Stylized facts

[admin]

I think you brush the fact that over a time when backlog basically doubled, they really materially declined revenue guidance by tens of millions of dollars all to easily under the carpet.

Take the following stylized facts:

• The $105M-$115M 2019 guidance implies something like $40M for Pareteum without the acquisitions
  
• In September, management guided 2019 backlog at $84 so even on these old numbers the conversion rate would be less than 50%. But backlog has doubled since September, surely 2019 backlog (they don't split this out anymore) is also considerably higher, which would make the conversion rate considerably lower.
  
• Backlog now stands at $938M, almost all of this is legacy Pareteum. 15% of that would be well over $100M. No, one could retort, it takes 90 days to sign customers op, we're already in April. Yes, but on the other hand, backlog keeps growing... 
  
• Even if you take 15% of the end of 2018 figure ($615M) that's still almost $100M.
  
• There was a reason we thought that 2019 revenue would be $150M+..
  

Whichever way I look at it, there is a growing disconnect between backlog and revenue, unless they massively exceed their own revenue guidance. I don't exclude that possibility, but no analyst is predicting that.

I still see good growth, but I also see a few dodgy customers (of the few we know of) and a seemingly growing disconnect between revenue and backlog. I'm simply concerned and have to little data to make any firm determinations one way or another.