'Movieguy' pid='36511' datel Wrote:

The purpose of this poll is to see what members believe is the price that an Interoil takeover could succeed in Interoil no longer being independent.  Perhaps this question is the same as, "At what price do you think the major shareholders of Interoil would elect to sell their stock?"  Remember, this is not about your preference, but simply the price that would succeed, meaning the majority of shareholders elect to sell their shares.  Please vote based on the right price NOW and not in two months or whenever, and not after whatever events you expect to transpire in the future transpire.  We can do polls in the future to assess the opinions at that time.  However, feel free to comment along those lines.  Thanks.

If this were a deal for "Now", which is before any drilling, before any IPI settlement, etc., likely any offer coming would be tops at a 70% premium, which means $88.  Only two voters are even in that top dollar "hope" as far as reality.  To think that an offer would even come in anywhere near the most popular choice NOW is really pie-in-the sky.  But I think some really may feel there's hope for something like that NOW.  Then there's the other side of the coin that many probably don't realize:

"In 2012, shareholders challenged 93 percent of merger and acquisition (M&A) deals valued over $100 million and 96 percent of transactions valued over $500 million.

Most cases settled, and in more than 80 percent of settlements the only relief to shareholders was additional disclosures. "

The largest shareholders know what a reasonable "NOW" offer would come in at.  So say even a $100 offer came in and Chandler and other bigs just wanted out, and the BOD accepted.  There would be lawsuits galore where only the attorneys win.  So if a realistic offer (back to the $88) were to come, likely it would be turned down.  Then we're back to letting the deals play out and the values increasing; even if one waits until Certification.  But to expect the absoluet unrealistic "NOW" sets oneself up for more disappointment.  The worst thing that could happen NOW is a buyout offer; it would only disappoint and give one another reason to curse management.

Lets let things happen

'Palm' pid='36709' datel Wrote:So what's it worth today if not $52? If it's worth $150, $200 or $500 today why hasn't an offer been made at $100? Even by Total? So we're to believe that shorts and other market "forces" are holding it here and have even the SMs baffled or thinking that if they offer $85, it'll go to $200 in a heartbeat? We heard that as soon as a deal was struck would be the time. Then when IPI is settled. Then when the deal closes. No. We know the answer. The resource must be further developed for real value to be there. That's a ways off. NOW it's not worth $200.

Palm,I  don't disagree but Movie's question was "at what price would an offer succeed?"  I disagreed with some here that a deal was imminent and its clear that XOM saw no urgency in overpaying.  u, the question is at what price would a deal be successful.  That doesn't necessarily mean the price that makes everyone happy or best relfects the resource value.  I agree $88 would not cut it.  But I think in the $125 -$150 range enought of the "bigs" would capitulate and sell. As you point out, its not worth $200 NOW.  The stock may never get to $200 EVER because of how events have unfolded, but its certainly worth a lot more than where its trading.  I see no harm in a poll asking an opinion of what someone would think it would take to successfully bid for and get the company, whether or not it might transpite. More grandiose things have been imagined here in the past, or is that considered looking backwards.  The best path to value realization is the drilliing program but one has to wonder if IOC will suffer from a perpetual market discount.  TIme will tel.  Th IPI resolution and how its communicated and the sequence of the news from the wells will tell us a lot in the near term (3-6 months).

OK.  I took it at face value.  I don't expect $125-$150 but that is what it would take IMO.  I don't think $100 would do it, but again IMO.  The company is worth at a minimum $80 (very rough calculation) based on the face value of the TOT deal and excludes a lot of other parts.  I don't think anyone would use the $50 price to calculate the real premium.  I think the TOT deal is the floor, but then again it sure looks like a celing from here.  I think a 25 to 50% premium to the TOT deal of $0.80 gross would be more apropriate but I don't necessarily think that's coming either.  Credibility will be the key and how they navigate the deal closing and first couple of wells will determine how much credit they get and real interest from additional partners.  But I wholeheartedly agree on the realism angle.

'Movieguy' pid='37729' datel Wrote:Seems this thread may have become quite relevant. I stick with my vote of $125 - 150 ($140 if we get specific), but I'd be happy to seem higher and such a case is very reasonable.

Based on the results of the input on this thread apparently the shorts are winning this game.  They've beaten down the optimism of so many here regarding the value of the assets we have to significantly lower levels compared to where everyone was at just a couple years ago when so much less was known or had been accomplished.  Time has caused people to get anxious and at the same time lose their sense of what portends for the untapped property at our disposal.   I think a thread like this does more harm than good.   Would you show your cards earlt at the poker table too?

mark

'Dmarque' pid='37733' datel Wrote:

'Movieguy' pid='37729' datel Wrote:Seems this thread may have become quite relevant. I stick with my vote of $125 - 150 ($140 if we get specific), but I'd be happy to seem higher and such a case is very reasonable.

Based on the results of the input on this thread apparently the shorts are winning this game.  They've beaten down the optimism of so many here regarding the value of the assets we have to significantly lower levels compared to where everyone was at just a couple years ago when so much less was known or had been accomplished.  Time has caused people to get anxious and at the same time lose their sense of what portends for the untapped property at our disposal.   I think a thread like this does more harm than good.   Would you show your cards earlt at the poker table too?

mark

It's called reality.  I think $85 is not a real number.  However the days of the stock being worth $500+ if we just wait it out are long gone.  A realistic price at some premium to the TOT deal would get it done and that's well below $200.  Many might not like that but its where its at.  I personally don't think they  ges taken out, another long term myth that will go by the wayside,  and the PPS  willl rise and fall with drililng results until we get more calirty around resource certification.  I have no problem with the poll to guage what holders are thinking and feel the paranoia around manipulation continues to be overdone.  The company and management, past and present, have been their own worst enemy in this regard.  An $85 take-out would be like Patton getting shot in the middle of the street....