Win/Win & Win/Win

[SamAdams]

Just keepin' it real but the stock has been in a well defined down channel since May '13,  with the big spike outside that channel in Nov '13 followed by the break below that in Dec of that year and then a break below it in early '15.  There has been a recent correlation with oil's drop but this trend had been solidly in place despite all the positive news.  Perhaps JFT is right about cash as the catalyst but a lot of SHU members dont' fully realize the damage done to the "stock" vs the company over the years.  CAC might not be far off in his comments that it may take more than cash payments to send the stock higher, meaning FID, shovels in the ground etc.  Not sure drilling will do it as we found out in '14.  A major sell side firm thought arbitration clarity and A4 and A5 data might start the recovery process in the share price but that hasn't worked either.  Keep the faith but be realistic in what the stock is ultimately worth.   Remember, great stories do not always make great stocks.

[kommonsents]

After following this stock and company for over six years, it seems to me that the behavior of the stock is different than it was before the famous December '13 fall off the cliff.

Before that date, it seems that the "shorts" could have "their way" with the stock whenever they chose, usually timing their attacks with news, good and bad, it didn't seem to matter.

When new buying came into the stock, they seemed to bide their time and then short again, hence we had short-lived spikes.

There also seemed to be another force behind putting a lid on the pps, almost the same as now, just enough to temper any enthusium driving the pps up.

With the short interest dropping to more normal levels, if there is such a thing, the question is, what is the force(s) putting the lid on the pps of IOC?

If the "shorts" have mostly packed up and left town, why put a lid on the pps?

The only logical explanation I can come up with is that some entity wants to discourage all investors, large and small, to set them up for a "cheap" buy-out.

A buy-out has been always been a high probability for a long time, especially since the resources have been more or less, proven up. Of course, IOC is still in the process of proving up the amount of resources at E/A as well as at the other areas currently under the drill bit and scheduled.

Others here, some more knowledgeable than me on oil & gas exploration as well as the way markets work and are manipulated, have indicated that the the Big Guys don't want to make an offer to buy out IOC to avoid a bidding war that would drive the PPS up, up and away. Perhaps that is true.

Another possibility is that a Super Major is keeping a lid on the PPS of IOC to kinda keep it in their back pocket and within reach, as well as to wear the shareholders down. I think this is where we are today.

A stock like IOC is fairly easy to manipulate because of the quite small float and its history. It has burned a lot of investors/speculators. There is no question it is and has been a speculative stock. It's balance sheet nor its earnings can support the pps. So, it is perceived value that supports the pps.

The stock is no longer the same stock it was 14~ months ago. Some of its resources have been monetized and then challenged and now the challenge is defeated. IOC is on a pretty solid path towards being transformed into a revenue generating company with a lot of potential for increasing its resources via the drill bit. I look forward to the day when its resources have been fully developed.

However, a buy-out still looms on the horizon. All the elements are there. I believe that the now-confirmed presence of Total creates a problem for another SM to swoop in and steal the resources of IOC. And that is the crux of the matter of IOC's future today, at least as I perceive it.

There has been a lot of criticism of MH here on SHU ever since the drop in pps of 12-13. While some of it may be deserved, he really has no control over the pps. We can't collectively on one hand criticize PM for his pie-in-the-sky projections that helped drive the pps some time ago and actually assisted the "shorts" in shorting at higher prices, and on the other hand, criticize MH for clamping down on the leaks and information in order to reduce the volitility and discourage those trying to manipulate the pps.

MH has put his head down and concentrated on the tasks at hand which is to monetize the assets and resources of IOC and he is making good progress, IMHO.

IOC is being transformed and because of its past and the forces it attracted, this will take a bit of time and more progress towards FID. FID will change IOC forever and building the LNG plant will begin the long-awaited-for increased valuation of IOC stock.

The floor is in now with Total being onboard and unchallenged and the lid is temporarily capping the pps by the force(s) waiting in the wings.

The major events we await are certification of resources, payments for those resources from Total, FEED, FID, size & construction of LNG plant, drill bit results, further monetization of assets.

Looks like we have an eventful decade or more ahead of us. Buckle up!

[jft310]

Sam - the refuting of the shorts arguments over the years wil help the stock price per share . The shorts have dung the size of the asset , the flow rate and the connectivity aspect of the asset .
All those items are being addressed between now and June 30 . With that behind us its certification time and payment time . Confirmation of enough gas for a 2 train plant with a concept and a time line from Total will allow the analysts to use discounted cash flow models which removes a great deal of the uncertainty about the project .
The cash represents what the street wants certainty over size of project and certainty of an intent to build and when . That's why the cash moves the needle .
It really doesn't matter what SHU investors in the most part think about IOC . What matters is what does , Chandler , Wells and American type funds think . They can move the needle . A 10,000 share position is a lot of money but it will not move the needle . Multi million share position moves the needle .

[SamAdams]

As usual JFT, you state the obivous over and over and over agian.  But be honest, Chandler and your beloved Wells have done nothing for the stock.  Wells was probably loaning it our all along.  Its the incremental buyer that will move the stock and not the entrenched longs at SHU or Wells or American funds.  The stock needs new buyers of size who see the value.  The chart is the chart and pure techinical analysis doesn't bother the "story" and who's manipulating it.  It's just a chart.  The story is still not resonating or widely given much credence despite the sell side coverage which has shown up.  My former post was simply to point out we are still in a well defined downtrend from mid '13.  We need to get our of the channel and find support above $60  to change the trend.