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+--- Thread: one more squeeze ? (/showthread.php?tid=1633)
RE: one more squeeze ? - Palm - 09-20-2012
Getting whacked by overall oil selloff too I think. Must be time to rotate out of oil for a while and having "oil" in our name carries a price. Markets are getting toppy here; surprised VIX is staying low. But with free money for the foreseeable future and the Fed saying take the money and invest, it'll be interesting to see if we get much of a correction here in the markets. I see one coming and really lightened up the equity funds in my 401K this AM. It's non-IOC so betting on market correction to then catch next leg up.
RE: one more squeeze ? - Petrovale - 09-20-2012
big fat chavez pig formation
the options rule
RE: one more squeeze ? - jft310 - 09-20-2012
Way more longs coming. The shorts only have so much ammo. New stocj coverage to driveus higher. WE bought the dip.
RE: one more squeeze ? - CesiumFormate - 09-20-2012
'jft310' pid='10063' dateline='<a href="tel:1348085 Wrote:Way more longs coming. The shorts only have so much ammo. New stocj coverage to driveus higher. WE bought the dip.
Ken,
Could it be that the shorts are actually bullish? If one really believes it is going to happen in the next 60 days one could sell short and buy leveraged calls and leverage them 8 to15 times depending how far out they want to spread them.
It also surprises me a bit that they can borrow these shares when I know of one account that Schwab returned about 30,000 shares recently due to lack of borrowing demand.
I believe this truly is a tightly wound spring, and if the hedge funds are playing this way, they could soon be winners.
CF
RE: one more squeeze ? - TxPm - 09-20-2012
Cesium,
If you take a look at the options Markey I believe you can find some evidence Of what your discussing. There are way more OTM calls then Puts which in my opinion are being used by the shorts to profit should this thing Pop.
RE: one more squeeze ? - Orlando - 09-20-2012
In case anyone is wondering whether or not a large percentage of the shorts could be held by the convertible note holders, not so with IOC. It is not unusual for holders of convertibles of any company to short the common so they have a risk-free coupon. If the stock goes way up, they can always convert to cover the short position. If the stock goes to zero, they already sold short.
According to note 26 of the 2011 consolidated financial statement, the $70,000,000 in convertible notes can be converted for 10.4575 shares of common for each $1,000 in notes. The conversion price is $95.625 per share. If all the convertible notes were converted, there would be a total of 732,025 shares issued. That is less than 10% of the most recently published short position. I have no idea if the convertible holders are short or not, but even if they are, there are over 90% of the other shorts that will have to find some other way to cover.
Some shorts may be hedged with long calls, but it sure seems like this is really going to end ugly for either some shorts or some option traders or both. If the shorts own a ton of calls, then the option market makers will have to buy the shares from someone. I remember a conversation I once had with a former options trader on the CBOE. He said there were occasions where a stock moved so dramatically on them, that it "left a mark". I have to believe that IOC is going to "leave a mark" on one or more institutions somewhere pretty soon. In terms of the old board game, Clue, I say it is Colonel Phil, with the sell down, in the board room.
RE: one more squeeze ? - TxPm - 09-20-2012
That is essentially what happened with the VW spike..I'd be willing to bet that the MM of those 28,000 Sept 100's doesn't have anywhere near that many shares which is why they will do everything in their power to keep the stock below $100. I'd be willing to bet that whoever was the MM on those calls was shorting IOC like crazy last Week
RE: one more squeeze ? - Bincbanker - 09-21-2012
Why did the PPS remain steady with a 177 K spike ? it was executed with out a ripple
RE: one more squeeze ? - calaban48 - 09-21-2012
'Bincbanker' pid='10130' datel Wrote:Why did the PPS remain steady with a 177 K spike ? it was executed with out a ripple
Asked a broker and was told the 177k could have been a transfer between accounts which, rules say, have to be done through the market. That was his best guess.
RE: one more squeeze ? - trans - 09-21-2012
Hmmm......Perhaps that's the way these crooks now can "manage prices", especially near option expirations....I've figured they trade in some sort of circle, and use off exchanges....