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+--- Thread: Mkt Cap Recert Pmt Disconnect ?? (/showthread.php?tid=9630)
Mkt Cap Recert Pmt Disconnect ?? - Tree - 01-25-2016
..."Reserves certification will determine how much Total will ultimately pay to earn into the project from InterOil, with the payment expected this year.
InterOil ultimately stands to collect up to $3 billion.
On a base volume of 7.1Tcfe, the certification payment InterOil will receive from Total will be nearly $US600 million ($A857 million), plus an additional $517 million at the final investment decision.
For every Tcfe above 7.1Tcfe, InterOil will receive an additional $400 million plus $65 million for every Tcfe above the first Tcfe found in the Antelope South prospect."...
IOC trades @ $1.3 B mkt cap (after a 30% climb last week). Anyone really expect a $3 B resource payment? Doesn't mkt cap imply base case re-cert at best.
RE: Mkt Cap Recert Pmt Disconnect ?? - jft310 - 01-25-2016
Actually the current market cap implies
No payment this year
No FID
No oil price recovery
No LNG plant
No takeover ever
GCA doesn't raise their 7 T extimate in spite of the success last year .
Remember markets over shoot both ways . That's what Goldman and Credit Suisse told us last week. Both used very conservative estimates . Never forget these are both Investment Banks that get paid to do deals . One of the reasons the estimates are low is because they hope to attract a buyer of Interoil .
If one thinks Interoil will certify 10 T area . With a payment this year on those assets then one should have bought last week and now . The path is not straight up .
RE: Mkt Cap Recert Pmt Disconnect ?? - Getitrt2 - 01-26-2016
'Tree' pid='66209' datel Wrote:..."Reserves certification will determine how much Total will ultimately pay to earn into the project from InterOil, with the payment expected this year.
InterOil ultimately stands to collect up to $3 billion.
On a base volume of 7.1Tcfe, the certification payment InterOil will receive from Total will be nearly $US600 million ($A857 million), plus an additional $517 million at the final investment decision.
For every Tcfe above 7.1Tcfe, InterOil will receive an additional $400 million plus $65 million for every Tcfe above the first Tcfe found in the Antelope South prospect."...
IOC trades @ $1.3 B mkt cap (after a 30% climb last week). Anyone really expect a $3 B resource payment? Doesn't mkt cap imply base case re-cert at best.
No, not really. It reflects extremely low oil prices, a great deal of uncertainty, and very negative sentiment and market cash outflows overall, and perhaps also conservative analyst assumptions pending more complete and definitive information.