The coming solar singularity

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Renewable energy could surpass coal, nuclear power, and natural gas as the world’s largest source of electricity within only 15 years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. The report was published to provide a backdrop to the current state of affairs in energy markets ahead of the international climate negotiations set to take place in Paris in December. The IEA noted that economic growth is starting to “decouple” from energy – global GDP expanded by 3 percent in 2014 but emissions stayed flat.

Renewable Energy Could Dominate Electricity Market In 15 Years | OilPrice.com

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Global PV Demand Outlook 2015-2020: Exploring Risk in Downstream Solar Markets

The cumulative global market for solar PV is expected to triple by 2020 to almost 700 gigawatts, with annual demand eclipsing 100 gigawatts in 2019. Solar demand will likely be almost entirely market-based in 2020; a dramatic shift from 2012 when almost all demand was premised on direct incentives. One implication of an increasingly unsubsidized market is that management and governance of the electric grid will change dramatically, creating both new opportunities and challenges for solar companies. This transformation is already underway with the implementation of market-based mechanisms for PV procurement and solar companies exploring innovations in business model design.

FIGURE: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand (GWdc), 2002 - 2020E

*Click image to see larger

Source: GTM Research

This slide-based report explores the high-level trends, drivers, and risks shaping global PV demand out to 2020. It includes forecasts and risk assessments for major markets, analysis of regional and emerging markets, alternative scenarios for global demand, and distillation of key themes such as unsubsidized market development, business model and financial innovation, and the regulatory transformations for the electric grid.

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Around three-quarters of US coal production is now more expensive than solar and wind energy in providing electricity to American households, according to a new study. “Even without major policy shift we will continue to see coal retire pretty rapidly,” said Mike O’Boyle, the co-author of the report for Energy Innovation, a renewables analysis firm. “Our analysis shows that we can move a lot faster to replace coal with wind and solar. The fact that so much coal could be retired right now shows we are off the pace.”

The study’s authors used public financial filings and data from the EnergyInformation Agency (EIA) to work out the cost of energy from coal plants compared with wind and solar options within a 35-mile radius. They found that 211 gigawatts of current US coal capacity, 74% of the coal fleet, is providing electricity that’s more expensive than wind or solar..

'Coal is on the way out': study finds fossil fuel now pricier than solar or wind | Environment | The Guardian