So let me get this straight...

[Gator]

'You are what your record says you are' It had been a month since the "Transformational Deal" has been announced. Management claimed it was a great deal. Management promised more information soon. They hit the road doing 4 presentations in three countries the week after this great deal was done. They claim more gas will be discovered as they as they start 3 drilling rigs. They claim the IPI issue will be settled as a neutral transaction. Great deals don't give shareholders 50% less value. Something is wrong. I guess that is what happens when a CEO that has no shares is put in charge of creating shareholder value.

[johnwgrant]

I have a dream...

InterOil announces tomorrow that they have turned down an all cash offer from Exxon for $125/share... Their reason is that the offer does not reflect the full value of the company !!!

Sigh - it is only a dream...

[ltinvest]

Steve, what history? Hession's history at Woodside and his ability to get a project to FID and first cargo?

[ltinvest]

[quote='Gator' pid='35639' dateline='1389044416']

'You are what your record says you are' It had been a month since the "Transformational Deal" has been announced. Management claimed it was a great deal. Management promised more information soon. They hit the road doing 4 presentations in three countries the week after this great deal was done. They claim more gas will be discovered as they as they start 3 drilling rigs. They claim the IPI issue will be settled as a neutral transaction. Great deals don't give shareholders 50% less value. Something is wrong. I guess that is what happens when a CEO that has no shares is put in charge of creating shareholder value.

Gator, do you think Hession has been sitting on his ass doing nothing or do you believe he has been making poor decisions?

[kkozkkoz]

'You are what your record says you are' It had been a month since the "Transformational Deal" has been announced. Management claimed it was a great deal. Management promised more information soon. They hit the road doing 4 presentations in three countries the week after this great deal was done. They claim more gas will be discovered as they as they start 3 drilling rigs. They claim the IPI issue will be settled as a neutral transaction. Great deals don't give shareholders 50% less value. Something is wrong. I guess that is what happens when a CEO that has no shares is put in charge of creating shareholder value.

I've asked the same question, why doesn't the CEO buy shares if they are so undervalued?  All I hear from the board is crickets.  Apparently I own more shares than the CEO of the company.  I for one will be pissed if suddenly the company prices CEO options based upon the current price and not the price when he was brought on board.

[kerekesc]

there's no efficiency.....no rationality.....nothing close to what makes any sense. various analysts have calculated NAV using conservative variables and have come up with price targets 60% to 120% higher than where we are now. It's beyond absurd!

I totally agree with the frustration!  But, I disagree with the the statement that there is "no rationality."  If there are 10T of gas in E/A, at $15 per mcf the total value would be $150 billion.  If there are is an "elephant" in Antelope deep, if Triceratops is larger than E/A, and if there are 5 or 6 more potential reefs, how much more would these be worth than the $150 billion for E/A?  In comparision to the value of these fields, how much less expensive are the costs when these fields are 3 days from the three largest LNG importers on the planet?  How much less are the costs when you are drilling on land not far from the coast as opposed to drilling in deep water?  "No rationality?"  Of course there is!  There is/has been a huge, behind the scenes battle of epic proportions for these assets.  Lies, misinformation, black pools, naked shorting,etc plus a combination of government corruption in a third world country and mega dollars from super major international corporations hungry to increase reserves and profits for what they consider "petty cash."  A few hundred million to Amud is huge.  A few billion to Shell is peanuts!  Several posters have aluded to this, the biggest challenge facing IOC is being bought-out for chicken feed.........$150-$200!  That my friends, is the rationality! (In my humble opinion, of course).

[Gator]

"Gator, do you think Hession has been sitting on his ass doing nothing or do you believe he has been making poor decisions?"

If I were Hession and put in charge of doing the deal, it would only be human nature to work a deal that would also benefit me. What might be best for Dr. Mike is 5 or 6 years of stock option grants (like Wayne) followed by production in, say 2020.

[Thylacine-2]

'You are what your record says you are' It had been a month since the "Transformational Deal" has been announced. Management claimed it was a great deal. Management promised more information soon. They hit the road doing 4 presentations in three countries the week after this great deal was done. They claim more gas will be discovered as they as they start 3 drilling rigs. They claim the IPI issue will be settled as a neutral transaction. Great deals don't give shareholders 50% less value. Something is wrong. I guess that is what happens when a CEO that has no shares is put in charge of creating shareholder value.

It sounded like a good deal to me on the first CC.  Reading the SPA the next day confirmed the first impression.  And I still believe it's a good deal.

Something is wrong, alright, but it's not the quality of the deal.

The best case, from my position, is if the sp collapse is due to the manipulations of short funds looking to make money on the volatility.  If so, they will have to cover.

A worse case is if somebody trying to steal the company is behind the sp collapse.

If it's not insiders making the attempt, the company will mount a vigorous defence.

[ArtM72]

If IOC simply recertifies at 9.9 TCfe....the GLJ best case after 3 seperate years of analysis......Total is paying IOC $4 BILLION is the next 18 months. Total could come in right now and write a $5 BILLION check and have the whole damn thing....every last bit of upside. What a ridiculous steal!

The only problem with Total trying to come in with a $5 billion check is that the very act would validate IOC and start the bidding war.

While I have been around too many bulletin boards loaded with people complaining about manipulation by shorts this truly might be the case with IOC.  On the other hand, I subscribe to the multiple factors theory which says there are a lot of reasons for the IOC fall.  These includes margin calls forcing sales on the day of the massacre, computerized/algorithm selling on technicals, real live brokers selling on momentum and simply people selling and others failing to invest who don't know or don't believe what (we) longs believe to be the truth about the resource.  Then we have the question of management  quality.  Oh yeah.  Let's not forget the wise souls who had stop losses taken out in the 80s and 70s and are waiting for a re-entry.

Me?  I think I've invested as much money in IOC as is prudent, at least for me until the Total deal closes.  My hope and guess is that IOC's share price will be like most large rockets once it finally launches.  It will ignite on the announcement, sit for an instant, slowly lift off the pad and then start accellerating as market confidence and resource recognition builds.

Just a hope at this point.

[steve3752]

Invest::

I personally believe the market is irrational in it's current pricing of IOC  and I believe the deal Hession has brought us is a great long term deal.

My point is that the irrational market,  based on the history of InterOil,  will have doubt  until there is actual FID.

Some of the doubt was the fault of IOC and some not.  Hession may be good. However the doubt has accumulated over a period of years and is hard to overcome quickly short of actual FID.   Just my opinion.

Market is saying " Show me the money".