05-07-2019, 01:00 PM
(05-07-2019, 09:16 AM)philipcarl3 Wrote: What a joke. You do know SHU is being mocked all over the SA comments and other msg boards, right?
Actually, the joke is on those who had no concerns whatsoever, simply consider the facts:
1) The Oil & Gas Traders Bulletin (OGTB) publishes an article with a number of serious accusations, which were dealt with by longs with the usual combination of derision and accusations.
2) Crucial in these OGTB accusations is that he unearthed a whole PR announcing companies which were supposedly responsible for $50M of backlog. What set this PR apart is that the companies were actually named, and according to OGTB these were all dodgy.
3) For weeks, this claim went completely unopposed, we seem to have been the only longs who took it seriously, simply because if that PR is indeed dodgy, then numerous others can be dodgy as well and that has potentially very serious implications. We didn't want to find out the hard way so we cut the SHU position in half.
4) It's only quite recent that one person (called MovingSphere) took on the claim, and showed that one of the companies mentioned in that PR is large enough to be able to account for most, if not all of the $50M backlog. We agreed with him pretty soon.
5) Then, even more recently and here on this forum another poster (throwaway1) argued that another of the accusations from OGTB could be wrong as well, the $84M of 2019 backlog mentioned in the AVG presentation could include Artilium. We agreed with that possibility as well, that could be the case (apparently management is addressing the issue tomorrow), we don't know but it's possible, like throwaway suggested.
So basically our most urgent fears were actually reduced by two concrete posters, one offering new information, the other one making a useful suggestion. This is actually the reason we started this forum, together people know more. We are not always right and open to new info. We don't see any shame in that.
What we find alarming is that almost nobody (bar one) checked the info from the OGTB article, almost all longs (bar one) simply ignored or ridiculed it, without even checking.
Mind you, we're as guilty of that as 99% of the longs, we assumed the OGTB info credible (indeed, all the other companies mentioned in that famous PR are distinctly dodgy, in now way can they account for anywhere near $50M in backlog) and we don't know OGTB as a BS artist. We should have checked.
But so should 99% of the longs who simply ignored it (or ridiculed, or ascribed dark motives to authors, rather than dealing with what they wrote, etc.)
It looks like it works this time, but we've seen that sort of cognitive dissonance lead to serious disasters. Simply wishing away potentially bad information might work a few times, until it doesn't.