'Northoil' pid='51082' datel Wrote:Having been trying to reply to the drilling announcement, wtih no luck. Sorry to start a new thread, but here's the post I tried to add:
This is a pretty unusual announcement, given all the uncertainties expressed. Usually a company would wait for more definitive results, one way or the other, before making any announcement. All I can think of is the pressure on the stock price recently has caused management to put out something positive. That in itself is not normal behavior for most managements.
That said, I'm a little worried. First, does the recent price decline - from 60 to 45 - indicate leaking (bad) new from the well site? I conclude yes. It's difficult to keep news quiet anyway, but in such an intense stock market there are a lot of incentives. There are big-time shorts and well sites can be easily scouted, not to mention contract drilling, logging, and mud tech crews potentially loaded with paid informants. It's not hard - give a logger $10K and he'll tell you anything. I'm further convinced of leaking news because of the more recent stock recovery - from 45 to 51 - again right in advance of hard news. I think people know things and are acting on them.
Second, the announcement itself. Bobcat looks bad. They've drilled the primary objective and run casing, which means they've logged the zone. There's no mention of hydrocarbons or testing, so, although they plan to drill ahead (in a very small hole with little reach), the well is most probably a dry hole.
Raptor definitely looks better. They've drilled 200 meters of potential reservoir. Since they now plan to test, it means they've logged the zone and see a base water contact at some point in that interval, so no more drilling. (You test after final drilling, not during. If they didn't see base water, they would drill ahead). So the well is finished. I wouldn't read too much into what type or column. Logs are pretty definitive in limestone reservoirs, so I think they already know what hydrocarbon and how thick. Testing will prove, or not, the readings to everyone's satisfaction, but importantly, as they stated, will establish flow rates, pressures, reservoir quality, etc. So the whole thing is a mixed bag. FWIW
If you look at Antelop2 you see that they did DST at several levels.