09-29-2019, 08:39 AM
Kolanovic did say this some time ago, but it probably still holds:
Quote:“The U.S. economy is facing a quite unique situation in which one individual can disrupt global trade and investment plans of U.S. corporations, tax consumers on a broad range of imports, etc.,” says Kolanovic, we guess talking about President No. 45. “Given all of this — why are we not bearish on equities and the economy? Because this situation can also be undone on short notice and many market segments already price in worst-case outcomes,” writes Kolanovic, who uses mathematical models to price securities. He notes the recent threat of Mexico tariffs that came and went fast. He thinks a U.S.-China trade deal — logical going into an election year — could reverse about half of the market damage seen so far. “This would translate into a quick [approximately] 5% rally in broad markets, and a 10-20% rally in value and high beta. As a strong market and avoiding a recession would boost re-election odds, it would only be rational to expect this outcome,” he said.One big reason you should be in the stock market right now: J.P. Morgan - MarketWatch