Inflation At 7%, The 10-Year Treasuries Under 2%, Something’s Got To Give
Huge negative interest rates are not here to stay, inflation is going to come down and yields will rise a bit further. While the next 12 months or so, it […]
The Markets Are Running On Hopium
Markets have latched onto slivers of positive news about booster protection and Omicron producing less severe outcomes. But the supporting data is thin and/or premature, while the data on the […]
Why We’re Not Convinced By JPMorgan’s Kolanovic’s Buy The Dip Argument
Famed JPMorgan stock guru Kolanovic argues that we should buy the dip because the new Omicron variant is likely to accelerate the end of the pandemic. This hinges on some […]
Headwinds Could Turn Into A Storm
A much more contagious variant can wreak havoc in no time even in countries with high vaccination rates, as the Dutch and British experience shows. Most of the vulnerable people […]
Bulls Vs. Bears, What Data To Watch Out For
There is a sharp division between bulls and bears. The first argue the markets have already seen the lows, and the latter argue much worse is to come. They look […]
Investing In A Minefield
Things are getting to get worse, likely to be a lot worse. The U.S. is now passed the containment phase. The next phase is limiting the spread which necessitates much […]
Stress In The Financial System
With the exception of US bank balance sheets, the financial system is all that much more robust than it was at the outset of the financial crisis, in our view. […]
Unanswered Coronavirus Questions, Now Is Not The Time For Heroics
The good news is that the situation in China is improving albeit at exorbitant economic cost, and the virus spreads mostly through family. However, experiences from South Korea show that […]
Misplaced Market Euphoria
There is still a lot we don’t know about the spread of the coronavirus, and with that, the economic impact of the measures aimed to contain it. With large parts […]
Reasons For Cautious Optimism
Many shares are already down 40%-50% off their (arguably lofty) highs in short order. We see reasons for Fed moderation, a possibility for a trade truce between the US and […]