While many of you may have realized this long before I have, last night I had a real Eureka! moment. Through conversations the last few days with those knowledgeable and/or invested in IOC, I heard consistent facts across the different conversations and a continued confidence about the upcoming sell down. Of course, all these investors are long and thus believe in the IOC value. The short argument of past IOC delays and management overpromises will once again equal future results has been a hard argument to combat. I, and many others, feel "this time is different" but if you arent involved directly in these discussions, how do you prove "this time is different" and therefore negate the one last remaining short thesis?
Thats where my Eureka! moment came. I could have titled this "the silence is deafening." Clearly the one thing that is different is the silence from the PNG govt. And that folks is the canary in the coal mine. Rewind a year ago. Had Interoil issued such a press releaase annoucing the dealine for final and binding bids, Duma, et al would have likely spoken publicly and said "not so fast my friend!" Not to mention the leak from the DPE that would have given the shorts a 24 to 48 hour head start. But that hasnt happened this time around and, in my opinion, is precisely why 'this time IS different."
It tells me the PNG Govt:
1. Is aware of and has approved all the bidders still involved in the sell down process.
2. The bidders will satisfy the terms and conditions of the project agreement
3. Has a sense of urgency and wants to see this process finalized so work on the Gulf LNG can proceed.
Lets hope the silence is not only deadly (to the shorts) but its golden too!