'jdeo1969' pid='40527' datel Wrote:[quote='jft310' pid='40526' dateline='1396111721'] The Exxon proposal that Byker worked on was for them to buy a module of gas. There was no LNG participation. Hession came in and killed the deal. The quote at that time was "We are not gonna give up our future for a quick deal today" . This is a battle over LNG participation rights. If Exxon wants our gas we must have LNG participation. The battle must be over how much..I think ONeil bangs heads and we sell some gas with LNG participation to PNGLNG. Then we find more and build our own plant. Everyone wins.
Understood JFT. My point is larger here, that I believe Oneill wants XOM, and for that we need a pct of the PNG/LNG project. And that this OSH move could move us in that direction. I am trying to illutrate that Oneill, like any politician, sees those numbers for GDP and has to think which route is fastest to realizing that.
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I think that could be right JDEO. But how does O'neil get us that percentage if XOM/OSH refuse to offer it?
I think O'Neil is "quiet" because he is balancing his desire for the gas to go to the existing plant against a competing desire to avoid being perceived as heavy-handed. He wants other companies to feel confident they can do business in PNG without fear. He has tried to move PNG away from the corruption and back-ally dealings (remember his comments about Shell needing to come in through the front door?), so I doubt he wants to be seen as the direct cause of the TOT deal failing...even if that's what he would like to see happen.
To have much effect, it seems to me that O'Neil's influence would need to be towards OSH/XOM moreso than towards IOC. I am guessing that the exclusive negotiations with XOM would have ended with a deal if OSH/XOM would have shared enough plant-equity. If we assume those negotiations failed because XOM wouldn't do so...the question might become...Can O'Neil influence XOM/OSH to meet or beat TOT's equity offer? And even if XOM became willing to do so (either now...or after the OSH ploy fails to get the gas), what happens to the deal with TOT?
And even a complete buyout now seems unlikely to solve the dilemna from O'Neil's perspective. If TOT buys IOC then they, rather than XOM, develop the gas. And if XOM buys out IOC aren't they then second-fiddle to TOT (as IOC currently is under the new agreement) with regard to E/A?
Maybe we actually do want the TOT deal voided (if we now think XOM has moved past their initial "low balling" negotiations)??? I have thought that "clarity" was right around the corner for about three years now...but this saga never seems to end.