Mkt Cap Recert Pmt Disconnect ??

[Tree]

..."Reserves certification will determine how much Total will ultimately pay to earn into the project from InterOil, with the payment expected this year.

InterOil ultimately stands to collect up to $3 billion.

On a base volume of 7.1Tcfe, the certification payment InterOil will receive from Total will be nearly $US600 million ($A857 million), plus an additional $517 million at the final investment decision.

For every Tcfe above 7.1Tcfe, InterOil will receive an additional $400 million plus $65 million for every Tcfe above the first Tcfe found in the Antelope South prospect."...

IOC trades @ $1.3 B mkt cap (after a 30% climb last week).  Anyone really expect a $3 B resource payment?  Doesn't mkt cap imply base case re-cert at best.

[jft310]

Actually the current market cap implies
No payment this year
No FID
No oil price recovery
No LNG plant
No takeover ever
GCA doesn't raise their 7 T extimate in spite of the success last year .
Remember markets over shoot both ways . That's what Goldman and Credit Suisse told us last week. Both used very conservative estimates . Never forget these are both Investment Banks that get paid to do deals . One of the reasons the estimates are low is because they hope to attract a buyer of Interoil .
If one thinks Interoil will certify 10 T area . With a payment this year on those assets then one should have bought last week and now . The path is not straight up .

[Getitrt2]

..."Reserves certification will determine how much Total will ultimately pay to earn into the project from InterOil, with the payment expected this year.

InterOil ultimately stands to collect up to $3 billion.

On a base volume of 7.1Tcfe, the certification payment InterOil will receive from Total will be nearly $US600 million ($A857 million), plus an additional $517 million at the final investment decision.

For every Tcfe above 7.1Tcfe, InterOil will receive an additional $400 million plus $65 million for every Tcfe above the first Tcfe found in the Antelope South prospect."...

IOC trades @ $1.3 B mkt cap (after a 30% climb last week).  Anyone really expect a $3 B resource payment?  Doesn't mkt cap imply base case re-cert at best.