02-13-2014, 01:46 AM
Indoresevoir states this:
"Regardless of Elk/Antelope nearby, the probability of success (POS) for our exploration wells is 1 in 10 or 2 in 10. As IOC has not recently published POS to my knowledge, I wouldn't think they were higher than these historic worldwide success rates based on 2D seismic.
That means we have an 80% to 90% chance of failure."
My feeling, not being a drilling expert by any stretch, is that this statement is not necessarily applicable, as we have heard numerous comments from the company to the contrary. Hession stated in one of his CC's that you typically find more gas, near gas. So using a success rate of drilling campaigns "worldwide" would seem to be like comparing apples to oranges from a logical and scientific standpoint. it is not as if they have chosen random fields, they are drilling areas near gas already found, or areas their research and science leads them to believe they will discover more, and their track record in exploration I think begets a little more faith on Indoresevoir's part here FWIW.
Good luck longs
"Regardless of Elk/Antelope nearby, the probability of success (POS) for our exploration wells is 1 in 10 or 2 in 10. As IOC has not recently published POS to my knowledge, I wouldn't think they were higher than these historic worldwide success rates based on 2D seismic.
That means we have an 80% to 90% chance of failure."
My feeling, not being a drilling expert by any stretch, is that this statement is not necessarily applicable, as we have heard numerous comments from the company to the contrary. Hession stated in one of his CC's that you typically find more gas, near gas. So using a success rate of drilling campaigns "worldwide" would seem to be like comparing apples to oranges from a logical and scientific standpoint. it is not as if they have chosen random fields, they are drilling areas near gas already found, or areas their research and science leads them to believe they will discover more, and their track record in exploration I think begets a little more faith on Indoresevoir's part here FWIW.
Good luck longs