04-10-2019, 04:37 AM
And here is another item we can't really answer (our emphasis):
So the conundrum is that:
Quote:The last time Pareteum broke out the backlog by year was in their AGM presentation in September. It was $375 million at the time. Here it is:THE AMAZING CHART I JUST CAN'T BUY---PARETEUM: TEUM-NASD - Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin | Seeking Alpha
What is curious about this table is that the 2019 revenue backlog is $84 million. At a glance that makes sense – the guide was higher than that after all. But wait, Pareteum has made two acquisitions that are included in guidance. This backlog should be for pre-acquisition Pareteum as neither acquisition was closed. What’s more, Pareteum has added more than $200 million to the backlog since that time. One would think some of that would fall into 2019. If we take the SEC projections for iPass and Artilium at face value, the 2019 guidance is only forecasting $15 million to $25 million for stand-alone Pareteum. How does that align with this massive backlog? It’s actually lower revenue than stand-alone Pareteum had in 2018. Again, I’m left wondering how to make the numbers work..
![[Image: 365869-15527583519096642.jpg]](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/3/16/365869-15527583519096642.jpg)
So the conundrum is that:
- Company guidance for 2019 revenue is $105M-$115M (which was already lower by quite a bit compared to the November iPass presentation where they had this at $144M, the difference being 80% versus 100% conversion).
- But on the AGM in August last year, they guided backlog at $84M for 2019, supposedly excluding Artilium and iPass (which together were guided at nearly $75M in revenues before the acquisition, $43.3M for iPass and $31.6M for Artilium).
- It's not as bad as the author of above article claims, stand alone Pareteum (ex Artilium and iPass) revenue is $30M-$40M, not the $15M-$25M the author claims, but that's still much less than the $84M of backlog it supposedly has in 2019 (and probably more as backlog has since grown considerably). This suggest a conversion rate well below 50%. We will know a lot more when we have the Q1 numbers, but this isn't increasing my confidence..