-2017

Royal Dutch Shell appeared to put the worst of the oil slump behind it as rising cash flow allowed Europe’s largest energy company to trim debt for the first time since the downturn began. Investors looked beyond a worse-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, sending shares higher. Following billions of dollars of cost reductions and a recovery in oil prices just as production rose last year, the company generated enough cash to cover spending and dividends for a second consecutive quarter -- assuaging what has been a key concern for shareholders throughout the two-and-a-half year rout.

Shell signals worst of oil slump is over as debt declines

OPEC cut output by 840,000 barrels a day last month, but has more work to do to fully comply with last year’s historic production deal. OPEC countries pumped 32.3 MMbpd in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. The 10 members of the group that pledged to make cuts in Vienna two months ago implemented 83% of those reductions on average, but their efforts were offset by increases from Iran, Nigeria and Libya that were permitted under the terms of the agreement.

OPEC cuts oil production, but more work needed to fulfill deal

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for March sales to buyers from the U.S. to Asia as output cuts by OPEC and other producers shore up oil prices. State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, boosted its official pricing for Arab Light crude to Asia by 30 cents to 15 cents/bbl more than the regional benchmark, it said in an emailed statement. The company had been expected to increase pricing for the grade to a premium of 10 cents more than the Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders. Aramco raised the pricing for all grades for sale to the U.S., Northwest Europe, Mediterranean Region and Asia, according to the statement.

Saudi Arabia raises March crude oil pricing for all buyers

U.S. crude exports are poised to surpass production in four OPEC nations in 2017 and may grow even more if President Donald Trump honors pledges to ease drilling restrictions and maximize output. The world’s largest oil-consuming country could sell as much as 800,000 bpd of crude overseas this year, according to four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s more than OPEC producers Libya, Qatar, Ecuador and Gabon each pumped in December. The U.S. exported 527,000 bpd in the first 11 months of 2016, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show.

U.S. may export more oil in 2017 than four OPEC nations produce




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-04-2017

Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s annual profit tumbled in 2016 to its lowest level in over a decade, but the oil giant said it had turned an important corner, reporting a surge in cash despite low crude prices.

Shell Profit Slips to Lowest Level in More Than a Decade - WSJ

The Trump administration is set to impose fresh sanctions on dozens of Iranian entities for their alleged role in missile development and terrorism, in a move likely to escalate U.S. tensions with Tehran, according to people close to the deliberations.

Trump Administration Set to Impose New Sanctions on Iran Entities as Soon as Friday - WSJ

America’s East Coast gasoline glut is back and it’s so big that tankers bound for New York are being forced to detour mid-ocean toward other destinations.

Gasoline Tankers Dodge New York Again as Region’s Glut Returns - Bloomberg

Despite a recent OPEC agreement to cut oil production and boost prices, it is unrealistic to expect that the commodity will reach $65 a barrel in the near term, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency told CNBC.

It’s ambitious to think that oil prices could reach $65: IEA




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-06-2017

An audit of state oil producer Saudi Aramco’s crude reserves is showing “very reassuring” results ahead of what could be the world’s biggest share sale when the company sells a stake to investors next year, the kingdom’s energy minister said. The independent audit will be completed in the near future, and its results will be part of the prospectus for the initial public offering by Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters Thursday in Riyadh. Aramco will disclose its 2017 annual statements prior to the listing scheduled for next year, and the company is likely to sell shares on three stock exchanges, he said at a seminar earlier in the day.

Saudi Oil Minister Says Aramco Reserves Audit ‘Very Reassuring’ - Bloomberg

OPEC’s production cuts have already turned oil speculators the most bullish in a decade. As their effect is felt, crude could become even more alluring. The supply curbs are boosting short-term oil prices, pushing some higher than later-dated contracts for the first time in two years. As OPEC’s cuts begin to drain the world’s bloated fuel inventories, short-term crude should appreciate further, presenting financial investors with a new opportunity: a buy-and-hold strategy that once incurred losses will instead offer rewards.

OPEC to swell investor gains by turning market upside down

Oil headed for a third weekly gain as the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iran after a missile test and OPEC reached about 60% of its output-cut target. Futures rose as much as 1.3% in New York. The new restrictions were announced as President Donald Trump seeks to punish Tehran for its ballistic missile program after warning the Islamic Republic that it is “playing with fire.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut output by 840,000 bpd last month, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Oil set for weekly gain as U.S. imposes new Iran sanctions

It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oil prices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how U.S. shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity. Those two main factors are largely neutralizing each other, and are putting a floor and a cap to a price range of between $50 and $60.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started | OilPrice.com




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-07-2017

Donald Trump and global crude producers are set to take prices on a bumpy ride this year, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader. As investors are kept on tenterhooks over U.S. policies and whether OPEC and other nations will curb output as pledged, global benchmark Brent crude may vacillate between $52 and $62/bbl, according to Kho Hui Meng, the head of the Asian arm of Vitol Group. The market’s structure could also shift in the third quarter, with near-term cargoes turning costlier than those for later delivery, flipping from the other way around.

Top oil trader sees oil rattled as Trump makes market fret

Egypt plans to import as many as 108 cargoes of liquefied natural gas this year as the country prepares to start producing at two gas fields and move closer to its goal of self-sufficiency and even exports by 2019.

Egypt said to seek LNG as BP, Eni gas flow to restore exports

Money managers are the most bullish ever on West Texas Intermediate crude for a second week as signs show OPEC and other nations are slashing production. The group cut supply by 840,000 bpd last month, according to a Bloomberg survey, and Russia, the largest of the non-members taking part in the deal, reduced output by 117,000 bpd. WTI has traded above $50/bbl for the past seven weeks, encouraging Wall Street investors to fund more drilling in U.S. shale fields.

Investors are betting big that OPEC’s cuts are real

Oil traded near $54/bbl as increased tension between Iran and the U.S. countered expectations of rising American production. Futures fell 0.4% in New York, following three weekly gains. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration imposed new sanctions on Iran and warned the Islamic Republic that it was “playing with fire” by testing missiles. U.S. drillers boosted the rig count by 17 to 583, the most since October 2015, according to Baker Hughes Inc.

Oil trades near $54 as Iran tension offsets U.S. shale drilling boom




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 02-09-2017

President Trump’s vow to “unleash an energy revolution” by reversing regulations may send oil and natural gas prices tumbling in 2018, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Domestic oil and gas prices will likely suffer as the U.S. continues to increase its output, analysts including Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research, wrote in a note dated Feb. 3. Though U.S. oil and natural gas producers could see a surge in investment under Donald Trump’s numerous proposals from a likely reform of the corporate tax code to a possible border tax, prices may suffer from the resulting increase in output.

U.S. Oil and Gas Prices May Tumble On Trump's ‘Energy Revolution’ - Bloomberg

Iran is set to boost its crude output next month and a deadline to bid for oil and gas fields has been pushed back, a top Iranian oil official was reported as saying Saturday, amid fears a recent missile test could lead to new U.S. measures that would deter foreign companies from investing in the nation’s petroleum.

Iran Plans to Increase Oil Output Amid U.S. Tensions - WSJ

The oil market signals the supply glut may be easing, which analysts say could push current prices above future prices as soon as the second quarter

Signs of Shift in Oil Balance Draw Investors Back In - WSJ

Oil majors and trading houses are set to ship an unprecedented volume of U.S. crude oil to Asia in coming weeks, boosting already high flows to the region due to higher prices from OPEC production cuts. Traders have estimated that some 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day is set to leave the United States in February, with the majority of the cargoes headed to Asia.

Traders rush to ship U.S. oil as export window to Asia opens | Reuters