07-19-2012, 10:59 AM
I'm thinking that the only financing Duma had on his mind was how he was going to finance his next condo in Cairns. When Duma got his dander up it was about having a major involved as a partner, an established operator on board and the agreed upon startup volume. Then there was also the fully integrated project requirement and proven technology wording per the PA. Thing is none of this was new and it was for the most part assumed by Ubers that JAPEX would be involved as a partner. Just by sheer coincidence right when Shell decided to move back in to "help" Petromin become what all dreamers had hoped, all of a sudden "someone" pulled out the PA and started to point out where IOC was "suddenly" deviating from it. Forget that Duma and the rest had in effect approved all of IOC's deviations. Suddenly the light went on and these guys all remembered the original PA and how it was all black and white. I can see Duma after chancing to review the agreement; Yikes, this isn't what they are doing. The Gulf? Who said anything about The Gulf? No sir, can't have that.
99.9% of these guys (including Sir Michael) make decisions based in their own "treasury" first, then the good of PNG secondly; a distant 2nd.
To consider Duma's actions as anything other than what he had to do to finance a new condo is just a little naive. Why else do bonk and others want so badly for a Duma or Potape to be appointed as the next DPE Minister? It's not so financing can be required for IOC's project. It's for the Bank of Shell to be able to do the financing.
99.9% of these guys (including Sir Michael) make decisions based in their own "treasury" first, then the good of PNG secondly; a distant 2nd.
To consider Duma's actions as anything other than what he had to do to finance a new condo is just a little naive. Why else do bonk and others want so badly for a Duma or Potape to be appointed as the next DPE Minister? It's not so financing can be required for IOC's project. It's for the Bank of Shell to be able to do the financing.
(07-19-2012, 09:11 AM)Tree Wrote: "It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened."
Could be I guess, STP. I can't believe it though. Kinda odd I think that first Potape, then Duma, would go nuclear and threaten/claim project cancellation beginning in July 2011 if they were 'just tired of waiting'. With so much change of heart by PNG powers in just a few months, the logical conclusion is Project Zebra was real and Shell was behind it as accused. Subsequent comments by PNG pols affirm there was obstruction by DPE.
Timeline revisit:
Duma/Somare were toasting the EWC JVOA which expanded to 3mtpa LNG in Feb 2011, as IOC was lining up FLEX. Which in Apr. 2011 FLEX agreed to join, and that FLNG was backed and guaranteed to perform by SHI. That's as good as a FLNG deal gets. Mitsui was in with a 5% E/A option, that's worth what.....a Billion$? That's about the time Somare gone missing with sad heart in Singapore and Project Zebra was said to have been implemented. Noble OT came July 4ish 2011 and Japs needed contracts in a post nuke JP. Sure looks like IOC was on the way to pulling off financing and OT sales for the project. Just doing the cash flow math from the 2 royalty deals with EWC/FLEX is astounding. Plenty of $ to attract financiers or partners if needed. After all E/A will produce 100's of Billions of LNG sales ALONE. That revenue is ample motive for an attempt to steal IOC's project by Shell.
Just seems too simple that an absent Somare coincided with all the allegations and change of heart.

