'ltinvest' pid='35636' datel Wrote:If IOC simply recertifies at 9.9 TCfe....the GLJ best case after 3 seperate years of analysis......Total is paying IOC $4 BILLION is the next 18 months. Total could come in right now and write a $5 BILLION check and have the whole damn thing....every last bit of upside. What a ridiculous steal!
The only problem with Total trying to come in with a $5 billion check is that the very act would validate IOC and start the bidding war.
While I have been around too many bulletin boards loaded with people complaining about manipulation by shorts this truly might be the case with IOC. On the other hand, I subscribe to the multiple factors theory which says there are a lot of reasons for the IOC fall. These includes margin calls forcing sales on the day of the massacre, computerized/algorithm selling on technicals, real live brokers selling on momentum and simply people selling and others failing to invest who don't know or don't believe what (we) longs believe to be the truth about the resource. Then we have the question of management quality. Oh yeah. Let's not forget the wise souls who had stop losses taken out in the 80s and 70s and are waiting for a re-entry.
Me? I think I've invested as much money in IOC as is prudent, at least for me until the Total deal closes. My hope and guess is that IOC's share price will be like most large rockets once it finally launches. It will ignite on the announcement, sit for an instant, slowly lift off the pad and then start accellerating as market confidence and resource recognition builds.
Just a hope at this point.