Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Peak oil demand
Oil prices could fall to as low as $10 per barrel within a decade as a “tsunami” of threats could undo demand. That prediction comes from Engie SA’s innovation chief, Thierry Lepercq, who says that oil demand will be hit on multiple fronts. He lays out five tsunamis: solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, “smart” buildings, and cheap hydrogen.

‘’EVs, Solar Could Push Oil Down To $10 By 2025’’ |

The oil industry must brace for five energy “tsunamis” that threaten to drag prices as low as $10/bbl in less than a decade, according to Engie SA’s innovation chief. The falling cost of solar power and battery storage, rising sales of electric vehicles, increasingly “smart” buildings and cheap hydrogen will all weigh on crude, Thierry Lepercq, head of research, technology and innovation at the French energy company, said in an interview.

Energy ‘tsunamis’ threaten to drag oil down to $10, Engie says

Japan will be the shortest stop, and the easiest. As of May this year, the country has more EV charging stations than it does regular gas stations. Nationwide, there are 40,000 places he could charge up. So it won’t likely be over this part of East Asia that the sleigh starts to sputter and the reindeer have to take over. The charge-up in Japan will have to last a while, because for the rest of Asia it will be touch and go, and however you do the math, there’s no avoiding the harnessing of the reindeer over the rest of the continent. Over Africa, it’s reindeer all the way.

Could Santa’s Sleigh Go Electric? |

With infrastructure in mind, Santa’s first stop state-side might have to be California, where they just unveiled the first EV DC fast-charging station capable of 350 kW output. But the good news is that by next year, Santa might need to rely on reindeer much less, as five major automakers have joined forces to bring into being 400 ultra-fast charging stations for EVs in Europe.

Could Santa’s Sleigh Go Electric? |

Solar power is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. In less than a decade, it’s likely to be the lowest-cost option almost everywhere. In 2016, countries from Chile to the United Arab Emirates broke records with deals to generate electricity from sunshine for less than 3 cents a kilowatt-hour, half the average global cost of coal power. Now, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Mexico are planning auctions and tenders for this year, aiming to drop prices even further. Taking advantage: Companies such as Italy’s Enel SpA and Dublin’s Mainstream Renewable Power, who gained experienced in Europe and now seek new markets abroad as subsidies dry up at home.

Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth - Bloomberg


This narrative made sense, the rise of EVs spearheaded by Tesla, increasingly stringent environmental policies, sluggish global economy and persistently high oil prices finally did oil in, except for a minor fact, none of these stories were true. After the dust settled and the IEA did its tally of oil demand, we notice that no actual collapse in oil demand has taken place, if anything, oil demand growth has accelerated materially since the crisis

The EV Myth – Electric Car Threat To Oil Is Wildly Overstated |

In April 2011, the International Monetary Fund published a 20-year oil price elasticity study, which concluded that a 10 percent increase (or decrease) in oil prices yields a 0.019 percent change in oil consumption over the short term, and 0.072 percent change over the long term.

The EV Myth – Electric Car Threat To Oil Is Wildly Overstated |

According to BP’s long term energy outlook, the introduction of 100m electric cars on the road by 2035 will only reduce global oil demand growth by 1.2 million barrels. This is a miniscule number when applied over the entire forecast period. This is not to mention achieving the 100 million EV cars goal by the 2030s is highly uncertain, with both the U.S. and China reducing and eliminating EV subsidies, the former due to a forthcoming change of policy and the latter due to rampant green subsidy fraud, this goal is ever less certain.

The EV Myth – Electric Car Threat To Oil Is Wildly Overstated |


China, the world's biggest car market, plans to ban the production and sale of diesel and petrol cars and vans. The country's vice industry minister said it had started "relevant research" but that it had not yet decided when the ban would come into force. "Those measures will certainly bring profound changes for our car industry's development," Xin Guobin told Xinhua, China's official news agency China made 28 million cars last year, almost a third of the global total. Both the UK and France have already announced plans to ban new diesel and petrol vehicles by 2040, as part of efforts to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. Chinese-owned carmaker Volvo said in July that all its new car models would have an electric motor from 2019.

China looks at plans to ban petrol and diesel cars - BBC News

Five of the world’s six largest listed oil companies risk wasting more than 30% of possible spending on upstream projects that are high-cost and surplus to supply needs in a 2⁰C world, with Exxon Mobil most exposed, warns a new report by Carbon Tracker produced collaboratively with the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and institutional investors. It is the first report to rank the oil and gas industry company by company and identify where shareholders’ money could be most exposed to the low-carbon transition, and it finds that $2.3 trillion of projects — roughly a third of business-as-usual investment to 2025 – is inconsistent with international objectives to limit climate change to a maximum of 2⁰C and rapid advances in clean technologies reducing demand. 2 Degrees of Separation analyses upstream investment plans of 68 of the largest publicly traded oil companies plus Saudi Aramco up to 2025 and reveals wide variations between companies. Exxon is more exposed to the energy transition than any other oil and gas major with 40% to 50% of capex allocated to uneconomic projects. Shell,Chevron, Total and Eni all have around average exposure, risking 30% to 40% of spending. BP has less, with 20% to 30% at risk.

Five oil majors risking 30% of potential investments on projects ‘unneeded’ in a 2⁰C world | Carbon Tracker Initiative

Top executives for a major U.S. refiner said recently that the company’s future will be in petrochemicals rather than transportation fuels. Independent refiner Phillips 66 argues that while demand for gasoline in the U.S. will grind lower, the need for petrochemicals to make plastics will continue to rise at a rapid clip and become an even greater priority for downstream actors and producers. “The Middle East and U.S. Gulf Coast are going to be the two best places in the world to make petrochemicals, long-term,” said Chief Executive Greg Garland. “In 10 years, if we’re driving the same, we’re going to see less need for transportation fuel. Given that as a backdrop, you don’t want to invest in adding capacity in a declining market.”

The Fuse | Strong Growth in Petchem Demand Alters Long-Term Dynamics in Global Oil Market - The Fuse


Forum Jump:

Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)