Well..

[jft310]

Thanks Tusker,Tree and Hemi. I have this IOC money ear marked for all the Grandkids. I need buckets and buckets and buckets of money.UVA and Duke are not cheap!!!
Well I may spend a few drops and meet Spartina for a dive trip near PNG ,and Stavros and I want to go to Vietnam and Singapore ,and Caserta wants to go to PNG and Becky wants two weeks in the Greek Isles. Well yes I know thats part of another bucket.Oh well...

[ebster123]

What if we have a small group of investors that want to make a great BIG PILE of money and they control 73% of the shares. Doesn't matter what the other 27% vote. Doesn't matter if the BOD wants to sell. Does matter what these 10 investors want to do. As I said they were polled in Dec and voted to NOT sell the entire company. This is May could they have changed their minds well maybe yes , reality I don't think so.

p

JFT, you now business, EVERYONE has a price.  I still think there is a good chance some are trying to figure what that price is and we shall see....time will tell...

[CesiumFormate]

Now is not a good time to figure out how to price IOC for a buyout. My theory is that we will see a double spike. Why? With 37% short interest the price will go too high if you try to buy it now. I believe we need an announcement, and a squeeze with time for the stock to settle out. Once it settles out, the short interest should drop to a more normal level based on the present value of what is known and a small premium for the undeveloped licenses. Then it will be time for someone to make an offer. With that we will see a premium spike and a public bidding war.

CF

[Dmarque]

Well my thoughts on a buyout are that it is complete insanity.   If we took both of our rigs to Tri and drilled 2 wells at the optimal locations we could potentially add 4 TCF in 3 months at very low risk.  Why would the top ten holders want to sell the entire company now when in a potential 3 months they could increase the company value by 33%??!!

Perhaps an entire buyout of PRL 15 and then rinse and repeat on future PRLs, but somehow I think our whales have a longer term vision than the next year.  I strongly oppose a complete company buyout.

Gator - 2

Jft - 1

Keep it on Ice,

Hemi

I love it when you talk dirty D!  I guess you are as tired as I am about this minimalist talk abouut $1.00 and $1.20 bid prices and the lack of foresight about the future value of the additional potential drill sites.  $200 on the surface sounds good to many in a relative sense but not in the true assessment of the properties we hold and what this portends as we get cash in  hand and drills on the ready.......People have to get a sharper pencil!!

[ArtM72]

Any confirmation of the assets' validity is money in the bank..I continue to believe we are talking a $1,000/share value but suspect when/if the offer goes to $400 that will simply be a new baseline from which future growth within will emerge.

[petrengr1]

Something to think about:

These funds that own large numbers of IOC shares have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. If an offer is in the best interest of their shareholders they will be required to vote to sell. Many of these funds have managers that are paid large bonuses based on performance. They would very much like to receive a large bonus.

Many of the smaller funds, having less than 1%, will vote to sell, depending on the offering price. The smaller funds have about 12% of the stock.

Many of the retail shareholders will vote to sell, depending on the offering price. How much do they have? Maybe 20%?

How easy will it be to get shareholder approval to sell? I think they only have to have a majority of the votes i.e. 50%+1.

If Chandler acquires 20% he will only need another 30% of the shareholders to vote with him. The top 3 or 4 shareholders could swing it or fewer if many of the retail shareholders and smaller funds vote to sell.

I think the shareholders will vote to approve the sale of the Company for any reasonable offer. What is a reasonable offer? It is anyone’s guess. Mine is about $150/sh. Do I think the Company is worth more than that? Of course. But what we are trying to determine here is at what price do we think the shareholders would be willing to sell the Company. I gave you my guess, what is your guess?

If Chandler wants to take over the Company or sell the Company to another entity that has the funds to bid $150/sh or more I do not think Chandler would have any problem finding another 30% of shareholders to vote with him.

