Petro2458 dateline='<a href="tel:1352394242">1352394242</a>' Wrote:
If PRE is willing to pay $116 million in cash upfront for 10% of Triceratops, what do you suppose one would pay for 30% of Elk/Antelope? I believe 100% is worth $8 billion on low case resource or $161/share. Sounds like monetization is going to be coincident with an updated resource assessment of E,A, and Triceratops! This is going to be extremely fun.
GLJ Estimates as of 12/31/2011 IOC View Gross Resources P90 P50 P10 P50 Comments Gas initially in-place (GIIP, TCF) 10.2 11.5 13.0 12.0 Recovery Factor (%) 63.4% 74.4% 80.5% 79.5% High recover factor likely to require more wells/capital than shown Recoverable Gas (TCF) 6.5 8.6 10.4 9.5 IOC used 9.54 TCF in their "expected case" in September 29, 2012 investor pack. i.e IOC believes the expected case is 0.9 TCF higher than GLJ Condensate Yield (BBL/MMCFG) 16.3 15.0 14.5 13.5 IOC declines this over time…i.e condensate yield is higher earlier in field life Recoverable Condensate (MMBBLS) 105.3 128.9 151.4 128.9 Recoverable Gas Equivalent (TCFE) 7.1 9.4 11.3 10.3 IOC Working Interest 58.60% 58.60% 58.60% 58.60% Working interest assuming all partners exercise working interest rights (i.e. PNG 22.5%, etc..) IOC Net Revenue Interest 57.43% 57.43% 57.43% 57.43% Net of IOC's pro-rata share after 2% royalty and development levies. Net Resources Recoverable Gas (TCF) 3.7 4.9 6.0 5.5 Recoverable Condensate (MMBBLS) 60.5 74.0 86.9 74.0 Recoverable Gas Equivalent (TCFE) 4.1 5.4 6.5 5.9 Recoverable Oil Equivalent (MMBOE) 680 896 1,086 987 Capital, Opex, and Commodity Price Assumptions Phase 1 Dev't Capital ($ MM) $5,076 $5,076 $5,076 $5,076 Q4 2016 Startup Phase 2 Dev't Capital ($ MM) $- $3,828 $3,828 $3,828 2019 Startup (Depends on Phase 1 performance..i.e. wells indicate mid case recovery) Phase 3 Dev't Capital ($ MM) $- $- $3,740 $- 2021 Startup (Depends on Phase 2 performance..i.e. wells indicate high case recovery) Total Project Capital $ MM) $5,076 $8,904 $12,644 $8,904 Total Project Capital ($/BOE) $4.29 $5.71 $6.68 $5.18 Annual Operating Expense ($ MM/year) $117.1 $155.8 $195.7 $155.8 LNG Pricing ($/MMBTU) 14.35 IOC pack suggests this is tied to $100/BO Brent; Is this the way the offtake agreements will be structured?? Condensate Pricing ($/BBL) 95.00 $5/discount to brent assumed IOC Net Capital ($ MM) $2,974 $5,218 $7,409 $5,218 Pre-Tax Economics Net Present Value ($ Billion) @ 10% Disc. Rate $11.2 $18.6 $23.2 $19.3 10% Discount most commonly used my majors and independent E&P companies (8,10, 12% are common ranges) Net Present Value ($ Billion) @ 15% Disc. Rate $6.4 $10.7 $13.4 $11.0 Some companies use NPV15 to reflect their own high cost of capital NPV 10 / Gross MCF Equivalent ($/MCFE) $1.58 $1.98 $2.05 $1.88 Shares Outstanding (million shares) 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 Price-per-share ($/Share) $234 $387 $484 $403 After Tax Economics 30% Tax rate to PNG; Assumes 30% tax on gross revenues after opex/capex paid. Net Present Value ($ Billion) @ 10% Disc. Rate $7.7 $12.9 $16.1 $13.4 Net Present Value ($ Billion) @ 15% Disc. Rate $4.2 $7.3 $9.3 $7.5 NPV 10 / Gross MCF Equivalent ($/MCFE) $1.09 $1.37 $1.42 $1.30 Price-per-share ($/Share) $161 $268 $336 $279