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+--- Thread: The NG Estimates (/showthread.php?tid=7068)
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RE: The NG Estimates - Putncalls - 07-14-2014
Thanks Sam,
Sorry about the next question but I can't help it. Any opinions as to how long before any info comes out on that? Maybe the well watching is providing some clarity to some, as to the extent of these HCs.
RE: The NG Estimates - SamAdams - 07-14-2014
Excellent question Puts. I don't have the answer on timing. I will see what I can find out.
RE: The NG Estimates - jft310 - 07-14-2014
The company has stated mid 2015 for certification. Depends on the drill bit.
To be clear total and Interoil will agree on a third reservoir engineering firm amongst the 5 bankable names .
RE: The NG Estimates - Getitrt2 - 07-15-2014
I don't think it's a matter of the "market", whatever that is, deciding GCA and its estimates are the "best", but rather just a matter of using or reflecting the more conservative. I'm not sure about this, but I believe GLJ is actually the more current estimates now. GLJ has analyzed and incorporated Antelope 3 into its estimates, which not only confirmed their previous estimates but resulted in some increase in them.
The analysts who cover the stock incorporate both into their estimates one way or another. RJ calculates NAV with both, but leans toward the GLJ. Macquarie uses the more conservative GCA for their initial official stock price target and NAV, but presents a table with example estimates ranging all the way from 3.0 to 12.0 Tcf. At the same time, Macquarie also states, "A combination of exploration and appraisal success, project de-risking, and model roll-forward could see our NAV rise to >U$200/sh BY MID-2016." I think there is an inclination on the part of most analysts to start out with what they see as conservative targets and be able to raise them later, especially in light of past history, which I don't see as very relevant now.
Perhaps more importantly, based on what I hear, management believes there is substantial upside to Antelope and PRL 15 estimates.