So in 2001 Shell attempted a hostile bid for Barrett, a private company with 2.1 tcf in reserves for anout 2 billion dolllars. Williams came in as a white knight and bought Barrett for 2.45 billion. A year earlier the tried to buy Woodside in Australia by hostile bid, also not succesful.
Obviously times are different now with the Asian LNG demand....So what would Shell bid. Shell is notoriously cheap when it comes to buyouts and takeovers as per their history. I do not think that will change now. Some people have argued that they learned their lesson. Shell may spur a bidding war but I would doubt that Shell will be the winner of anything with IOC.
I do not see IOC as an independent company for much longer. Willl it be 6 weeks or 3 years. Who knows but I agree that XOM or Shell buyout make a lot of sense as they can likely pay more then the others. XOM is a no brainer as it is cheapest for them to buy IOC as they can divert the gas to their existing infrastructure. Shell already has deep contacts with PNG, but no real projects. That derisks the project for them somewhat over a TOT or CVX.
The question is what and how would these other SM respond to all this and when. What is IOC worth to the likes of XOM or TOT or CVX??? Has Shell learned their lesson. They need aquisitions, but will they pony up???
Just some ruminations in my mind. FWIW