'admin' pid='50011' datel Wrote:Well, the funny thing is that if you go back into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower. It's a curious thing for a long to say with such consistency, but perhaps he's onto a new investment philosophy..
Or perhaps my assumption that he's long is just that, an assumption..
Have I been correct about "into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower" when I have stated that?
Admin, If you go back through my posts you will see that I did purchase IOC shares, but I only got about 2/3rd of the quantity that I intended to get as the price climbed higher that I wanted to pay. Yes, I am still making a profit on my IOC shares at this time, but not much.
The first rule of investing is "don't lose on an investment because for every 50% loss one has to make a 100% profit to get back to where one started".
I once got totally wiped out on the stock market (1987) and I intend never to go through that experience again. Yes, everything ... 3 houses, cars, all other investments etc. Had a wife, 2 small children and a life totally destroyed. Never Again.
Why have I been so negative with investments lately ... well I have most of my investments in Australia with Australian shares. Here the market is DOWN year to date. Here the market is down even from the usual low point of the end of our financial year June/July till year to date.
Every time your DOW goes up, our ASX may climb just a little bit if that. Every time your Dow goes down, our ASX shits in its pants. No matter how hard I try or how I manipulate my share purchases, in the current environment HERE in Australia (that I know about the investing climate) I can barely break even (am just a little bit down at the moment), and I have no confidence that things wont get worse.
Looking globally, one can see China will have to start stimulation soon because its economy has turned downwards over the last few months. Europe will have to start Quantitative Easing very soon also by the way the economy there is going. Australia is on its way down because we are tied to the coat tail of China and Iron Ore prices have come down over 40% this calendar year already. We are also starting to fall over the mining investment cliff here so employment and money will become very tight with unemployment rising.
Global energy consumption has been dropping this year and energy production is starting to outstrip demand (because of deteriorating global economic activity). ALL the major energy producers are trying to do whatever they can to cut costs and make savings because the market as it now stands can not support the increased energy costs that should go with the increase in energy production costs happening now. The oil majors are cutting back on all sorts of spending, just to try and minimize their decrease in profits. They are currently going backwards.
YES, things look to be improving in the good old USA, but in truth the salaries there are not moving ... they are actually falling behind the rate of price inflation in America. That is why the FED is so reluctant to even suggest putting up the interest rate.
Am I being paranoid in my global outlook. Possibly. But I will decrease my holdings in IOC as well as the other oil/gas stock I currently hold (STO , WPL, OSH ). I also plan to make a cut back in my major share portfolio (mainly dividend paying stocks) because I worry that dropping prices in these will not be sufficiently offset by the higher dividends that they pay.
As I have mentioned on previous occasions, I would rather not make as much profit on an investment by being too cautious, rather than making a loss by not being cautious enough.
I hope that clarifies my situation and explains from where my posts come from.