07-19-2016, 05:43 AM
RJ says:
How will this story end? InterOil’s board deems Exxon’s proposal to be “superior”;
nonetheless, they still formally recommend the transaction with Oil Search. Oil Search has
three days during which it can offer to amend the terms of the original deal. The question
is: how badly does Oil Search want this acquisition? Needless to say, this is much more
needle-moving for Oil Search than it is for Exxon, but on the other hand, it is not trivial to
fight a bidding war against the world’s largest private-sector oil and gas company. So we
are skeptical that Oil Search will come back with a revised offer, though we cannot rule
that out. Let’s recall that if InterOil walks away, there will be a $60 million breakup fee
(Oil Search gets 80%, Total gets 20%), which equates to $1.20 per IOC share. We’ve also
heard the theory that maybe today’s news will spur Total to take matters into its own
hands and put in its own bid for InterOil. To be crystal clear, we think such a scenario
would be exceedingly unlikely. There is obviously still some uncertainty in the current
situation, but IOC investors will likely have a definitive conclusion this week.
How will this story end? InterOil’s board deems Exxon’s proposal to be “superior”;
nonetheless, they still formally recommend the transaction with Oil Search. Oil Search has
three days during which it can offer to amend the terms of the original deal. The question
is: how badly does Oil Search want this acquisition? Needless to say, this is much more
needle-moving for Oil Search than it is for Exxon, but on the other hand, it is not trivial to
fight a bidding war against the world’s largest private-sector oil and gas company. So we
are skeptical that Oil Search will come back with a revised offer, though we cannot rule
that out. Let’s recall that if InterOil walks away, there will be a $60 million breakup fee
(Oil Search gets 80%, Total gets 20%), which equates to $1.20 per IOC share. We’ve also
heard the theory that maybe today’s news will spur Total to take matters into its own
hands and put in its own bid for InterOil. To be crystal clear, we think such a scenario
would be exceedingly unlikely. There is obviously still some uncertainty in the current
situation, but IOC investors will likely have a definitive conclusion this week.