I agree with a lot of what's in this thread (though not all, if it matters), but most of all with Trans and Sam. The stock action of IOC recently and this week in particular I don't think provides any support in and of itself for criticism of what's going on at the Company or portends anything about what is coming short-term or long-term. I think it's all about the negative broad market (now affecting major indexes more) and oil prices and energy stocks, and short manipulation taking advantage of it. IOC's close today may have even been a positive sign. It strengthened into the close on increased volume while the market was sinking toward lows for the day.
I agree with JFT and others that the most important component of IOC's value is PRL 15 and its appraisal and certification, both for the purchase payment amounts coming from Total and the LNG present value, as supported by Bernstein and CS. However, I don't think that has had much to do with the pps recently or will have soon, although it can gradually have a positive effect with appraisal progress, arbitration resolution, and the passage of time.
On the other hand I think the pps should get a major assist short-to-intermediate-term from exploration results, both from direct effects on value from empirical results and from improvement in credibility properly cited as an issue by Sam, Putn, and perhaps others, hopefully turning a negative from delays and uncertainty into a positive. The analysts attribute little value to that now, but also cite potential large positive effects from success, although quantification is likely to be difficult to begin with. Furthermore, I see other potentially positive effects on pps beyond those above from new discoveries, especially in light of the Reuters article and PNG comments. New discoveries should increase the certainty of full value from at least two trains and perhaps even more with the Antelope LNG. It also seems to me to support and increase the likelihood of PNG's stated desire for a separate LNG project with Total, while providing other possible sources and increased probability for PNG LNG expansion. All that could be further enhanced in the coming year with positive appraisal results from PRL 39 (Triceratops). None of this is guaranteed, of course, but I like our probabilities, which is what it's all about at this stage; and apparently so do some highly rated institutional and retail analysts and some major institutions and mutual funds. That doesn't mean I'm not getting impatient as hell at this point, with a lot of unanswered questions.
As for some of Nolan's comments, although some posters here sometimes turn out to be overly optimistic, I think it is grossly inappropriate to call any posters I can think of on SHU "pumpers", which denotes a deliberately dishonest process, and which accusations I think may warrant a warning to the accuser. I guess the other extreme from that would be "bashers", or "short bashers", which I've seen plenty of on Yazoo over the years. Imho, I think there have been inaccurate and/or biased postings here in the past more likely to fit that category than the other, but intent/motive vs. honest mistakes can be difficult to ascertain. Also, imho, I think anyone who has sold half his position may be smartly ahead at this point depending on his prices, but depending on when he gets back in may live to regret it, and possibly soon. That, by the way, is not "pumping"; I believe it.
I agree with JFT and others that the most important component of IOC's value is PRL 15 and its appraisal and certification, both for the purchase payment amounts coming from Total and the LNG present value, as supported by Bernstein and CS. However, I don't think that has had much to do with the pps recently or will have soon, although it can gradually have a positive effect with appraisal progress, arbitration resolution, and the passage of time.
On the other hand I think the pps should get a major assist short-to-intermediate-term from exploration results, both from direct effects on value from empirical results and from improvement in credibility properly cited as an issue by Sam, Putn, and perhaps others, hopefully turning a negative from delays and uncertainty into a positive. The analysts attribute little value to that now, but also cite potential large positive effects from success, although quantification is likely to be difficult to begin with. Furthermore, I see other potentially positive effects on pps beyond those above from new discoveries, especially in light of the Reuters article and PNG comments. New discoveries should increase the certainty of full value from at least two trains and perhaps even more with the Antelope LNG. It also seems to me to support and increase the likelihood of PNG's stated desire for a separate LNG project with Total, while providing other possible sources and increased probability for PNG LNG expansion. All that could be further enhanced in the coming year with positive appraisal results from PRL 39 (Triceratops). None of this is guaranteed, of course, but I like our probabilities, which is what it's all about at this stage; and apparently so do some highly rated institutional and retail analysts and some major institutions and mutual funds. That doesn't mean I'm not getting impatient as hell at this point, with a lot of unanswered questions.
As for some of Nolan's comments, although some posters here sometimes turn out to be overly optimistic, I think it is grossly inappropriate to call any posters I can think of on SHU "pumpers", which denotes a deliberately dishonest process, and which accusations I think may warrant a warning to the accuser. I guess the other extreme from that would be "bashers", or "short bashers", which I've seen plenty of on Yazoo over the years. Imho, I think there have been inaccurate and/or biased postings here in the past more likely to fit that category than the other, but intent/motive vs. honest mistakes can be difficult to ascertain. Also, imho, I think anyone who has sold half his position may be smartly ahead at this point depending on his prices, but depending on when he gets back in may live to regret it, and possibly soon. That, by the way, is not "pumping"; I believe it.