Will the Company be sold for as little as $150/share? Probably not. Will we have a short squeeze that will drive the share price higher? Probably. Will that make an acquiring Company have to bid higher? I would think so. Will we have a bidding war between two or more entities that would like to own IOC’s assets? I think it is likely. Would that drive the share price above $150/share. I believe it would.

Would the people who want to sell the company accept a higher price? I think they would like that.

[Dmarque]

Something to think about: These funds that own large numbers of IOC shares have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. If an offer is in the best interest of their shareholders they will be required to vote to sell. Many of these funds have managers that are paid large bonuses based on performance. They would very much like to receive a large bonus. Many of the smaller funds, having less than 1%, will vote to sell, depending on the offering price. The smaller funds have about 12% of the stock. Many of the retail shareholders will vote to sell, depending on the offering price. How much do they have? Maybe 20%? How easy will it be to get shareholder approval to sell? I think they only have to have a majority of the votes i.e. 50%+1. If Chandler acquires 20% he will only need another 30% of the shareholders to vote with him. The top 3 or 4 shareholders could swing it or fewer if many of the retail shareholders and smaller funds vote to sell. I think the shareholders will vote to approve the sale of the Company for any reasonable offer. What is a reasonable offer? It is anyone’s guess. Mine is about $150/sh. Do I think the Company is worth more than that? Of course. But what we are trying to determine here is at what price do we think the shareholders would be willing to sell the Company. I gave you my guess, what is your guess? If Chandler wants to take over the Company or sell the Company to another entity that has the funds to bid $150/sh or more I do not think Chandler would have any problem finding another 30% of shareholders to vote with him. Will the Company be sold for as little as $150/share? Probably not. Will we have a short squeeze that will drive the share price higher? Probably. Will that make an acquiring Company have to bid higher? I would think so. Will we have a bidding war between two or more entities that would like to own IOC’s assets? I think it is likely. Would that drive the share price above $150/share. I believe it would. Would the people who want to sell the company accept a higher price? I think they would like that.

Hi Pet:

Your suggestion of a $150 price as acceptable seems extremely low to me.  Considering the fact that more than 70% of the outstanding shares are owned by only 10 large scale committed investors.  With the recent purchases by Chandler at over $90/share I doubt that purchases of that signiicance will be satisfied by a $150 exchange.  I could be wrong but.....applying a more appropriate asset price of $2.00/mcf and a potentially unlimited amount of new drilling sites to be started with the new accumulated capital I don't see anything less than $400 as being acceptable and a case for more is not outside of reason.

[petrengr1]

Again, my comments are not about what the company is worth but what the company can be bought for. If someone offered $150/share today with the share price at $90/share, I believe more than 50% of the shareholders would accept, especially if it includes Chandler. He is not buying more shares at $90/share in order to make a profit but to have a better chance of being on the winning side when it comes to a vote. Just my opinion.

[kerekesc]

Again, my comments are not about what the company is worth but what the company can be bought for. If someone offered $150/share today with the share price at $90/share, I believe more than 50% of the shareholders would accept, especially if it includes Chandler. He is not buying more shares at $90/share in order to make a profit but to have a better chance of being on the winning side when it comes to a vote. Just my opinion.

I find it difficult to understand why anyone would want to purchase a stock, at any price, if not to make a profit.  If he doesn't wish to make a profit with his money, why not just donate it?  I'll be happy to partake of his generosity.

[jft310]

If I were a fund share owner and I found the fund manager sold something that was worth well more than $400 in 2-3 years(monetization of the assets with a CSP) for $150 today I would see he was fired . Fiduciary respondsibility cuts both ways short and long term. Everyone wants a deal and thats a start on proper valuation work(gets those short term fund owners off your back) and then to drill more prospects and with those drilling results we can get a better resource estimate and then can get a Net Present Value for IOC based on the new assets. With this first deal closed and FIDed IOC is worth quite a bit more. Drill several more wells and we can talk takeover then. Or the two spike theory works for me.