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Last time I read a Whitney Tilson article about a great short was when Netflix was around 200 dollars a share. It made great sense and I followed him in the stock as a short. Since then the CEO of Netflix, Reed Hastings, wrote an SA article that lamented as to why Whitney Tilson was wrong about Netflix. Unfortunately that trade of mine did not end up being a winner. Tilson reversed position on Netflix and went long. I actually respect that he admitted that he was wrong.
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So what say you on his position on IOC?
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'Palm' pid='33789' datel Wrote:I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years." So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.
The guy complains about anonymous message board trolls, then cites anonymous research as the basis for his conclusion, all the while ignoring no less than three independent resource evaluations which directly contradict his conclusions.
Enough said..
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'admin' pid='33793' datel Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33789' datel Wrote:I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years." So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.
The guy complains about anonymous message board trolls, then cites anonymous research as the basis for his conclusion, all the while ignoring no less than three independent resource evaluations which directly contradict his conclusions.
Enough said..
Whitney Tilson! One of the short sale people we have discussed many times! I think the short sale person commenting on Shareholders Unite article yesterday is Whitney Tilson! He said he was going to write an article and here it is with similar numbers! I talked to my friend and he thinks IOC is a great deal. He thinks Total was nervous about puttting many billions estimate out there and GLJ has proved the reserves! What a bargain! Boo on Whitney Tilson!
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'Palm' pid='33789' datel Wrote:I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years." So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.
Palm, you treat Tilson quite gently in your critique. You might have made somethinhg of his "guess" as to the set of probabilities which Total might have ascribed to different volume levels. You might also have noted that he, Tilson, an undergraduate major in government with an MBA, then gave his own probabilities of different volume levels. I don´t think it is desperation as much as it is a driving need to convince everyone...most importantly himself.....that he is RIGHT! My own guess...which by Tilson´s rules I am entitled to make without particular training.....is that Mr Tilson is a frightfully insecure person. Read his wiki bio. He may be the only living person to have given the name of his nursery school, and his participation at such an age in a psychological experiment, as important background information. While some here would like to see him in jail, I think he, investors, and taxpayers would all be better-served by his spending a lot of time with a therapist.
katytrader
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Katy,
Ha! Well I guess I'm too nice a guy or something. While I fiugure that out people may want to view this presentation WT gave at Harvard last week on shorting stocks. Admits he's been hammered the last few years on many of his short positions, and 2013 has been brutal. But he still believes in the shorts he has. ??? On slide 16 of this presentation he lists IOC among 4 examples of "Bubbles, Frauds, Promotions". Obviously he will not give in until at least one of IOC's prospects is proven in a significant way to be a commercial find. That could be tougher and tougher as this moves along. Hard to believe Total will spend $613 million just as a hedge, and that if things proceed as planned would agree to put more of the cash in during the time leading up to FID. Hession has explained why that should be seen as a very positive thing by shareholders and the market. Here's the link to his presentation:
http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-t...2013-12#-1
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'katytrader' pid='33797' datel Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33789' datel Wrote:I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years." So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.
Palm, you treat Tilson quite gently in your critique. You might have made somethinhg of his "guess" as to the set of probabilities which Total might have ascribed to different volume levels. You might also have noted that he, Tilson, an undergraduate major in government with an MBA, then gave his own probabilities of different volume levels. I don´t think it is desperation as much as it is a driving need to convince everyone...most importantly himself.....that he is RIGHT! My own guess...which by Tilson´s rules I am entitled to make without particular training.....is that Mr Tilson is a frightfully insecure person. Read his wiki bio. He may be the only living person to have given the name of his nursery school, and his participation at such an age in a psychological experiment, as important background information. While some here would like to see him in jail, I think he, investors, and taxpayers would all be better-served by his spending a lot of time with a therapist.
katytrader
Also from Wiki....
When Google had it's IPO in 2004, Tilson famously said in 2004 Motley Fool article, "Google with the same market cap of McDonald's (a stock I own)?! HA! I believe that it is virtually certain that Google's stock will be highly disappointing to investors foolish enough to participate in its overhyped offering -- you can hold me to that." [7] Note: Since then (as of 10/18/13) Google has gone on to give it's investors over a 1050% return.
L Ron Rules!
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C'mon croozer; he can miss one can't he?
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A route to influence in the financial media is standing up in front of the world and making dogmatic statements about stocks one doesn't really understand very well. Cramer is the best example. Many private investors want somebody to tell them what to do.
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'Palm' pid='33801' datel Wrote:C'mon croozer; he can miss one can't he?
Well, by his own statements he can say and do whatever he wants! That presentation was interesting, but not for me the 60% of the slides depicting Lumber Liquidators as an embodiment of evil, among lesser things. Note the disclaimer to the presentation: he writes that he "may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this presentation" and he "makes no warranties as to accuracy or completeness..." So why would anyone believe anything in his presentation without verifying for oneself? To me, this kind of language is more than boilerplate; it is a conscious effort to relieve any guilt that he might have for intentional misrepresentations. But, hey, I´m not a therapist, although I am entitled to opinions about a person´s mental health......just as WT can give opinions about the probability of having X tcfe of gas in E-A.
katytrader
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