The Fed Will Soon Be Done Tightening
nflation is mostly a supply problem, and these problems are difficult to tackle with demand policies but are sorting themselves out. There are few signs that inflation is becoming ingrained […]
The Fed Risks Tanking The Economy
The Fed is embarking on an almost Volcker-style campaign to slain inflation once and for all, but we think they are overdoing it and risk a hard landing. Inflation was […]
The Fed Wasn’t Responsible For Surge In Inflation, But Is Likely To Create Recession
No matter how extravagant monetary policy is, as long as it doesn’t produce a credit boom, it doesn’t increase the money supply and hence inflationary pressures except in asset prices. […]
Inflation At 7%, The 10-Year Treasuries Under 2%, Something’s Got To Give
Huge negative interest rates are not here to stay, inflation is going to come down and yields will rise a bit further. While the next 12 months or so, it […]
QE Is Bad Policy, But Not For The Reasons You Think
QE is blamed for the recent inflationary surge by hard-money doctrines – the same hard-money doctrines that failed spectacularly in the previous decade. QE didn’t produce any inflation in the […]
The Fed Is Irrelevant
With the US 10-year yield well below the Fed Funds rate, there are good arguments for lower interest rates. On the other hand, with rates and unemployment already very low, […]
A Looming Disconnect Between The Economy And Financial Markets
The Fed is mostly focused on conditions in the real economy, loosening policy when growth slows and tightening when the economy grows too hot. It only takes on board financial […]
The Fed Hasn’t Blown Another Asset Bubble
Investors feel whiplashed by the Fed, but while this is understandable, this isn’t necessarily justified as financial markets are a bit of a side show for the Fed. The Fed […]
The Fed’s America First Policy
It is difficult to argue that monetary policy is too tight for the US economy, and financial data back that judgement up. However, the Fed often has a pronounced influence […]
Fed Hysteria Out In Full Force Once Again
From the President downwards, much of the financial community is up in arms over the latest Fed policy change. While the Fed in general, or the particular policy changes and […]