(06-02-2016, 07:57 AM)kerekesc Wrote:

(06-02-2016, 03:20 AM)Palm Wrote:

Spartina dateline='<a href="tel:1464799659">1464799659</a>' Wrote: What a shame, it looks like things might be finally changing again in the O&G industry...Timing is everything.

Changing but how? certainly not back to boom times anytime soon IMO. Being in the energy business things are changing very rapidly.  Customers by the end of this year or early 2017 will have 30% of their base-load generation from wind within the State, and the newest piece will be at lower cost than coal-based generation.  That will not be through RECs, but in-state projects.  This is FAR ahead of some of the most agressive expectations.

O&G execs see these trends and others and were being advised late last year to change models.  Expectations are for much more in the way of M&A activity.  Times have changed.

I am not in the energy business, but I have seen some wind-generation fields in Europe and the United States.  So, I would be very interested to know which State/States will provide 30% of their base-load generation from wind power by early 2017?

These "fields" exist because of subsidies. The subsidies exist because of misinformation. If it was a capital only decision they wouldn't exist. Politics is fickle.

'kerekesc' pid='71274' datel Wrote:

I am not in the energy business, but I have seen some wind-generation fields in Europe and the United States.  So, I would be very interested to know which State/States will provide 30% of their base-load generation from wind power by early 2017?

According to the American Wind Energy Association in 2015 Texas wind farms generated 9.98% of the state's electrical power with 30% more MWs under construction. That's the #1 state by capacity.  But it is IOWA that uses windturbines to generate 31.2% of its in-state electrical usage. Impressive but still not a replacement for hydrocarbon fuels, and quite capital intensive. http://www.awea.org/resources/statefactsheets.aspx?itemnumber=890

'Palm' pid='71277' datel Wrote:Electric cooperatives in the State of Michigan.

Sorry, I must have misunderstood your post.  Its not a State which will get 30% of its power generation from wind, rather a small rural community or two .

'Putncalls' pid='71280' datel Wrote:

These "fields" exist because of subsidies. The subsidies exist because of misinformation. If it was a capital only decision they wouldn't exist. Politics is fickle.

These fields exist because of subsidies just like fracking exists because of Federal subsidies beginning in the Carter administration and continuing through Reagan, Bush etc. Not only research subsidies but subsidies given to provide supplemental support pricing for non conventional oil and gas.

Interestingly,

"Texas established a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in 1999, amending it in 2005. The current RPS requires 5,880 MW of renewable energy by 2015. The state also has a target of reaching 10,000 MW of renewable capacity by 2025, a target that the wind energy industry met in 2010." Texas had 17,700 MW of capacity installed in 2015 with another 5,400 MW under construction.  http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/FileDownloads/pdfs/Texas.pdf

Does that change your opinion any?

'kerekesc' pid='71282' dateline='<a href="tel:1464821 Wrote:

'Palm' pid='71277' dateline='<a href="tel:1464820 Wrote:Electric cooperatives in the State of Michigan.

Sorry, I must have misunderstood your post.  Its not a State which will get 30% of its power generation from wind, rather a small rural community or two .

It's much more than a small territory or two. It's communities and businesses throught the State and the fact is it's happened much more quickly and cost effectively than expected. It's not going to replace all fossil fuels, but it is altering the face of energy going into future generations.

'admin' pid='71237' datel Wrote:

'Palm' pid='71236' datel Wrote:If this deal falls apart I fear that the "highest bidders" will indeed pluck the pieces, but at great discounts. With the state of the industry and as UncleT mentions, IOC's current state (cash-strapped which didn't just happen recently, likley credit-tapped, etc., etc.) I fear that black vultures are more likely than white knights. I Do hope I'm wrong and I don't like what MH and the BOD has done, but it's cold-hard business for this industry not much unlike the real estate industry of the not-too-distant past. Location, location, location meant nada. I also would like to hear very realistic plans/reasoning for 100% (or even very high) valuations being obtained for piece-mealing IOC's assets, and who would be able to do it in quick manner. Total has made its decision and communicated it loud and clear. Hopefully someone else will step up, but the time that has passed without a peep speaks volumes.

I see that point, Palm, but much of it really depends on the outcome of the certification, which makes this thing so frustrating to judge, IMHO.

What I'm trying to do is to look at the situation in a business like manner, unstimulated by the contagious outrage toward Hession which has swept over the board.   One business question is what course of action, dealing with the situation as it is today, would position shareholders like myself to benefit, with some degree of safety,  from the recovery in the oil and gas business I believe has started.  Oil Search, if the deal goes through, will be in an enviable position, IMO.

'Putncalls' pid='71288' datel Wrote:Yep it's changing and Fracking is in the driver's seat. Fracking was developed from the grass roots despite political push back. Fracking makes wind mills and solar farms into modern tulip bulbs. The windmill dotted skyline of Iowa is ugly! This fickle behavior will only last until the prosperity from US energy independence becomes evident. One little combined cycle NG turbine replaces a 100s and 100s of wind mills with cheap pollution free power 24/7 for a third of the windmill cost. Solar costs a lot more and is even less reliable.

YOu make the assumption greenhouse gas emissions have no economic cost.  Check with those people in Texas where they have had two 500 year frequency storms in the past year alone. Or those subject to drought, abnormally high temperatures and wildfires.  Extreme weather events has been a predicted characteristic of global climate change.

Fracking was not developed at the grass roots.  It was a public/private partnership. Expand your sources of information and accept the idea that only if you allow new information to engage, challenge and at times change your opinions those opinions are going to be closer to the truth. I'm not saying you are wrong, only that there is always more information with wihich to judge and improve upon you opinions.