Why A 1970s Style Stagflation Is Unlikely
A US recession is becoming ever more likely in the face of demand destruction from multiple sources (policy, real wages, stock market, consumer sentiment, etc.). However, this is likely to […]
A Recession Is Looming
It seems reasonable to assume that the coronavirus outbreak is morphing into a global pandemic and that the US will not be spared from community spreading. This will compound the […]
Sensible European Populism
The economic and political situation in Europe is deteriorating pretty alarmingly, stocks are close to, or already in a bear market. Economically, there is the threat of a return of […]
Better Globalization
The US economy has created as much wealth as any advanced economy, if not more so, but many have been left out of this wealth creation altogether. Trade has been […]
The Bull Market Can Run For Years
We might have been too pessimistic about the impact of the tax cuts on the economy. New data about business investment and productivity growth paint a better picture; even if […]
Risks Are Increasing
Market risks are increasing with a more assertive President, less constrained by mainstream advisers repositioning into a more populist and neo-conservative direction. The more immediate worry are the chances of […]
Booming World Economy Is Facing Constraints
The world economy is booming, which is good for corporate earnings. Equity valuations should be able to handle a modicum of higher interest rates. But capacity constraints and labor shortages […]
Why Business Investment Isn’t Booming
The best way to grow the economy, and thereby top line growth and increase competitiveness is to stimulate business investment. Business investment has been sub-par for a while, despite record […]
It’s The Economy, Stupid!
Globalization and other forces of structural change do not necessarily have to ravage economies. An interesting example is that of the German Mittelstand small and medium sized industrial companies which […]
PIMCO: 5 key policy areas will test markets over the next 5 years
Pimco analysts Richard Clarida, Andrew Balls, and Daniel Ivascyn cite “insecure stability” as a key factor that will affect policy decisions around the world. “Over our five-year secular horizon we […]