IOC Value

[jft310]

All - Should have done this before I did my back of the envelope.  Here are the assumptions/results of the cash flows:

Low Case Contingent Resource - 6.5 TCF and 105 MMBL Condensate (7.1 TCF Equivalent)

Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train

First Gas - Q4 2016

$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate

8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate...per 9/29/2012 slide pack

Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues

$5,076 Million Capital phased over 3 years from 2013 to 2016

$117.1 Million per year operating expense

Did not estimate abandonment liability

Discount Factor - 10%

Undiscounted Cumulative Cash Flow - $51.2 Billion

Net Present Value @ 10% - $9.7 Billion or 1.37/mcfe (using gross resource)

Stock price - $202 using 48 million shares outstanding

Mid Case Contingent Resource - 8.6 TCF and 129 MMBL Condensate (9.4 TCF Equivalent)

Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train;  Phase 2 - add a second 4 MTPA train after 2 years of production into Train 1

First Gas - Q4 2016 (train 1);  2019 - train 2

$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate

8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate

Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues

$5,076 Million Capital for Phase 1, +$3,828 Million Capital for Phase 2 - Total $8.9B

$155.8 Million per year operating expense

Did not estimate abandonment liability

Discount Factor - 10%

Cumulative Cash Flow - $65.6 Billion

Net Present Value @ 10% - $15.9 Billion or 1.70/mcfe (using C2 gross resource)

Stock price - $332 using 48 million shares outstanding

Applying 90% confidence to the low case - $180

and 50% confidence to mid case (incrementally) - +$65

Estimated Value of $245/share.  

Much better than I expected...I couldn't match exactly what IOC showed, but it was fairly close.  

Best,

Petro2458

Per Morgan and Ray Jay and Henry the right number may be 12.1 T's at E/A. Might call that the high estimate for your work.Or show 3 esimates.

Henry A actually has more data recently and has raised the 12.1 T's  estimate at E/A..I dare not publish his estimate . No that data is not on the IOC slides.

More on the CC I bet.