12-11-2013, 04:43 AM
'ltinvest' pid='33737' datel Wrote:Mike, it has always made too much sense to me that for similiar $$$, Total or someone else could buy all of IOC and keep the exploration upside. I'd be disappointed in $100 considering the drilling that's to take place over the next couple of years. However, for the same reason, if I'm an acquirer, now is the time to buy out Interoil. Even at $120, there seems to be massive upside if E/A certifies at GLJ numbers and just one additional prospect becomes another E/A type resource.
Yes, $100 would be disappointing using expectations and valuation before last Friday. Now reality has put us at $58 with the same maniuplation and short attacks. IMHO anything at or above $120 would get it done quickly. At least it should. What would $120 be worth by first cargo in 2020? 10% annualized is 2X or $240 (4X current PPS) and is a reasonable discount rate. Until Total makes its first payment in 1Q14 this could get very interesting.