'ArtM72' pid='10158' datel Wrote:The FED is saying to the banks if you don't lend money we will. The banks should be approaching the end of their recapitalization following their over-leveraging in the 2000s. I seem to recall predictions of around four years ago it would take about this long. Unfortunately the world of Basel is completely foreign to me, but I believe the recent early strength in the housing market bodes well for the necessary demand to keep the economy moving forward. As they say, take your chances and place your bets. Oh yeah. Then you have the "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year. Hopefully Thelma and Louise aren't driving.

Agree Art.  I have a bank loan model I follow closely.  The trend of bank loans (u.s.) optimized vs. M-2 money growth trend has been doing noticeably better than overall money growth since the end of 2nd qtr.   This leads me to believe the economy is starting to get more help from the bank loan area than the historical trend it usually follows.  I also point to more than 5 year highs being achieved in the homebuilding sector even though those stocks are somewhat extended here short term .  This is usually a longer term bullish trend change that I do not ignore, and is usually the precursor to above average performance from that sector on a longer term basis.   I view both bank loans and the homebuilding sector as most likely plusses ahead instead of negative influences

'admin' pid='10189' datel Wrote:http://seekingalpha.com/article/881521-u-s-embarking-on-a-new-secular-bull-market

Great article, admin.  One minor feedback item:  in the last sentence, did you mean "secular" rather than "cyclical"/

"Believe it or not, Art, I think there is a reasonable chance for a new cyclical bull market in the US (writing an article about that as we speak). But we first have to get passed that fiscal cliff, which is a bit of a cliff hanger.. "

STP, you are not the only one.  I  tried to attached a PDF from Fidelity showing a blueprint for the next bull market cycle in US equities (but it was too large).  Next 12 to 18 months of sideways depending upon the fiscal cliff and elections, then thing turn very positive.

'Getitrt2' pid='10192' datel Wrote:

'admin' pid='10189' datel Wrote:http://seekingalpha.com/article/881521-u-s-embarking-on-a-new-secular-bull-market

Great article, admin.  One minor feedback item:  in the last sentence, did you mean "secular" rather than "cyclical"/

Thanks, yea. Non native speaker stuff..

'Gator' pid='10193' datel Wrote:

"Believe it or not, Art, I think there is a reasonable chance for a new cyclical bull market in the US (writing an article about that as we speak). But we first have to get passed that fiscal cliff, which is a bit of a cliff hanger.. "

STP, you are not the only one.  I  tried to attached a PDF from Fidelity showing a blueprint for the next bull market cycle in US equities (but it was too large).  Next 12 to 18 months of sideways depending upon the fiscal cliff and elections, then thing turn very positive.

Thanks for the pdf, gator, leafing through it it looks quite familiar. I guess there are only so many arguments to build a case for a secular bull market on..