'katytrader' pid='33797' datel Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33789' datel Wrote:I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years." So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.Palm, you treat Tilson quite gently in your critique. You might have made somethinhg of his "guess" as to the set of probabilities which Total might have ascribed to different volume levels. You might also have noted that he, Tilson, an undergraduate major in government with an MBA, then gave his own probabilities of different volume levels. I don´t think it is desperation as much as it is a driving need to convince everyone...most importantly himself.....that he is RIGHT! My own guess...which by Tilson´s rules I am entitled to make without particular training.....is that Mr Tilson is a frightfully insecure person. Read his wiki bio. He may be the only living person to have given the name of his nursery school, and his participation at such an age in a psychological experiment, as important background information. While some here would like to see him in jail, I think he, investors, and taxpayers would all be better-served by his spending a lot of time with a therapist.
katytrader
Also from Wiki....
When Google had it's IPO in 2004, Tilson famously said in 2004 Motley Fool article, "Google with the same market cap of McDonald's (a stock I own)?! HA! I believe that it is virtually certain that Google's stock will be highly disappointing to investors foolish enough to participate in its overhyped offering -- you can hold me to that." [7] Note: Since then (as of 10/18/13) Google has gone on to give it's investors over a 1050% return.