05-02-2019, 06:21 AM
Hi admin,
Just wanted to point out that the 900m+ backlog today includes iPass. The 615m as of end 2018 was excluding iPass; including would have stood at >800m. So it seems their backlog is still growing at reasonable speed.
With regards to revenue guidance, I think its a combination of lower conversion (as guided) and the classic "beat & raise" technique. Thoughts?
Also, my additional thoughts on the Sep AGM 84m is that it includes legacy TEUM + Artilium numbers already, so quick math goes as such:
- 84 * 0.75 = 61 (80% = 67m)
- iPass 9M 2018 revenue was ~31m, full year probably ~38-40m. Assume some low growth as it gets integrated into main operations, probably get to 45m (higher than my own expectations, but for the sake of argument)
- Total = ~106 - 112m, which seems to be right in line with guidance of 105 - 115m
I actually did my own DD after reading your article on SeekingAlpha, so thanks for that. Was going to take a long position post-AAPL & AMD earnings but the stock popped the past couple of days. Waiting for the price to settle for a bit and hopefully size up before earnings.
Cheers!
Just wanted to point out that the 900m+ backlog today includes iPass. The 615m as of end 2018 was excluding iPass; including would have stood at >800m. So it seems their backlog is still growing at reasonable speed.
With regards to revenue guidance, I think its a combination of lower conversion (as guided) and the classic "beat & raise" technique. Thoughts?
Also, my additional thoughts on the Sep AGM 84m is that it includes legacy TEUM + Artilium numbers already, so quick math goes as such:
- 84 * 0.75 = 61 (80% = 67m)
- iPass 9M 2018 revenue was ~31m, full year probably ~38-40m. Assume some low growth as it gets integrated into main operations, probably get to 45m (higher than my own expectations, but for the sake of argument)
- Total = ~106 - 112m, which seems to be right in line with guidance of 105 - 115m
I actually did my own DD after reading your article on SeekingAlpha, so thanks for that. Was going to take a long position post-AAPL & AMD earnings but the stock popped the past couple of days. Waiting for the price to settle for a bit and hopefully size up before earnings.
Cheers!

