I agree the certification estimates (probably prior to actual payment) would likely be the most important catalyst in the coming year. However, I think there will be other catalysts before then having some effects, as part of an overall uptrend in the stock, in addition to temporary effects from oil prices and the market. I also don't think one should expect effects from news like yesterday to be instantaneous, unless some big surprise. I don't think significant-money investment decisions usually get made that way, or that they typically buy (or sell) all at one time. It does seem to me as of now since this news the stock is outperforming other energy and the market.
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It takes time for the buyers of IOC to buy? Really? Every day we see good news move stocks significantly and instantaneously. It didn't happen for IOC in this case. Let's acknowledge that reality rather than coming up with some theory to rationalize it away.
Apologists everywhere...