Well..

[ArtM72]

JFT -

No sale until Ttops defined and next two "pearls" drilled found dry. You just can t fold when the first two cards you are dealt are a pair of aces.

[jft310]

I am with you ART. Drilling Triceratops is a no brainer before a sale as is Whale and Tuna. I bet we get that chance and then watch out is my take. These fund managers have a Fiduciary respondsibilty to make long term money for their shareholders. Where do find another IOC???This point should nail it for you the difference in a sell down today and buy out are minimal without drilling Triceratops. If Dave Holland is right TRI has more NG and liquids than E/A and proof of that sends the buyout price way up and without it not so much.We wait.

[CesiumFormate]

One could argue that if we get shares in another company which will get the upside form Triceratops, Whale, and Tuna, that we would see that upside if we hold the acquiring company shares. There would only be a downside if it were a cash deal, or if the acquiring company had a poor portfolio.
CF

[petrengr1]

Again, my comments are not about what the company is worth but what the company can be bought for. If someone offered $150/share today with the share price at $90/share, I believe more than 50% of the shareholders would accept, especially if it includes Chandler. He is not buying more shares at $90/share in order to make a profit but to have a better chance of being on the winning side when it comes to a vote. Just my opinion.

I find it difficult to understand why anyone would want to purchase a stock, at any price, if not to make a profit.  If he doesn't wish to make a profit with his money, why not just donate it?  I'll be happy to partake of his generosity.

Kerekesc-You are right of course. My statement was poorly worded. Maybe I should have said he was not interested in “short term” profit. I am trying to think like a billionaire but I don’t have any experience in that regard. Let’s say he is willing to pay $150/share so he thinks he is getting a bargain at $90/share. Let’s say he knows the Company is worth $400/share but he thinks he can buy it for $150/share. If these statements are true, then I think he will keep buying up to 20% and probably beyond. At what price do you think the IOC board of directors will have a fiduciary responsibility to accept a buy out offer as “friendly”?

[sageo]

JFT - No sale until Ttops defined and next two "pearls" drilled found dry. You just can t fold when the first two cards you are dealt are a pair of aces.

Art --We have the two aces now with a great chance for a third one and maybe even a fourth one! The key word now is "drilling".Elk 3 and others are beging for a drill bit to start turning ! Hope that happens ( that dreaded word) "soon" ! GLYY .

[admin]

JFT - No sale until Ttops defined and next two "pearls" drilled found dry. You just can t fold when the first two cards you are dealt are a pair of aces.

Really very well stated, Art. Couldn't agree more.

[Gator]

If I were a fund share owner and I found the fund manager sold something that was worth well more than $400 in 2-3 years(monetization of the assets with a CSP) for $150 today I would see he was fired . Fiduciary respondsibility cuts both ways short and long term. Everyone wants a deal and thats a start on proper valuation work(gets those short term fund owners off your back) and then to drill more prospects and with those drilling results we can get a better resource estimate and then can get a Net Present Value for IOC based on the new assets. With this first deal closed and FIDed IOC is worth quite a bit more. Drill several more wells and we can talk takeover then. Or the two spike theory works for me.

Three years ago you said it would be over $400 by now. You have also told us we would be getting 2 XOM shares for part of E/A. You have told us IOC has received takeover offers in the past, but they were “verbal” therefore never presented to shareholders. So when you said “they voted those top 10 to not sell the company” that is not true.  Maybe to BoD voted not to sell (in the past) but shareholders have never had a vote on a buyout.

I am looking at the real world.  Right now IOC is taking bids for xx% of E/A at a price of $y.yy per mcf. We don’t know what x or y are, but currently z (IOC stock) is $92.34.  Any buyer in the real world is looking to buy at the lowest cost they can. There are also a limited number of buyers because the PNG government is making the rules.  Bidders might be going back and forth and y might be going up.  When they buyers see the total cost of x% vs. the cost of z*T (where T is a takeover premium) the buyers are at a tipping point.  Do I raise my bid to outbid one other buyer, do I buy the whole company, or do I walk away?  So like it or not, InterOil is for sale.  As the old joke goes, now we are negotiating price.

Shareholders buy stocks to make money.  7 of the top 10 shareholders are in the business to make money for other people.  If given the choice they might be willing to sell at a 50-70% premium to today’s price vs. waiting and hoping for an unknown down the road.  Three to five years is a long time in this economy.   With the heave concentration of shareholders, IOC stock maybe has become a one way ticket.  The only way some shareholder will be able to exit, is a complete buyout of the company.  As I said, InterOil is for sale.

[Investor1979]

Some quick rough math, would indicate an approximate value for the EA field only at about$10 billion for IOC's share, which is about $200 a share, presuming the winning bidder pays $2 per mcf. So it woiuld be hard for me to believe that a losing bidder would not be willing to pay in excess of $200 per share to buy the whole company.I certainly would, if I had the financial resources.Am I missing something?

[sageo]

Gator-- Thanks for your post. You are right....today most investors (or money managers) are short term thinkers. I'm not critizing them, I'm just saying what appears to be the case. I started buying XOM in 1971,and have never sold a share.Have given some to lots of grandkids when they were little ones. No, I'm not saying that in a few years IOC could become an XOM, but"what if" it became a small XOM with all the stock splits .....( I think we've had 14 or so with XOM),,,,,,yes,I know, most folks can't wait that long. No,we didn't come from rich families.....we just worked long hours and saved. Good fortune to you and all our long BOBs.

[admin]

Gator-- Thanks for your post. You are right....today most investors (or money managers) are short term thinkers. I'm not critizing them, I'm just saying what appears to be the case. I started buying XOM in 1971,and have never sold a share.Have given some to lots of grandkids when they were little ones. No, I'm not saying that in a few years IOC could become an XOM, but"what if" it became a small XOM with all the stock splits .....( I think we've had 14 or so with XOM),,,,,,yes,I know, most folks can't wait that long. No,we didn't come from rich families.....we just worked long hours and saved. Good fortune to you and all our long BOBs.

Cheers to you Sageo, that's Buffett like investing.

I hope that IOC can remain independent as the odds are pretty good for a situation in which investors doesn't have to sell either, apart perhaps for some stock to trade with for fun.