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IMHO I always assumed the SD partner would get a "better price " than PRE due to them having more leverage. However $1mcf is not a "better price" that is highway robbery. I can't imagine the bids changing that much & am going to assume these rumors are nothing more than rumors. With that being said I don't think a big drilling update will move the pps up a lot immediately due to the "uncertainty" being touted by the Street however I would assume all of the final bidders are being made aware of the results & that the final bids will reflect any new results
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'TxPm' pid='13358' datel Wrote:IMHO I always assumed the SD partner would get a "better price " than PRE due to them having more leverage. However $1mcf is not a "better price" that is highway robbery. I can't imagine the bids changing that much & am going to assume these rumors are nothing more than rumors. With that being said I don't think a big drilling update will move the pps up a lot immediately due to the "uncertainty" being touted by the Street however I would assume all of the final bidders are being made aware of the results & that the final bids will reflect any new results
Excellent point regarding drilling report. Ant cant be improved much via the drilling report in terms of PPS valuation. If PPS was valued at all off Ant , it would be MUCH higher already. As an aside T2 drilling results were met with a pin drop by the market. Its very possible that the SD partner wants an indication from Ant3 though. I have a feeling the SD will be later than sooner.
I agree with Ebster too re the PPS short term. If we dont hear anything by Friday I think 40's are more likely than not.
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Ebster I dont believe Oneill is trying to force their hand, but there may be some positive results from the well VERY soon - not the more time involved dst's and such, but a mere gas kick that might make a difference. Could be any day now.
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The poison pill is structured in such a way that as long as someone makes an offer for the whole company and >50% of shareholders agree to the offer then the pill can't be used. The poison pill only prevents a potential suitor from accumulating more that 20% of the stock outside of an offer for the whole company.
I would think that based on the nature of the deal with the government a hostile offer is unlikely. A bidding company would have to get comfortable with having a locked in LNG deal with the government to make an offer and it seems this is going to be tied in with the sell down.
There is always the talk of Shell having the government relationship and going hostile but its hard to know where that really stands. I would be fairly surprised if Shell went hostile.
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Your point regarding a bidders marriage to the PNG being part of the dowry is a good point. I agree that makes it rather unlikely.
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I have heard that the additional sale to the PNG govt was IOC's idea. No idea if this is true but when I heard it I thought that if so it may be have been done to prevent (or make it less inviting for) a hostile takeover. It has been said many times that a hostile takeover has been a big worry for IOC.
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I think realism is setting in regarding deal pricing and PPS reaction to it. I happen to agree with you CAC. I think the move to $99 was orchestrated by shorts. They have made FAR more money going back down than they lost on the rise. It was a 1 day event going up. I agree with your more muted PPS projection. Ultimately those that hang until revenue generation (assuming things proceed smoothly) will be rewarded with a higher PPS. But thats a long way off.
Disclosure : Long but sobering up and more realistic
