I'm not entirely convinced of this, to be honest. It is very well possible that if Somare hadn't fallen ill that IOC would be well on its way to construct the Gulf project.
However, there is an alternative hypothesis that I cannot totally ignore. It is possible that financing for that project wasn't in place, and was difficult to get, considering the fact that neither EWC nor Flex nor IOC has the required resources to fund the project.
I think the crux of the latter argument is the 'bankability' of the offtake deals. Perhaps these were not as bankable, as they were with traders, not with end demand related parties.
It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened.
Now, personally I do not have enough data to discriminate between one or the other hypothesis, but I think both should be considered as I can't discard any of them either (perhaps others can, but so far I haven't been convinced to sway one way or another, to be honest).
As an additional note, if hypothesis II is right and the Gulf project had problems getting finance because of lack of bankable offtakes, with Duma losing patience, it also means that we have much less to fear from Duma should he return as Energy Minister than many perhaps assume..
And as an update to that, there are reasons to go with that scenario. After all, it is a fact that people like Chandler have put in a substantial part of their net wealth in InterOil, despite the supposed threat of Duma returning. This is actually something that one could argue is corroborative of hypothesis II (albeit far from conclusive evidence, Chandler could simply be wreckless, or assuming that Duma won't return or can be neutralized, etc.)
However, there is an alternative hypothesis that I cannot totally ignore. It is possible that financing for that project wasn't in place, and was difficult to get, considering the fact that neither EWC nor Flex nor IOC has the required resources to fund the project.
I think the crux of the latter argument is the 'bankability' of the offtake deals. Perhaps these were not as bankable, as they were with traders, not with end demand related parties.
It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened.
Now, personally I do not have enough data to discriminate between one or the other hypothesis, but I think both should be considered as I can't discard any of them either (perhaps others can, but so far I haven't been convinced to sway one way or another, to be honest).
As an additional note, if hypothesis II is right and the Gulf project had problems getting finance because of lack of bankable offtakes, with Duma losing patience, it also means that we have much less to fear from Duma should he return as Energy Minister than many perhaps assume..
And as an update to that, there are reasons to go with that scenario. After all, it is a fact that people like Chandler have put in a substantial part of their net wealth in InterOil, despite the supposed threat of Duma returning. This is actually something that one could argue is corroborative of hypothesis II (albeit far from conclusive evidence, Chandler could simply be wreckless, or assuming that Duma won't return or can be neutralized, etc.)