Decreased comfort level

[admin]

Hi admin,

Just wanted to point out that the 900m+ backlog today includes iPass. The 615m as of end 2018 was excluding iPass; including would have stood at >800m. So it seems their backlog is still growing at reasonable speed.

With regards to revenue guidance, I think its a combination of lower conversion (as guided) and the classic "beat & raise" technique. Thoughts?

Also, my additional thoughts on the Sep AGM 84m is that it includes legacy TEUM + Artilium numbers already, so quick math goes as such:
- 84 * 0.75 = 61 (80% = 67m)
- iPass 9M 2018 revenue was ~31m, full year probably ~38-40m. Assume some low growth as it gets integrated into main operations, probably get to 45m (higher than my own expectations, but for the sake of argument)
- Total = ~106 - 112m, which seems to be right in line with guidance of 105 - 115m

I actually did my own DD after reading your article on SeekingAlpha, so thanks for that. Was going to take a long position post-AAPL & AMD earnings but the stock popped the past couple of days. Waiting for the price to settle for a bit and hopefully size up before earnings.

Cheers!

Hello throwaway1,

Yes, I realize the backlog today contains iPass, but I'm not at all sure iPass backlog is significant, to be honest and I think connecting customers to their WiFi network and handoff tech is much simpler so deals don't tend to generate much backlog, but I could be wrong here.

You seem to take that $84M AGM number as revenue, and if it included Artilium you indeed end up close to guidance numbers. However:

• The $84M is a backlog number (the last time they split that out for individual years), not a revenue number (but it could be they included Artilium expected 2019 revenue here, we don't know).
  
• You could be right about the Sep AGM $84M 2019 backlog number including Artilium already but we simply don't know. Even though, we also don't know whether Artilium's backlog is significant, at first sight it doesn't seem to be. While backlog has greatly increased, for what I have seen all the increases came from PRs announcing new deals, without any unexplained jump in backlog that could be ascribed to Artilium. Of course these new announcements could contain some backlog for Artilium. iPass is too recent so I don't think it's possible they added much to backlog.
  

Doing your own DD is always appreciated!