11-08-2012, 03:46 AM
All - Should have done this before I did my back of the envelope. Here are the assumptions/results of the cash flows:
Low Case Contingent Resource - 6.5 TCF and 105 MMBL Condensate (7.1 TCF Equivalent)
Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train
First Gas - Q4 2016
$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate
8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate...per 9/29/2012 slide pack
Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues
$5,076 Million Capital phased over 3 years from 2013 to 2016
$117.1 Million per year operating expense
Did not estimate abandonment liability
Discount Factor - 10%
Undiscounted Cumulative Cash Flow - $51.2 Billion
Net Present Value @ 10% - $9.7 Billion or 1.37/mcfe (using gross resource)
Stock price - $202 using 48 million shares outstanding
Mid Case Contingent Resource - 8.6 TCF and 129 MMBL Condensate (9.4 TCF Equivalent)
Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train; Phase 2 - add a second 4 MTPA train after 2 years of production into Train 1
First Gas - Q4 2016 (train 1); 2019 - train 2
$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate
8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate
Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues
$5,076 Million Capital for Phase 1, +$3,828 Million Capital for Phase 2 - Total $8.9B
$155.8 Million per year operating expense
Did not estimate abandonment liability
Discount Factor - 10%
Cumulative Cash Flow - $65.6 Billion
Net Present Value @ 10% - $15.9 Billion or 1.70/mcfe (using C2 gross resource)
Stock price - $332 using 48 million shares outstanding
Applying 90% confidence to the low case - $180
and 50% confidence to mid case (incrementally) - +$65
Estimated Value of $245/share.
Much better than I expected...I couldn't match exactly what IOC showed, but it was fairly close.
Best,
Petro2458