Big leg up

[jft310]

The stock today is trading if there is no extra payment or even any LNG plant revenue . A number at PET's estimate on the low side 10 T's means a $2 Billion cash payment and enough gas for a 2 train plant . None of the analyst estimates use 10 T's in their target work . The stock should trade in the $90's . Oil Search has issues as to size . Oil Search internal estimates they said were 3.5 T 's but paid out cash on based 7 T's . Therefore their size estimates are suspect . Once they admit the right size they must show where the cash is coming from. The GCA P-90 number was 5.3 T's and Oil Search again used that number . Again more bogus info because they must pay on the P-50 number . Doesn't matter what the P-90 number might be ever. Today they admit the additional amount per MCF when the estimate comes in higher . First time they reveal that possibility. They do admit the results are coming in higher than their expectations which in reality was 7 T's based on their payment size . Oil Search has no reason to distort the timing . A large buyin at 77 cents in fact makes them look smart . Total will end up paying more . Offers seem inevitable . But like Oil Search the government has a strong voice .