03-06-2012, 03:15 AM
Great summary maui! I cant write and listen at same time.
L Ron Rules!
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RJ presentation
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03-06-2012, 03:17 AM
Thanks for info Mauihuntly and Croozbrinkley! 19th CC ought to be full of info.
03-06-2012, 03:19 AM
Maui,
Thanks for the synopsis! -AP
03-06-2012, 04:48 AM
Maui, thanks!! Sounds like very solid progress. My fear is, unless IOC makes some kind of announcement regarding SD or NEC approval the shorts will continue to beat on the stock for 10 daysor so. This can be a not so good thing.
03-06-2012, 05:25 AM
Just listened to call and a few things:
1. WA would not be the guy you want giving a pep talk to your team right before a big game. Good info, but pretty vanilla. 2. Likes Wayne's comments on political situation; do not get the feeling that elections will hold up moving ahead. If JKM or whomever can agree on terms with IOC, it sounds as if the gov will approveof them, but question is startup volume. How will they satisfy what gov wants if they will require 7.6mtpas at startup? 3. EWC most likely in especially with JKM. I think Mr Chandler's move says a lot about his confidence. 4. Still think the issue of FLNG being acceptable technology is not the issue. Petromin will be more likely to be favorable as long as their FLNG is first. FLEX could be the add'l 2mtpas that gets us to startup government wants. 5. Will be interested in hearing both Pet's comments when he gets a chance, and Dr Wu's from the breakout and possible one-on-one with WA. 6. The $3/mtpa that XOM got for in-the-ground gas can't be a sticking point for our SD. Will be very hard to match that given we are not XOM. 7. Will Pavel update this week or wait until we get first drilling update after reef is penetrated?
03-06-2012, 07:02 AM
Guys, I think the word for what's already been found indicating shallow water reef like Antelope (and probably with dolomite as well), is "coral", not "coal", a great sign already it seems to me!
Maui, the estimated 7-10 days is not just for liner, but for all those mechanical things being done now before drilling into the reservoir, including running and setting the liner, conducting vertical seismic profile, running tie back with dual down hole deployment valves (DDV), installing managed pressure drilling equipment, and testing blow out preventer (BOP). Then they will drill into the reservoir and conduct a drill stem test, logs, etc. He said one group of bidder/candidates were in PNG talking with the government today (apparently JKM), and others (plural) were visiting PNG also! Palm, regarding numbers 2 and 4, he said the 7.6 mmtpa plus in the project agreement will be met by the current project plus expansion with the new project partner; and I didn't hear anything about Petromin needing to go first on FLNG, which I do not think is the case. He not only said they have plenty of cash now, but that they expect to get substantial cash from a new partnership deal which will allow a much accelerated exploration program, along with drilling partnership(s) with the new project partner(s) or others, for which they have great interest.
03-06-2012, 07:12 AM
On the other hand, maybe the bidders in PNG "today" talking with the government were other than JKM, who have apparently already been. He referred to the press story about a bidder, essentially confirming JKM and their deep involvement. He seemed to think those bidder discussions with PNG could move things along.
03-06-2012, 07:28 AM
Yes, if Govt. approval is the (or a) bottleneck then the visit of Japanese and Korean dignitaries expressing their serious intent will probably speed things up.
03-06-2012, 08:09 AM
"7. Will Pavel update this week or wait until we get first drilling update after reef is penetrated?"
RJ is putting out brief comments more than once a day from all the presentations at the conference. There should be at least some comment from Pavel tomorrow if it is not already out tonight.
03-06-2012, 08:37 AM
Getit - correct, that's what I also got from slide 19.
Here's my revised estimates based on today's data, plus what we've previously been told: - Conduct VSP - Run 9-5/8" tie back w/DDV: March 13 "7-10 days from today" - Install pressure managed equipment - Test BOP - Drill into reservoir 200-300' - Conduct DST March 21 - Drill to prognosed TD ~7,572' - Run wireline logs & test - Take rotary sidewall core plugs - Complete well May 15 Of course I don't know the underlying durations of each activity, but at a macro level it does look like if things go well they may have a DST for us by the 4Q CC coming up week of the 19th. For now, I'm sticking with a mid-May target date for completion, but certainly major issues (or lack of) will influence final date. |
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